Do you feel it? That feeling of pressure for all those teams teetering around .500? The fantasy playoffs are starting to come into view.
The first few weeks consist of outlandish takes based on little to no data to go on. Remember when Garrett Wilson was about to take over as a bonafide fantasy football star? Or when Jared Goff was a locked in weekly fantasy start and the Lions looked like the best offense in football?
Perhaps it’s time we stop trying to outsmart the truth and let it have its day? Here’s the truth: fantasy analysts get it wrong too. The mathematics behind chaos theory show that small differences made to conditions can create drastic changes, rendering long-term prediction next to impossible.
That’s why fantasy football is a weekly game, and we are on to week eight!
FAVORABLE WR MATCHUPS
Tyler Boyd vs Cleveland secondary
Perhaps it’s because he’s been facing CB3 coverage for much of the year with players like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins commanding attention, but Boyd has been reliable when given the opportunity.
Boyd ranks 16th in the NFL in YAC per reception despite ranking 56th in air yards per target. Boyd has scored 20.8 fantasy points over expectation this year, nearly a clean three points over expectation per game.
Who can forget that beautiful 60-yard bomb against the Falcons in week seven?
Boyd and Joe Burrow have tremendous chemistry, and he thrives when given the opportunity, as evidenced by Boyd’s game log with Burrow and either Chase or Boyd not playing.
That’s not to say he doesn’t come without risk. Chase’s injury will force more attention to be paid to Boyd. The projected uptick in targets should keep Boyd afloat in the revamped Bengals aerial attack.
It helps when Boyd expects to face Greg Newsome II who is the Browns primary slot receiver. Boyd, who lines up in the slot on around 85% of his routes, scores a respectable 0.36 fantasy points per route while Newsome allows 0.28 fantasy points per route in coverage.
Other favorable matchups: Drake London vs Carolina Panthers, Wan’Dale Robinson vs Seattle Seahawks, Brandon Aiyuk vs Los Angeles Rams
AVOID THESE WR MATCHUPS
Courtland Sutton vs Tyson Campbell (proj. shadow)
Let Russ cook! Chef Hackett and Russ are about to serve a delicious main course against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London… right?
Surely a team loaded with Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ “Moonball” Hamler can boogy on a Jaguars team that ranks 20th in adjusted defensive DVOA.
Sometimes I crack myself up.
Denver is 31st in adjusted offensive DVOA. In other words, this offense needs to be lit up and thrown in the dumpster.
Campbell has performed admirably as the top corner for the Jaguars. He has allowed an average of 0.21 fantasy points on his 230 routes run in coverage and has been targeted on 17% of his coverage routes. In other words, Campbell is causing issues for opposing WR1s.
Dysfunctional offense? Check. Ineffective play caller? Check. Good shadow corner on the other side of the field? Checks all around.
Other risky matchups: Diontae Johnson/George Pickens vs Philadelphia Eagles, Terry McLaurin vs Stephon Gilmore (proj. shadow), Michael Gallup vs Chicago Bears
