Follow the yellow brick road! Follow it to the waiver wire and strike gold on at least one of Tank Dell, Jayden Reed, or Marvin Mims.
TANK DELL (33% ROSTERED)
Dell is coming off of back-to-back blow-up weeks.
Across the last two games, Dell has caught 12 of 17 targets for 217 yards and two touchdowns. How can we be sure that Dell isn’t just a mirage and/or could hit the proverbial rookie wall?
Look at Dell’s effectiveness at producing vs. zone and man coverage schemes. He’s putting up a Y/RR total similar to pristine route runners like Amari Cooper, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DeVonta Smith. Dell is making his hay by cooking man coverage even better than the likes of Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.
Regarding opportunity, Dell doesn’t need a touchdown to offer fantasy goodness. He’s averaged around 80 air yards per game at a lucrative 12.2 aDot. Dell, who is seeing a 24% target rate on his routes, is one of CJ Stroud’s favorite targets when he’s on the field.
After all, Stroud did pound the table for the Texans to add Dell to his weapons cabinet shortly after being picked at No. 2 overall.
“He talked to me after the Combine,” Dell said. “‘I like how you run routes. I like how you play football.’ He said he had been watching me and stuff like that. I told him vice versa and I appreciated him. After he got drafted, I sent him congrats and I told him, ‘Tell them come get me.’”
With a soft matchup in week four and a likely pass-heavy game script for the rest of the season, Dell (only rostered in about 58% of leagues) should be a heavy priority on the waiver wire.
MARVIN MIMS (26%)
Say what you will about Russell Wilson being washed up, but that gorgeous moonball he slings is still a work of art. And which wide receiver is Wilson’s favorite canvas to paint with moonball magic?
Need I go on? Well, if you insist!
When the goat speaks, we listen. In this instance, we aren’t talking about Tom Brady. We mean Scott Barrett.
Well, with an analytical profile like that, why isn’t Mims running the wide receiver room in Denver? The answer isn’t that simple.
Let’s wind the clocks back to the end of the last fantasy season. Nathaniel Hackett has ruined everybody’s lives by emptying a can of garbage on the football field and calling it an offensive scheme. Deservedly, he gets run out of town before his only season is over.
All of a sudden, Wilson looks rejuvenated. Jerry Jeudy is absolutely balling out. Courtland Sutton still stinks, but what can you do?
Now it’s 2023, and Sean Payton has taken over. Mims was his very first draft pick, and promises of a flowery new offense were made, and like a true politician, they weren’t kept. Instead, Mims has seen only nine targets across three games.
Regardless, with those nine targets, Mims has done something absolutely beautiful. He is leading the Broncos in receiving, even though Sutton and Jeudy have 26 more combined targets than him.
While on the field, Mims sees 33% of the targets at a staggering 23.6 aDot. What’s criminal is that Mims only runs a route on 22.9% of the Broncos’ plays.
Perhaps it’s the fallacy of rational coaching, but Payton has a long history of being a brilliant offensive mind, and Mims should see his usage increase as the season goes on.
With the risk that maybe he never sees more time on the field, he cannot be prioritized about Dell, but the upside Mims drips with makes him the clear second priority on the waiver wire this week.
JAYDEN REED (21%)
In Christian Watson’s absence, Reed has seen a consistent stream of targets in each of his three games. In fact, he’s seen 15 in the last two weeks.
Let’s take a peek at his last two weeks:
- Week 2 – 4 rec. 37 yards, 2 TDs (8 targets)
- Week 3 – 3 rec. 63 yards (7 targets)
With heralded pass-catching running back Aaron Jones also sidelined, it’s easy to see how Reed could be lost in the shuffle once Watson and Jones return. Reed is likely relegated to the fourth or fourth read in the offense, alongside Luke Musgrave.
While on the field, Reed clearly trusts new Packers signal-caller Jordan Love. In fantasy football, opportunity is king, and, when on the field, Reed’s 28% target rate and his 23.3% market share of the Packers’ air yards is about as royal as it gets.
However, with his market share of the team’s routes in jeopardy, Reed is a lower priority and should not be targeted over Dell or Mims.
IN SUMMARY
To summarize, Tank Dell is absolutely the No. 1 priority if he is out there. He is already producing Quality WR2 numbers since gaining a full-time role. Meanwhile, Marvin Mims has perhaps the highest ceiling of everyone on this list but remains just a stash until he earns trustworthy usage. The glimpses we are getting are game-changing, but Mims is tough to trust until he runs at least 50% of the routes. Reed is the lowest priority, but still intriguing and more usable than Mims right now if you’re in a pinch.
