2021 Fantasy Football Auction Tips: Undervalued Players to Draft, Overvalued Players to Fade

Here is a list of players to target and fade during your 2021 Auction Drafts.

If you haven’t checked out my comprehensive guide on how to dominate an auction draft, please click the links below. Part 1 includes an overview of my fantasy football auction draft philosophy, plus an amazing Excel tool to help you set the perfect player prices. This Excel tool generates the suggested prices below.

Part 1: How To Dominate a Fantasy Football Auction Draft – Setting Player Prices
Part 2: How To Dominate a Fantasy Football Auction Draft – Developing a Game Plan
Part 3: How To Dominate a Fantasy Football Auction Draft – Budgeting Audibles for Every Scenario
Part 4: How To Dominate a Fantasy Football Auction Draft – In-Draft Strategy & Tips

The previous series lays out a comprehensive auction strategy, but this article takes a deeper dive into specific players I am targeting and avoiding in auction drafts this year. All following data is based on a 10-team, half-PPR ESPN league. If your league is different, download the tool and input your league settings to get your own custom auction values!

UNDERVALUED 2021 AUCTION PLAYERS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY

Fair Value: $87, Current ESPN AAV: $70

Anyone can tell you that Christian McCaffrey is worth the first overall pick in 2021. However, auction drafts require managers to determine how big the gap is between McCaffrey and other options. According to my value-based drafting Excel tool calculated using FantasyPros consensus projections, he is worth $87 in 2021.

For more information on how the tool works, click here.

ESPN drafters are correctly selecting McCaffrey as the most valuable player, but he is still significantly undervalued compared to his insane projected workload and past production.

In his three active weeks in 2020, McCaffrey averaged an insane 30.0 points per game in full-PPR, easily the best mark of any running back. The 64.4 snaps per game and 95.0% snap percentage figures are averaged from 2018 and 2019 due to in-game injuries ruining the data. McCaffrey played 97% of the snaps in Week 1, his only fully healthy game of 2020.

CMC led all running backs in 2020 with an absurd 25.2 expected fantasy points per game despite leaving two of his three games early due to injury. 

Even if the Panthers scale back his workload slightly in 2021 to prevent injury, he is so far ahead of the pack that you should still feel comfortable shelling out a huge portion of your budget. McCaffrey still clearly possesses the best workload in fantasy football and is the undisputed RB1 in 2021. ESPN drafters seem to be underestimating his truly unique workhorse role, and you shouldn’t be afraid to pay what may seem like a crazy price on the surface.

JOE MIXON

Fair Value: $40, Current ESPN AAV: $34

Joe Mixon injured his foot during Week 6, so the above data is from Weeks 1-5 of 2020.

First, Edwin Porras, DPT has data to suggest that Mixon’s foot will be a non-issue in 2021. If he stayed healthy last year, Mixon likely would have put up solid fantasy numbers. He was the RB5 in expected fantasy points per game last year, which is an impressive workload.

Despite a merely average snap percentage of 67.1%, Mixon averaged 50.4 snaps per game, the fifth-most snaps per game of all running backs in The Wolf’s top-24. This is because the Bengals averaged the third-most snaps per game in the NFL before Joe Burrow’s injury, which is great for fantasy football. Even better, Mixon is likely to see a larger snap share in 2021 due to backup Giovanni Bernard leaving town. In fact, a Bengals reporter suggested that Mixon could see 80% of the snaps in 2021, which would give him insanely high fantasy value.

Even if he doesn’t reach 80%, we can reasonably project Mixon’s snap share to grow at least a little in Bernard’s absence, which would only add to his impressive workload. The Bengals offense should also improve in 2021, and all signs are pointing up for Mixon in 2021. He is an excellent value in ESPN auction drafts.

DARREN WALLER & GEORGE KITTLE

Waller Fair Value: $35, Current ESPN AAV: $30

Kittle Fair Value: $35, Current ESPN AAV: $28

As I wrote in part 2 of my previous auction series, Darren Waller and George Kittle are both screaming values this year. They are as close to must-buys as you can get in an auction draft.

