Week 3 was not very kind to us. Between injuries and duds from many stars alike, it wasn’t much to write home about from a results perspective. This week offers some pretty glaring chalk plays that should be very highly owned, but we have some additional pivot spots we might look to expose.
Let’s ride!
QUARTERBACKS
Josh Allen $8,400 (at BAL)
There will be a common theme in this article featuring guys from the Bills/Ravens matchup. I mean what’s not to like about that game? Buffalo throws the ball at an absurdly high rate, and the Ravens’ secondary has been extremely bad. Especially coming off a loss, Allen will be motivated to right the ship for Buffalo. He threw the ball 63 times last week, now imagine an even higher-scoring game than what was played against Miami.
Geno Smith $5,400 (at DET)
On the complete opposite end of the spectrum here, Geno Smith provides a punt opportunity at the position while offering some upside. Seattle hasn’t been great, but when given a reasonable matchup, Smith has been able to throw multiple touchdowns and average around 20 DK points. The Lions’ defense is nothing to write home about and I could see this being a high scoring back and forth affair.
Other intriguing options:
Lamar Jackson $8,300 (vs BUF), Jalen Hurts $8,200 (vs JAX) Aaron Rodgers $6,300 (vs NE)
RUNNING BACKS
Jamaal Williams $6,100 (vs SEA)
Arguably the chalkiest play of the week, Jamaal Williams steps in as the Lions’ RB1 for an injured D’Andre Swift. Williams has dominated goal line carries, and now he’s being featured as the lead back over Craig Reynolds who I cannot imagine will take away many touches. As home favorites over Seattle, it’s a nice game script for Williams. Hopefully, the Lions’ offense doesn’t take too far a step back with the absences of Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Khalil Herbert $5,700 (at NYG)
Khalil Herbert is the other extremely chalky RB pick with David Montgomery declared out. He will once again enter the RB1 role for the Bears, where he flourished last week with 157 yards and two touchdowns. Herbert is bound for another week of high volume for an offense that refuses to throw the ball.
Rhamondre Stevenson $5,200 (at GB)
It could be a rough week for the Patriots with Brian Hoyer under center, but if there’s a glimmer of hope it could come from Rhamondre Stevenson and the running game. The Packers have one of the worst run defenses on the season, and we know Bill Belichick will protect his backup quarterback. Belichick has favored Stevenson recently and is seeing fantasy RB2 usage over Damien Harris.
Other intriguing options:
Cordarrelle Patterson $6,200 (vs CLE), Ezekiel Elliott $6,100 (vs WAS), Devin Singletary $5,900 (at BAL), Breece Hall $5,400 (at PIT)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Stefon Diggs $8,400 (at BAL)
Oh wow, look at you having the highest-priced receiver in the article, how bold! Sue me. I mean, look at this spot though. It’s the highest-scoring game on the slate and the Bills are coming off a loss. So, you know that they are going to come out scorched earth. Plus, the Ravens’ secondary is last in nearly every meaningful category. It’s just too good of a play as Stefon Diggs is averaging 10-plus targets a game.
AJ Brown $7,400 (vs JAX)
Last week in Philly, it was the DeVonta Smith show, but the powers that be have it written in the stars to be an AJ Brown week. Averaging double-digit targets a game and 33% of the team’s target share, Brown is dominating thus far despite only one touchdown. This week, he gets the Jaguars secondary and he just became a father! New children provide huge boosts to touchdown odds in the weirdest of ways.
Tyler Lockett $5,900 (at DET)
After a quiet start in the opener, Tyler Lockett has put up great numbers despite being on a struggling Seahawks team. With back-to-back games with 10-plus targets, his target share, and usage are in a great spot. What I like even more is Lockett avoiding the one-on-one matchup with corner Jeff Okudah who locked down Justin Jefferson last week. That attention should be going to DK Metcalf. Lockett is also due for positive touchdown regression.
DJ Moore $5,300 (vs ARI)
It’s been a really bad start to the year for DJ Moore. No more than three catches in any game with a receiving-high of 43. Woof. Is there a better get-right spot than this matchup against the Cardinals who rank 32nd (that’s last for those of you math wizards) in pass DVOA? I know Baker stinks, but this is the spot right here for Moore to wake up and look like the true WR1 that he can be. CMC has also missed back-to-back practices, so maybe he’s limited and sending more touches Moore’s way.
