Fantasy Football Week 5 Buy-Low, Sell-High (2023): Go After Tony Pollard, Ship Off Brandon Aiyuk Based on Expected Fantasy Points

Welcome to our fantasy football Week 5 buy-low, sell-high based on our Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) model. Four weeks into the season is officially enough time to tell what data is real and what is not.

At this point, we can get a good read on where our teams are at and where they’re going. In that vein, I will be tailoring this week’s players on both extremes (0-4 and 4-0).

Expected fantasy points essentially show what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of xFP, click here.

The main purpose of using the xFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers and buy players who see plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of our very own Jackson Barrett’s trading strategy, click here. In addition, we publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find xFP data for each player, including average carries, targets, and air yards. And below the chart, you’ll find our Week 4 players to buy-low and sell-high, based on the xFP model.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players we want to buy low and sell high in Week 4.

WEEK 5 BUY-LOW

Tony Pollard is not a traditional buy-low in that he hasn’t really been “bad,” and he still commands good value in return. However, the stud RB market is pretty dry right now, and Pollard’s owners may have noticed that he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1.

Realistically, the rest of his production has been what you’d want and expect, so once the TD trend reverses, we’re looking at a bonafide top-five RB this season. Based on Fantasy Pros data, he has had 22 carries in the red zone (and three targets), so conventional wisdom indicates that he’ll start getting in there sooner rather than later.

He’s a great player to target if he’s on an underachieving team and the owner thinks he was more hype than substance. This is a fine player to go after, regardless of your current position in the standings.

Okay, so I’m recommending some expensive players today, but they’re totally worth it. This is a play I am only suggesting for my 3-1 and 4-0 crew (although I’d make an exception for a 2-2 team with depth). An old trick I love to employ is trading for players when they enter their bye week.

Many people only view their teams as a week-to-week thing and lack the foresight to think about the big picture. If you’re 4-0, you should be thinking about winning a championship and how to field the best playoff roster possible (within reason, you still need to get there). It doesn’t matter that you’ll get no production from Austin Ekeler this week. You just need him out there in the money weeks. I am targeting Ekeler because he hasn’t played since Week 1.

It is likely that there are some desperate teams who can’t afford to have Ekeler sit on their bench for yet another week. If you have some over-performers available to package together for Ekeler and can afford a week of him sitting out, then do it. He gets Denver in Weeks 14 and 17, and Las Vegas isn’t exactly a juggernaut in Week 15 either. Ekeler is a must-have long-term play for contenders if you can get him.

WEEK 5 SELL-HIGH

This one is a hard one because I firmly believe that Nico Collins is a talented player. However, he’s playing at an unsustainable pace. Raise your hand if you think CJ Stroud will end up with over 5,000 yards this year (the pace he’s currently on). My hands are firmly in my lap right now.

I felt strongly a few weeks ago that Dameon Pierce was a guy to buy, and I still feel this way. Part of that reasoning is that defenses will adjust to Stroud, and this offense will have more balance. I also really believe in Tank Dell. The kid has the kind of spirit that you can’t teach. So, if Dell is going to get his, Pierce will get more involved, and Stroud will slow down… it leaves less on the bone for Nico.

Either way, Nico is not a must-sell by any means but coming off of this week’s stat line (7-168-2), he’ll likely never have more value. If you can get a high-end RB2 that you believe in or buy-low on a more proven WR option, I’d strongly consider doing it. If not, there’s no harm in testing the waters and then hanging on to Nico, as I don’t expect him to turn into a pumpkin either. Plus, he’ll play Tennessee in Weeks 15 and 17.

Brandon Aiyuk was one of my most targeted players in the pre-season. I drafted this guy everywhere I could, and I love him as a player. So, what’s changed? Absolutely nothing. I still love Aiyuk. However, I have to react to what I’m seeing and what I’m seeing is pretty clear. Aiyuk had 148 yards last week on only six catches and six targets (i.e., heavily inflated yards per catch). This production came with a banged-up Deebo Samuel registering no targets. Otherwise, Deebo had big games in Weeks 2 and 3 when Aiyuk was dealing with a shoulder injury. It looks like we’re in a situation where San Francisco has too many mouths to feed, and when both top receivers are healthy, we will have to rely on super efficiency to get production out of Aiyuk.

What you choose to do with Aiyuk largely depends on the makeup of your team. If you have a low-variance team and can afford the weekly swings of Aiyuk (and frankly, Deebo and George Kittle, too), then top-20 or so WR numbers could be there at the end of the season. Yet, if you need a stable week-to-week producer, Aiyuk’s target volume is too low to provide the consistency you want.

I would move Aiyuk for a player in the WR2 range who gets more consistent targets as the top option on their team (a Michael Pittman or Marquise Brown type). If you have a winning record, hold on yo Aiyuk. If you need wins now, sell for consistency.