Waller and Kittle have the two largest site skews at the position, meaning they are among the best values. They are clearly mispriced, and drafting one of them gives you a massive positional advantage at tight end.

Choosing which player to target can be difficult. Waller is slightly ahead of Kittle in The Wolf’s rankings, so I would probably lean slightly towards Waller if I had to choose. But in an auction, I would try to grab the cheaper one if there was a significant price discrepancy.

Waller had a slight edge in expected fantasy points 2020, but Kittle’s 15-183-1 explosion in Week 4 propelled his PPR scoring average slightly above Waller. Note that Kittle’s stats only include his first five active games of the season. He left Week 8 early for injury and played a part-time role in Weeks 16 and 17 at less than 100% health, so I excluded those games for this analysis.

No matter who you prefer, both players are excellent values in drafts right now. And just to be clear, I only suggest drafting Kittle or Waller in a single TE league. Not both.

OVERVALUED 2021 AUCTION PLAYERS

CEEDEE LAMB

Fair Value: $16, Current ESPN AAV: $27

I love CeeDee Lamb’s talent, but I’m a little worried about his role in 2021. Amari Cooper led the Cowboys in targets, and Michael Gallup led the team in snaps and air yards in 2020. I certainly expect Lamb’s numbers to improve with better quarterback play and a year of experience in the NFL, but I’m not sure he can break into the top tier if Cooper and Gallup play the entire season.

ESPN drafters are currently paying an average of $27 for Lamb and $19 for Cooper, but Cooper is projected to finish as the top Cowboys receiver according to the FantasyPros consensus projections. The tool says Cooper is worth $20 compared to Lamb’s $16 fair value. Lamb finishing above Cooper is certainly within his range of outcomes, but I would not be surprised at all if he finishes behind Cooper.

Instead of spending your money on Lamb, I recommend getting a rock-solid option like Keenan Allen for about the same price.

NICK CHUBB

Fair Value: $41, Current ESPN AAV: $48

Nick Chubb’s lack of receiving role limits his upside. He made up for his poor volume with elite talent and efficiency last year and still finished as the half-PPR RB7 on a per-game basis in 2020 after adjusting for injury. He is a great player, but it is hard to see a ceiling much higher than his 2020 results without significantly more volume. If you’re drafting a running back for $48 in an auction, you should be getting a player with considerable upside. Ideally, you want a back with a chance to finish as the overall RB1.

Instead of Chubb, look to target a guy like Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones. Jones has the same AAV as Chubb on ESPN, and the spreadsheet gives him a fair value of $44. More importantly, Jones has elite upside in 2021 if he can become the bell-cow without Jamaal Williams in Green Bay to steal touches. Austin Ekeler is another option in this range who projects to be more valuable than Chubb. Chubb is a very talented player, but his projected workload limits his upside relative to other backs in this range.

PATRICK MAHOMES

Fair Value: $25, Current ESPN AAV: $31

While he is a great player, you should avoid overpaying for Patrick Mahomes in auction drafts. He is clearly an elite talent, but ESPN drafters are paying too much for Mahomes and ignoring other excellent quarterback options later in the draft. Mahomes is the only top QB with a negative site skew. You can find better value elsewhere.

Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott all look like solid values and all have massive upside if you’re looking for a high-end QB. If not, QB streaming is a great way to save on money, for similar fantasy points. Most savvy owners “stream” QB based on matchups, rather than lock in a single player. Except for the truly elite, streaming usually generates more QB points over the course of the season than sticking with the same guy each week.

This decreases the value of top QBs because of the opportunity cost. According to FantasyPros, the combination of Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence projects to score 19.5 fantasy points per game, about the same as Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers over the season.

DOMINATE YOUR AUCTION DRAFT

I only have space to cover a few specific players in this article, so please download the auction tool to get customized auction values for every player and any league settings. And for a more comprehensive auction strategy, check out the links below!

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

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