It pains me to have Nick Chubb join Alvin Kamara on my list of players to fade in 2021 fantasy football. As a pure runner, he might be the best or most talented running back in the league.
All-time leaders in @PFF elusive rating:
2020 Nick Chubb – 130.0
2017 Alvin Kamara – 108.5
2019 Josh Jacobs – 103.6
2018 Nick Chubb – 103.3
2017 Kenyan Drake – 96.3
2012 C.J. Spiller – 94.6
2014 Marshawn Lynch – 94.3— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) August 10, 2021
Chubb is also running behind one of the league’s top offensive lines (No.1 in PFF’s rankings), which returns all 5 starters from a year ago. Don’t laugh, but behind a strong defense, the Browns are a Super Bowl contender, meaning the offense will be playing with positive game scripts for its lethal backfield.
Moreover, in only 12 games last season, Chubb was elite. He ran for 1,067 yards on 190 carries and added 12 rushing touchdowns.
WHY I’M FADING NICK CHUBB
Chubb only finished as the RB11 last year (RB9 in PPG). Why? Well, aside from the four games that he missed due to injury, he is completely uninvolved in the passing game. Chubb’s 18 targets were the fewest of any top-24 RB. His 17.3 opportunities per game were the 13th most, but only 9 percent of his average opportunities per game came through the air.
For context, that’s the second-lowest number among top-24 RBs from last season, with only King Derrick Henry averaging a lower percentage (8 percent). In PPR leagues, a target is worth 2.64x the value of a carry. This just goes to show you how great Chubb was last year and how great he will have to be to live up to his ninth overall ADP as a rushing workhorse contending with true three-down bell-cows.
To make matters even worse for Chubb’s fantasy outlook is former three-down bell-cow, Kareem Hunt. The rushing leader from 2017 is still in the prime of his career and will act as a metaphorical thorn in the side of Chubb.
Since Hunt joined the Browns in 2019, Chubb has only averaged 15.6 PPR points per game. On a PPG basis, this would have put him at the RB15 in 2020 and the RB13 in 2019. Chubb’s 29 targets in 20 games is an alarmingly low number that doesn’t look likely to change. Both Chubb and Hunt finished inside the top 12 last season at RB. That’s only happened one other time in the last 30 years (2017 Saints with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram).
It’s in the Brown’s best interest to limit Chubb to a certain extent, given that they have an elite two-headed monster. They have no reason to give Chubb over 20 carries per game when they can get similar production from Hunt when he’s on the field.
Despite Chubb’s efficiency, his upside is capped at about 50 percent of the team’s snaps if Hunt stays healthy. If he isn’t going to receive over 20 rushing attempts per game and isn’t targeted in the passing game, his RB7 and 9th overall ADP is too rich for me. I don’t know about y’all but I’m not in the market to draft a first-round RB whose snaps are capped at 50 percent of the team’s snaps.
Love the player, not a huge fan of his price.
PLAYERS I PREFER
I prefer the likes of Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill over Chubb.
If you’re picking in a spot where Chubb is in consideration for your team, there are a few other routes I’d go. Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler are players that I touched on in my Kamara article. If you are locked in on an RB in the first round, I’d prefer both of them over Chubb. But if you’re drafting in the back half of the first round, you’ll still have a solid shot at ending up with a stud RB early in round two. You should know your league mates and their tendencies, so if you expect Jones, Ekeler, even Joe Mixon, and/or Antonio Gibson available for you in the second round, scoop an elite pass-catching cornerstone like Travis Kelce, Davante Adams, or Tyreek Hill before Chubb.
If you’ve been keeping up with fantasy football strategy, you’ve likely heard about the positional advantage of selecting an elite tight end in the first or second round. To gain that advantage, draft Kelce in the first round. He’s essentially a WR1 in the TE spot and should give you a weekly edge over your opponent.
Next, we have Adams and the numbers speak for themselves. Adams is arguably the best WR in the NFL and has Aaron freakin’ Rodgers throwing him passes for “the last dance.” Adams was the most targeted WR in the NFL on a per-game basis (10.6) and he also led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 18. The touchdown numbers do not come as a surprise since he led the league in red-zone targets last season with 32. He has both the ceiling and the floor to justify taking him in the first round and he’s the clear WR1 in PPR leagues.
If Adams is no longer available, my WR2 is Tyreek Hill. Hill has been a top-eight WR in three of the last four seasons, with two seasons finishing as the WR2. Sammy Watkins left and the team is looking at Mecole Hardman to replace him in the offense. Hill should see even more targets in 2021 than last year, where he saw 135 targets. Hill’s game-breaking speed, big-play ability, and connection with Patrick Mahomes gives your team a chance to win every single week.
Are you fading Chubb in 2021 fantasy drafts?
