Welcome to the Daily Draft Day Fantasy Football Dilemma! Each weekday, The Wolf poses four players drafted in the same ADP range for our experts to choose from. Below, we share the results and reasoning.
Up first:
WHICH RB SHOULD YOU DRAFT IN THE LATE 1ST ROUND?
AARON JONES VS. NICK CHUBB VS. AUSTIN EKELER VS. JONATHAN TAYLOR
RSJ’S FAVORITES:
Aaron Jones: The RB2 & RB5 the past two seasons, Jones should never fall to the late first anyways… but here we are. Despite those lofty finishes, Jones’ ceiling is actually even higher in 2021 with Jamaal Williams and his 154 opps (119 carries, 35 targets) departed. Sure, AJ Dillon and those thighs will shoulder some of the rushing burden, but Williams ran 194 mostly useless routes, a majority of which Jones should inherit. He’s so deadly in space and with the ball in his hands (1.43 YPRR, 9th) that even a slight bump in targets could astronomically improve his already-juicy totals. -The Wolf.
Aaron Jones: Of all the names on the list he should receive the most work and be in the best offense. Proven track record, loss of Jamaal Williams, Aaron Rodgers a man on a mission with something to prove. -Kendall Brown
Jonathan Taylor: Especially after Frank Reich’s comments on just how good Taylor has looked. He thrived after he started getting a feel for his blockers last year and I expect that dominance carries over into this year. I’m more confident in his volume and splitting receiving work more with Hines. Not concerned with Mack. Guy’s a stud and should be treated as such.-The Duck
Aaron Jones: Jones was a stud in 2020, seeing plenty of volume in the running and passing game while on the field. He finished as the half-PPR RB6 in points per game. His problem was only playing 61.5% of the snaps. While Jones finished third in expected fantasy points per game on this list, I expect his workload to increase more than any of the other three due to absorbing a significant amount of Jamaal Williams’ vacated snaps.If he takes a significant part of Williams’ role, I believe the overall RB1 is within his range of outcomes. I don’t think any of the other guys can be the overall RB1 barring injury to Kareem Hunt or Nyheim Hines. Note that Jonathan Taylor’s numbers in the graphic below are only the final seven games of 2020, including playoffs, when he took over the starting role. -Jackson Barrett
Also, all data in the chart is based on full-PPR scoring:
RSJ IS FADING:
Jonathan Taylor: It pains me to put Taylor, and has nothing to do with his own ability — rather, it’s his HC. Frank Reich has always been an RBBC enthusiast, to the point it took a Jordan Freakin’ Wilkins injury for Taylor to get the bell-cow treatment he fully deserves. Reich already said Taylor earned the starting role and the highest share of the ground pie (woo!), but in the same breath mentioned a “hot hand” approach and desire to keep all the backs involved for their varied skillsets. Wentz is expected back to begin the season, but we just got a reminder of his fragility — and given Taylor’s susceptibility to game flow, I think he has the lowest weekly and seasonal floor despite the massive spike potential any given week. – The Wolf
Jonathan Taylor: This was close for me between Taylor and Nick Chubb but I went with Taylor because of the uncertainty of the QB position at the moment and the idea that Reich likes to go with an RBBC. Nelson hurt, Wentz hurt, Eason as the starter (at least for a couple of weeks) doesn’t get me excited. – Kendall Brown
Aaron Jones: Not as sold on Jones’ receiving projections as the rest (additions of Randall Cobb and Amari Rogers could dominate the middle of the field) I think TD-regression, as a whole, bites this team and Jones could get pinched. Dillon wasn’t brought in to not be used in high-value (GL carries) situations. Think Jones very likely finishes as the worst of the four. – The Duck
Nick Chubb: Chubb’s lack of receiving role limits his upside. He made up for his poor volume with elite talent and efficiency last year and still finished as the half-PPR RB7 on a per-game basis in 2020 after adjusting for injury. He is a great player, but it is hard to see a ceiling much higher than his 2020 results without significantly more volume. Recent reports about Ekeler’s workload are mildly concerning, but I still expect Chubb to finish last in total snaps, snap percentage, and expected fantasy points per game among this group like he did in 2020. – Jackson Barrett
Jonathan Taylor: JTaylor and it’s not even close. I don’t trust the Colts coaching staff not to siphon touches away from JT. When picking in the top few rounds, you need a locked-in guy who is consistent week by week. I don’t trust Taylor to give you that. – Tailback Tino
Jonathan Taylor: It’s boring to echo the above statements, but I just can’t trust Frank Reich to ride a singular workhorse for an entire season. Taylor is built to be a workhorse, but he won’t be treated like one. – CJay
RSJ’s Composite Top Choice = Aaron Jones
RSJ’s Composite Worst Choice = Jonathan Taylor