Elijah Moore $4,800 (at PIT)
Am I willing this pick into existence? Maybe. Elijah Moore hasn’t popped as most expected, that actually ended up being Garrett Wilson in Week 2. But now we have a switch in quarterback from the horrific Joe Flacco to Zach Wilson. And, who was Wilson’s favorite target all preseason? That’s right, Elijah mf’ing Moore. Lets go! It seems like a perfect buy-low spot for a guy who was carving up defenses last year during the second half of the season. He’s too talented to stay this quiet for so long.
Richie James Jr. $4,000 (vs CHI)
Do I love the Giants’ offense and passing game? No. Do I see value in Richie James Jr. at only $4k? Yes. This offense is riddled with injuries. Sterling Shepard is done for the year, Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson are still not practicing, and Kenny Golladay just flat-out stinks and can’t catch a ball anymore. That leaves Richie James along with former QB David Sills as the top receivers for Daniel Jones. It’s ugly, but James has double-digit DK points in two of their three games, and now is looking at an increased offensive role.
Other intriguing options:
Davante Adams $8,300 (vs DEN), Michael Pittman $7,200 (vs TEN), Ceedee Lamb $6,700 (vs WAS), Terry McLaurin $6,500 (at DAL), Devonta Smith $5,800 (vs JAX), Rashod Bateman $5,600 (vs BUF), Romeo Doubs $4,500 (vs NE), Zay Jones $4,200 (at PHI), Devin Duvernay $4,100 (vs BUF), Quez Watkins $3,500 (vs JAX)
TIGHT ENDS
Mark Andrews $7,100 (vs BUF)
I went back and forth between Andrews and Travis Kelce here, but I’ll give the nod to Andrews thanks to a better matchup against the Bills. Both tight ends are the clear No. 1 options, but Tampa’s defense is significantly better, while Buffalo is dealing with multiple injuries to their secondary. Plus, Andrews’ target share and usage generally spike in higher projected scoring games. Shocker, I know. When Lamar needs to put up numbers and throw the ball, he’ll be looking for Andrews.
Gerald Everett $4,000 (at HOU)
Everett finds himself with one of the best tight end matchups, across from Kamu Grugier-Hill, who grades out as one of the worst coverage linebackers. Everett has found a home with the Chargers here making an immediate impact. With a high snap share and being third on the team in targets, Everett plays a big role in the offense. With Justin Herbert potentially limited from his rib injury, shorter throws and leaning on a tight end might be more intriguing.
Other intriguing options:
Travis Kelce $7,700 (at TB), Darren Waller $5,600 (vs DEN), David Njoku $3,700 (at ATL), Tyler Conklin $3,600 (at PIT)
DEFENSE
Green Bay Packers $4,100 (vs NE)
This whole Mac Jones injury saga is very perplexing as we thought he’d be out for about a month from a bad ankle injury. Now officially declared out, it’s Brian Hoyer’s time to take over the Patriots’ offense. Hoyer hasn’t won a start in 11 games and the Packers have one of the better defenses in the league. The Hoyer-Matt Patricia combo is ripe for the picking.
Dallas Cowboys $3,500 (vs WAS)
The Cowboys’ defense has carried the team through the Dak Prescott injury. Micah Parsons has been a menace and he gets a Commanders’ offensive line that just let up nine sacks last week. Plus, Carson Wentz is a turnover machine.
Chicago Bears $2,700 (at NYG)
This game looks to be horrific. It features two bad offenses with the lowest over/under on the slate at 39 points. I don’t hate the Bears’ defense either, mostly because of Roquan Smith. The Giants’ offense is nothing inspiring, especially after losing Sterling Shepard for the year. Daniel Jones is bound for turnovers and/or sacks.
Other intriguing options:
Philadelphia Eagles $3,800 (vs JAX), Pittsburgh Steelers $3,600 (vs NYJ), New York Giants $3,100 (vs CHI), Detroit Lions $2,800 (vs SEA)
