Welcome back to Thursday night picks, presented by PrizePicks. Week 17 is upon us, and with it comes the final installment of Thursday Night Football in 2022. It’s been a hell of a ride so far, with some incredibly boring games early on, a couple of shocking scores, and all of us having to nail down the muscle memory of pulling up Amazon Prime instead of looking for the game on TV. Meanwhile, we’re looking for a strong week of picks to finish over .500 for the year on our TNF selections.
If you’re new here, each week I’ll be giving out four picks:
- One game line pick (Spread or Over/Under)
- One player prop OVER via PrizePicks
- One player prop UNDER via PrizePicks
- One TD scorer
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Week 17 kicks off with a matchup that’s quickly losing steam due to injuries, as the 7-8 Titans host the 11-4 Cowboys in Nashville. Tennessee is expected to be without Derrick Henry in addition to Ryan Tannehill and a number of defensive starters as they fight to regain the lead in the putrid AFC South. Dallas, meanwhile, has already clinched a playoff birth and is primarily playing for the highest wild-card seed at this point. The Cowboys are 12-point favorites on the road, with the over/under set at 39.5.
Season Record: 30-32, +3.8 units
GAME PICK: DALLAS COWBOYS -12
This is a tough one as the Titans are at home and have significantly more to play for than the Cowboys in this one, but Tennessee could be in some serious trouble. Along with Henry (who’s listed as doubtful) and Tannehill, the Titans will be without four defensive starters in Jeffery Simmons, Amani Hooker, Bud Dupree, and Zach Cunningham. Malik Willis will start again for the Titans and hasn’t shown much promise this year, completing just over 50% of his passes for just 4.5 yards per attempt.
Dallas’ defense has taken some steps back in recent weeks but is still the league’s sixth-ranked scoring defense overall. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott and the offense have scored over 40 points in four of its last six games, and now get the benefit of facing the second-worst pass defense in the league with several starters out. It seems like the only way Dallas doesn’t cover this line is if they completely give up in the second half, which is possible, but I still think they’ll dominate long enough to get us a win here.
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT OVER 55.5 RUSHING YARDS
This pick is heavily based on the assumption that Dallas will be winning big and running the clock out for most of the fourth quarter. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have pretty evenly split running back duties for Dallas this year, and with both players’ rushing totals hovering right around 50 yards, either (or more likely, both) could be good picks. Neither player was a major factor in last week’s win over the Eagles, but Zeke logged seven more carries and 36 more yards, and I think he’ll carry that momentum into a strong performance in this game. It also helps that Pollard has yet to practice this week and will be a game-time decision.
DAK PRESCOTT UNDER 30.5 PASS ATTEMPTS
Again, we’re assuming that Dallas will be riding a decent-sized lead into the second half with this one. Even if the game’s close, we should have got a good shot here. Prescott averages under 32 attempts per game in 2022 and had 35 last week in a game where he threw for just under 350 yards. Dak could still make a significant impact on this game while attempting less than 30 passes, and I think that’s what we’re in for here.
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER: HASSAN HASKINS +170
Tennessee’s running back situation is bleak with Derrick Henry and Dontrelle Hilliard both out of the picture. Hassan Haskins is expected to get the start and although he has just 11 career carries, he’ll likely get a good portion of work in this one in an offense that desperately needs a decent ground game to be successful. It’s not often you can get a team’s starting RB at odds like this — Dallas’ backs are -175 and +100 — so despite the riskiness, I like this one.