Happy Thanksgiving, Wolves!
We’re back with a special edition of Thursday night picks, presented by PrizePicks. We head into an exciting Thanksgiving triple-header coming off a 2-2 week in Week 11. We lost on Robert Tonyan‘s yardage over and Treylon Burks’ yardage under — the latter of which was dead on Tennessee’s first drive as he caught a 43-yard pass from Ryan Tannehill — but we got the over, and nailed the huge value play with an Austin Hooper TD at +550 to finish up 4.3 units for the night.
If you’ve checked out this series before, you know what we typically feature for Thursday Night Football: a spread or over/under pick, a player prop over, a player prop under, and an anytime touchdown scorer pick. But with the customary three games on tap for Thanksgiving, we wanted to mix it up a bit. Instead, we’ll give out one game pick (spread or over/under) and one player prop (via PrizePicks, of course) for each game, followed by a handful of other wagers we like for the day.
PrizePicks is also running a promo for Thanksgiving that you’ll want to take advantage of: they’re setting Justin Jefferson‘s over/under for receiving yards at 0.5. Yes, if one of the top receivers in the league gets one yard, that’s a win for your card. It doesn’t get much better than having a free square to kick off a three-game slate.
Lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PrizePicks. If you’ve never played PrizePicks, it allows users to pick and combine two to five player props to win up to 10x on an entry. If you’re a player prop bettor who typically uses a sportsbook, sign up for PrizePicks using our link below to view and take advantage of their very, very generous lines.
The NFL lineup for Thanksgiving 2022 is as follows:
- Buffalo Bills (-9.5) at Detroit Lions; over/under 54
- New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10); over/under 45.5
- New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5); over/under 42.5
Season Record: 23-21, +7.7 units
BUFFALO BILLS VS. DETROIT LIONS
Game Pick: Over 54
Historically, the Lions kick us off in the early game on Thanksgiving with a boring game in which they lose. And they’ll probably lose this one, too, but I personally think we’re in for a shootout in Detroit.
The Bills have been in Detroit for a while now as their game against Cleveland last week was moved to Ford Field due to a snowstorm. They put up 31 points on Cleveland, who doesn’t have a great defense, but it’s certainly stronger than Detroit’s last-place unit. Detroit also lost Jeff Okudah to a concussion last week, and he’s not expected to be cleared in time for this matchup, which thins out their already spotty secondary even more.
The main question becomes: can Detroit keep up?
The Lions put up 31 points of their own last week and boast the league’s eighth-ranked scoring offense. D’Andre Swift and DJ Chark are both healthy as well, providing more weapons for Jared Goff and Detroit’s offense. The Bills are also preparing to be without Tremaine Edmunds again this week, which opens up a lot of space in the middle of their defense. Neither team excels at slowing down the opposing passing game, and I think both offenses are in for a big Thanksgiving Day.
Player Prop Pick: Jared Goff Over 240.5 Pass Yards
Considering we’re expecting a high-scoring game, and provided Buffalo gets out to a lead as we expect, Jared Goff will likely be forced to mount a comeback in the second half. This opens up an opportunity for Goff, who’s averaged about 244 yards per game this season. Goff hasn’t topped this number since Week 7 against Miami but he should be in store for a 40-attempt day with an offense that continues to get healthier.
NEW YORK GIANTS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS
Game Pick: Giants +10
The Cowboys enter this game off an absolute beatdown of the Vikings last week, while the Giants fell 31-18 to the Lions at home. The Giants have been a surprise at 7-3 this year, and they’ve only had two games in which the final point margin was more than one possession. I think that trend continues this week against a Dallas defense that isn’t great against the run and yields a good amount of rushing yards to quarterbacks. Daniel Jones loves to get out and run when the pocket collapses, and he should have some luck with that in this matchup.
Player Prop Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 76.5 Rushing Yards
As mentioned, Dallas isn’t great against the run — 26th in the league to be exact. Saquon Barkley is coming off his worst game of the year with 22 yards on 15 carries and will be determined to bounce back against the defense that’s allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to running backs in 2022. New York’s chance at keeping this one close hinges on Barkley’s effectiveness and I think he’ll be a huge emphasis in their game plan — especially with Wan’Dale Robinson done for the season.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Game Pick: Under 42.5
The Patriots’ offensive struggles have been well-documented and although Mac Jones put up strong efficiency numbers against the Jets last week, his offense has had a lot of trouble finishing drives in recent weeks. Minnesota’s also allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to running backs this year, so Mac may not have much help in generating offense.
On the other sideline, we have primetime Kirk Cousins going up against the league’s fourth-ranked pass defense that’s tied for fourth with 11 interceptions. Minnesota’s offense struggled mightily against Dallas last week and they’re in for another tough matchup in primetime on Thanksgiving. Don’t count on too much offense in this one.
Player Prop Pick: Rhomandre Stevenson Under 16 Fantasy Points
Rhomandre Stevenson has been New England’s top back this year, but yielded a good chunk of carries to Damien Harris last week, who’s struggled with injury and illness in recent weeks but returned with 65 yards on eight carries in Week 11. Stevenson will still lead the backfield in carries, but it appears New England is moving into a committee approach with their two lead backs and I don’t think Stevenson gets enough volume against a solid run defense to reach 16 fantasy points.
OTHER PROPS WE LIKE:
- Tony Pollard over 21.5 receiving yards
- Stefon Diggs over 0.5 receiving TDs
- Kirk Cousins under 1.5 passing TDs