One step forward, two steps back. That was the theme of Week 12 over here as we nailed the Joe Mixon explosion game, but whiffed on Christian McCaffrey and Miles Sanders. Oh, Diontae Johnson played well… again? But, it looks like Keenan Allen and Elijah Moore were let downs. And don’t even get me started on the tight ends. At least Dan Arnold can’t hurt me anymore.
Whatever, we’re #OntoWeek13
QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady $7,200
- After a game that was dominated by Uncle Lenny and the ground game, Brady sees his price drop to it’s lowest point since Week 4. While AB is still out, Brady still has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski to carve through this Falcons defense.
Justin Herbert $6,700
- Despite the dud real life performance against the Broncos, Herbert still put up 24.72 DK points last week in the loss. He’s been very consistent throwing the ball and now he’s starting to flirt with some sexy rushing upside. The game against the Bengals has one of the higher projected point totals on the slate and could very well be a shootout against fellow sophomore Joe Burrow.
Others to consider: Joe Burrow $6,300 (vs Chargers), Derek Carr $6,000 (vs Washington)
RUNNING BACKS
Joe Mixon $8,100
- My Mixon pick last week worked out fantastic, and I’m going right back to the well again. He’s the bell cow in this offense and is averaging 29 carries over his last two outings. The Chargers have really struggled against the run this year, and Mixon is red hot.
Alexander Mattison $7,600
- As our good friend Duck has pointed out numerous times, Mattison has a history of stepping into RB1 duties against the Lions and smashing in those spots. He has yet another one this week, so all signs are pointing towards another explosion game against a struggling Detroit team. Mattison should see heavy volume.
Eli Mitchell $6,000
- The 2021 Waiver Wire Hero is entering bell cow status in the always dangerous Kyle Shanahan run game. Mitchell has seen 27 carries in back-to-back games and now he’s adding to his receiving game with five catches last week. The injury to Deebo Samuel also boosts Mitchell’s stock as Samuel was a huge part of the run game and offense overall. It’s also a plus matchup against the Seahawks who have the league’s worst play count differential this season.
Antonio Gibson $5,700
- Gibson is finally getting RB1 usage numbers and has begin to pay dividends off that workload. Washington lost JD McKissic to a neck injury last week which should result in more work for Gibson going forward. Increased passing game work is a huge plus, and the Raiders defense is nothing to worry about.
Jamaal Williams $5,400
- With D’Andre Swift out with his shoulder injury, Williams is in for a big bump in production and usage this week. With nearly 20 guaranteed touches incoming at home against Minnesota, Williams could be one of the more popular plays this week. His receiving work will really push him over the value edge here.
Others to Consider: Jonathan Taylor $9,200 (vs Texans), Cordarrelle Patterson $7,000 (vs Bucs), Myles Gaskin $5,800 (vs Giants), Rex Burkhead $4,800 (vs Colts), Sony Michel $4,300 (vs Jaguars)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Cooper Kupp $9,000
- Kupp averages over 10 targets per game, has benefitted from the increased target share after the loss of Robert Woods, and has an extremely plus matchup this week against the Jaguars with a top-five WR/CB individual matchup, per PFF. Enough said.
Chris Godwin $6,600
- Godwin has gone quiet over the last three weeks, but the signs are pointing up for the receiver this week in Atlanta. He has an excellent WR/CB matchup per PFF and the continued absence of Antonio Brown keeps his target share higher than normal. Operating out of the slot should benefit Godwin this week compared to Evans lining up outwide.
DeAndre Hopkins $6,200
- Likely to return for the first time since Week 8, Hopkins is coming back to the main slate and operating at a super discount compared to normal. Here’s a guy that typically operates in the mid 7k to low 8k range, but you never see this low of a salary. It’s borderline disrespectful. With Kyler back and Hopkins hopefully healthy, they should look to make up for lost time against the Bears.
Others to Consider: Keenan Allen $7,500 (vs Bengals), Jaylen Waddle $6,400 (vs Giants), Hunter Renfrow $5,800 (vs Washington), Brandon Aiyuk $5,600 (vs Seahawks), Russell Gage $5,300 (vs Bucs), Van Jefferson $5,300 (vs Jaguars), Kenny Golladay $5,000 (vs Dolphins)
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski $5,300
- In his last two games since returning from injury, Gronkowski has 13 catches for 194 yards on 17 targets. VERY good numbers out of the tight end spot and he’s also benefitting from the absence of Antonio Brown. Gronkowski hasn’t scored since Week 2, so some positive touchdown regression looks to be on tap.
Pat Freiermuth $4,200
- The rookie tight end practiced in full after being evaluated for a concussion and has been a touchdown machine over his last five games. Really benefitting from the absence of Eric Ebron, Freiermuth has taken over the TE1 role and has climbed his way towards the top of the Steelers target share. The Ravens are a tough matchup, but the touchdown upside is hard to pass on.
Others to Consider: Gerald Everett $3,800 (vs 49ers), Evan Engram $3,500 (vs Dolphins), Foster Moreau $2,700 (vs Washington), James O’Shaugnessy $2,600 (vs Rams)
D/ST
Miami Dolphins $3,300
- A Miami defense that’s heating up with three double digit games over their last four contests get a struggling Giants offense that could start Mike Glennon this week after Daniel Jones injured his neck last week. What’s not to like?
