After a 2-2 performance in Week 8, we’re back with more Thursday night picks, presented by PrizePicks. Lamar Jackson didn’t give us anything we needed last week in Tampa, as he didn’t run for a TD, and he attempted a career-high 30 passes in the first half (for some reason) and hit his passing yards over before the third quarter had ended. Ryan Succop did come through with multiple field goals on the night, and Tom Brady drove the Bucs down the field to hit the over as the ink was drying on his divorce papers, allowing us to salvage a .500 showing on the night.
If you’re new here, each week for the Thursday game I’ll be giving out four picks:
- One game line pick (Spread or Over/Under)
- One player prop OVER via PrizePicks
- One player prop UNDER via PrizePicks
- One TD scorer
Lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PrizePicks. If you’ve never played PrizePicks, it allows users to pick and combine two to five player props to win up to 10x on an entry. If you’re a player prop bettor who typically uses a sportsbook, sign up for PrizePicks using our link below to view and take advantage of their very, very generous lines.
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Week 9 kicks off with a Thursday night matchup that has the makings of a blowout, as the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles travel to Houston to face the 1-5-1 Texans. Houston has been getting gashed in the run game as of late, and last week’s 17-10 loss to the Titans was no different. Meanwhile, the Eagles look to improve to 8-0 and continue their incredible run as we approach the midway point of the season. The Eagles come in as 14-point favorites in this one, with an over/under of 45.
Season Record: 16-16, +0.6 units
Let’s go!
GAME TOTAL: OVER 45 POINTS
This pick would mean three consecutive TNF overs, which was unheard of in the early part of the year when Denver was stinking it up on Thursday night seemingly every other week. But the tides have turned in recent weeks, and I think that continues this week in Houston.
The Eagles offensively are a juggernaut. Jalen Hurts is in the discussion for NFL MVP while on pace for over 5,100 yards of total offense, and he’s got a slew of weapons at his disposal. Last week it was AJ Brown leading the charge with 156 yards and three TDs, but DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and others are also threats to any opposing defenses. Not to mention Miles Sanders, who’s rushing for over 80 yards per game with five TDs. All of this star power has come together to form the 3rd-leading scoring offense in the NFL with 28 points per game. Philly now goes up against a Houston defense that’s 17th against the pass and dead last against the run, and they should definitely be able to put up some serious points.
The question for this pick then becomes: can the Texans keep up? Vegas clearly doesn’t think so based on the two touchdown spread on this matchup. One point in the Texans’ favor is Philly’s run defense, which is right in the middle of the league allowing just under 115 yards per game. Houston needs to get their run game going early to have any chance of generating offense, and Dameon Pierce should have some luck in doing so. Brandin Cooks remains on Houston’s roster despite rumored trade talks, which gives Davis Mills a fighting chance in keeping Houston’s offense alive in this one.
Ultimately, Philly should win this one pretty easily, but that could also mean some garbage time reps for Philly’s backups in the fourth quarter, like in their last game against Pittsburgh. This may allow for some late scoring from Houston that won’t impact the result of the game, but will get us over 45 points.
MILES SANDERS OVER 79.5 RUSHING YARDS
I’ve harped plenty on Houston’s inability to stop the run game already, but let’s just take a look at their opponents’ leading rushers over the past few weeks:
Week 8: Derrick Henry – 32 carries, 219 yards, two TDs
Week 7: Josh Jacobs – 20 carries, 143 yards, three TDs
Week 6: Travis Etienne – 10 carries, 71 yards (7.1 YPC)
They also gave up 157 yards to Khalil Herbert in Week 3 and 161 yards to Jonathan Taylor in Week 1. It’s truly insane how a professional defense can be as inept as Houston is at such a large aspect of the sport they play. This line of 79.5 is right around Miles Sanders’ per-game average for the year, and he’s topped this number against defenses like Minnesota, who’s ranked 8th against the run, and Jacksonville, who’s ranked 12th. As long as he gets around 15 attempts, which he’s gotten in five of seven games in 2022, Sanders should top this number easily.
AJ BROWN UNDER 70.5 REC YARDS
This one seems a little crazy after his explosion for 156 yards and three TDs last week, but a performance like that is bound to put a target on a receiver’s back in the following game. Despite Houston’s defensive flaws in the run game, they’re respectable against the pass, boasting two of PFF’s top 30 CBs in Desmond King II and Steven Nelson, and they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards to WRs this season.
Brown will get his catches because he’s a superstar in an offense that prioritizes getting him involved, but with good coverage and guys like Jonathan Owens, who’s second among DBs in tackles, to limit the damage, I think Houston can keep Brown under 70 in this one.
ANYTIME TD SCORER: DALLAS GOEDERT +200
Dallas Goedert has been a huge piece of this offense’s success as well as Jalen Hurts’ growth in 2022. He’s a major safety valve for the young QB and comes to the rescue seemingly every time the Eagles need a third-down conversion or a big play.
Goedert is ninth among NFL tight ends in receptions with 32, and third in yards with 421, but has just one TD on the year despite five red zone targets, which is second on the team to AJ Brown. I think Goedert is due for a blow-up performance this week, even against a Houston that is decent at slowing down opposing TEs.
