Fantasy Football expectations for the 2023 Arizona Cardinals were borderline non-existent, especially once Kyler Murray hit the PUP while recovering from a torn ACL. Yet, they’ve proven to be a feisty bunch, with James Conner and Marquise Brown maintaining steady fantasy value as QB Joshua Dobbs vastly exceeds expectations.
The veterans aren’t the only players flashing fantasy upside, however. In Week 4, rookie WR Michael Wilson exploded for over 25 FPs. Was this a one-week mirage, or the precursor to a major breakout? How much FAAB and Week 5 Waiver Wire priority should Michael Wilson command?
Let’s take a look.
WHO IS MICHAEL WILSON?
As shown via PlayerProfiler, Michael Wilson brings many strengths, and some question marks, to the table.
Indeed, Wilson’s 40-yard dash score is a bit underwhleming (37th percentile). Yet, when adjusted for his impressive size (6’1″, 216 lbs), his speed is still solid (66th percentile).
Moreover, Wilson ranked in the 70th+ percentile in Burst (76th), Agility (79th), and Catch Radius (73rd). All these traits show up on tape — he moves much more nimbly than a man his size ever should be able to. He also makes the tough grabes more often than not.
Unfortunately, his production profile from college was lackluster, largely due to injuries. Wilson did not come close to reaching his potential in college, missing significant time with a foot injury in both his junior and senior years. Despite adding a fifth year of eligibility, Wilson then suffering a season-ending injury after six games that year.
When Wilson did play he caught some eyes, though. That’s why the Cardinals used their 3rd round pick on him, and that’s why he’s been in the lineup for every game this season.
Michael Wilson’s Usage and Production so far in 2023:
Even before hitting a real-game, Wilson built a very solid training camp drumbeat of buzz. He was regularly featured by @32BeatWriters (a top-notch news account) for daily highlight reels:
Considering he’s the only Cardinals WR above 5’11” or 180 lbs, it made sense Wilson was carving himself out a clear role and niche in the offense. He simply can do things no one else in that positional room i capable of.
More importantly, Wilson has carried the training camp hype into a major role so far in the regular season. As illustrated by FantasyLife’s Utilization Hub:
91% of the routes in Week 1! An absurd aDot of 16 on the year, including two games above 22 yards, also highlights the high-upside nature to his role. They are maximizing his vertical skillset and jump ball abilities, and giving Wilson chances for splash plays.
Most recently in Week 4, Wilson’s aDot did come down quite a bit (still a respectable 9.57). However, he became the main go-to guy over the middle of the field and in the Red Zone.
Ultimately, Wilson hauled in all 7 of his targets for 76 yards and 2 TDs for an impressive 27 FPs. This all came against a usually-stout 49ers defense, too. One TD in particular was beautiful, where the ball was zipped between two defenders and Wilson got leveled but still held on for the score.
Four of his catches were for first downs, supporting preseason notions that Wilson was becoming a go-to guy for moving the chains, and a safty valve when his QBs were under duress. His Week 4 touchdowns were the only touchdowns the Cardinals scored. It’s also worth noting that since Week 1, Wilson has caught literally every ball that has been thrown his way.
Wilson now has at least 55 yards or a score in three straight games and is up to 237 yards and two touchdowns through four games. He has gone from 9 FPs, to 11 FPs, and now 27 FPs and is absolutely trending the right way.
The 17% target share was Wilson’s highest on the early season, too. It vastly outshadowed Rondale Moore‘s 5% share, despite Moore actually seeing more routes (85%), which emphasizes Wilson’s growing and more diverse role. Expect those route opportunities to flip soon, too.
HOW MUCH FAAB SHOULD I SPEND ON MICHAEL WILSON? 2023 Rest of Season Outlook
In an otherwise lackluster Week 5 Waiver Wire, Michael Wilson is among the clear top priorities. Jameson Williams may come with a higher ceiling, but Wilson arguably carries the safer floor. Wilson is the better bet for immediate production if you need someone to toss in right now.
Josh Dobbs has far-exceeded any expectations, and is keeping this offense (and its fantasy value) afloat despite some brutal early-season matchups (49ers, Cowboys). Upcoming matchups vs. the Bengals, Rams, Seahawks, and Ravens are all neutral-to-solid, too. Dobbs should keep slinging, and Wilson is quickly becoming his No.2 WR target behind only Marquise Brown (27% targets this year).
Zach Ertz has been surprisingly involved, too, as his 25% target share leads all tight ends. Still, Wilson can do everything Ertz can over the middle of the field, just better.
Despite encouraging signs in the preseason and first three weeks, Michael Wilson fell under the radar (just 1% rostered). After his Week 4 blowup, that will no longer be the case.
Wilson is primed and ready to become that treasured fantasy security blanket, high-floor guy. He also carries big-play potential. With such a well-rounded skillset and growing role, Wilson is well-worth 18-20%+ of your FAAB. If you’re thin at WR (and I am as a guy who drafted Mike Williams and Tee Higgins), bump the bid up even higher to 25%-30%. He may not be worth a full No.1 Waiver Claim burn, but is well-worth a Top-5 claim if you need a wideout.
In short: Wilson has all the tools and the role to prove his monster Week 4 was not just a fluke spike, and is more the rule than exception.
