2021 Fantasy Football: The Year to Draft an Elite Tight End in the 1st or 2nd Round

2021 is the year to spend early draft capital on a tight end.

With a nickname like Tailback Tino, you could probably guess what position I typically hammer early in the draft. Winning fantasy championships under the two bell-cow draft model has proved successful since I fell in love with this wonderful game at eight years old.  My friends on the elementary school bus might not have cared that I was able to stack LaDainian Tomlinson and Maurice Jones-Drew in the first two rounds, but those two running backs were the foundation of my first ever championship team.

This year, I have a slightly different strategy that I want to layout for the Wolfpack to consider…

In 2021, I’m taking a tight end in the first two rounds.

It feels unnatural to say… but the numbers support locking in one of those generational talents.

THE BIG 3

  1. Travis Kelce: The no-brainer TE1. A Hall of Famer if he hung up the cleats today, Kelce has been a top-two TE since 2016. Last season as the TE 1, Kelce finished an almost unbelievable 109.6 fantasy points higher than TE3, Robert Tonyan, in one less game! He is as close to a lock to be an elite player at the position as you will find in fantasy football and puts up weekly elite wide receiver fantasy numbers.
    Current ADP: Round 1, Pick 11
  2. Darren Waller: An elite athlete at 6’6 and 256lbs, Waller was the only player remotely close to competing for the overall TE1 spot. He acted as the buffer between King Kelce and the rest of the league’s tight ends, scoring 35 points less than Kelce, but 74.5 points more than anyone else at the position. Waller is Derek Carr’s alpha target hog and should eat again in 2021.
    Current ADP: Round 2, Pick 12
  3. George Kittle: Coming off an injury-shortened season, Kittle is looking to reclaim his spot as an elite fantasy tight end, where he belongs. Through eight games, Kittle was on pace for his third straight 1,000-yard and 85-plus reception season. He is the Chris Bosh of this Big 3. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how he comes back from injury and how the offense looks under rookie QB, Trey Lance.
    Current ADP: Round 3, Pick 2

THE NUMBERS

1. Last season, nobody outside of Darren Waller finished within 109 points of Travis Kelce. Waller was 35.2 points behind Kelce in half-ppr scoring. Here is the half PPR finish from last season:

  1. Travis Kelce: 260.3
  2. Darren Waller: 225.1
  3. George Kittle: 202.2 (Full season pace)
  4. Robert Tonyan: 150.6

2. George Kittle was on pace for 202.2 fantasy points in 2020, which would have solidified him as the TE3. This would have left him finishing over 50 points ahead of the next best tight end (Tonyan).

3. The drop-off at tight end is more abrupt than at any other position. To get a 110 point drop off as you get from the TE1 to the TE3, you would need to go this far into the final fantasy finishes for each position:

  • QB 12 (Matt Ryan)
  • RB 7 (James Robinson)
  • WR 26 (Diontae Johnson)

4. Not only is the drop-off more abrupt at tight end, but it is also significantly more predictable!

  • Travis Kelce has been the TE1 in four of the last five years, missing by only .8 points in 2017. If you draft Kelce, you have the locked-in TE1 — unless he or Pat Mahomes get injured.
  • Darren Waller was the TE3 during his 2019 breakout campaign and followed it up with an even stronger 2020 as the TE2.
  • George Kittle was on pace to be the TE3 last season but was previously the TE3 in 2018 and the TE2 in 2019. He has spent his whole career in the Big 3 of the tight end position.

All three of these options have produced top-tier fantasy seasons for multiple years in the past. They are not hopeful breakouts like some top-round picks at other positions.  Fantasy players have seen them produce in the past and know that their coaches and quarterbacks are more than willing to force-feed them the ball when needed.

5. Last season, there was only a 28 point drop-off from the TE4 to the TE15. If you don’t have a reliable player from the “Big 3”, you should not waste a mid-round pick on an upside TE. Let other members of your league spend valuable picks on the middle-tier guys who likely won’t pan out.

6. It sounds obvious, but the more you are on the field the more you are going to score. Kelce, Waller, and Kittle were all in the top-six of snap percentage last year, all playing more than 83 percent of snaps for their respective team. If you take a look at the receiving yards by down for the position, you’ll see how important the number of snaps you see is to production.

While the “Big 3” sat at 91 percent (Waller), 86 percent (Kelce), and 83 percent (Kittle), here are where some of the mid-round names sat last season:

Dallas Goedert: 77 percent

TJ Hockenson: 74 percent

Mark Andrews: 65 percent

Robert Tonyan: 61 percent

Mike Gesicki: 58 percent

It is exceedingly difficult for a tight end primarily used in the red zone and on 3rd down to be a top-tier tight end. In order to find predictable and reliable options at tight end, you are likely going to need options that have a snap share of over 75 percent.

2021 FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY

Now that we have dove into the rationale behind taking these studs, let’s take a look at what your lineup could look like by going this route. There are two different scenarios that could really play out, and they are completely dependent on what draft pick you have.

SCENARIO 1 (TOP-5 PICK):

Round 1: Draft your stud RB. Don’t get cute. Take one of the top tier RBs and wait until round two to grab Waller or Kittle.

Round 2: Time to call your shot. I prefer Waller, but locking in either Waller or Kittle in the back half of round two leaves you in a great spot.

Round 3: Complete your RB stable. A pick like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, or Joe Mixon is a home run here.

Rounds 4-7: Time to start loading up on wide receivers. Your stud running backs and positional advantage at RB gives you the advantage of avoiding mediocre running backs and tight ends in this range. Take advantage of the wide receiver depth and load up at that position.

Mock Lineup:

QB: Any late mobile QB (Hurts, Tua, Lance, etc.)

RB: Alvin Kamara

RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

WR: Tyler Lockett

WR: Brandon Aiyuk

TE: Darren Waller

FLEX: Chase Claypool

FLEX: Robby Anderson

SCENARIO 2 (BOTTOM-7 PICK):

Round 1: Travis Kelce. No brainer.

Rounds 2-3: Grab your two running back horses.

Rounds 4-7: Time to start loading up on wide receivers. Your stud running backs and positional advantage at running back gives you the advantage of avoiding mediocre RBs and tight ends in this range. Take advantage of wide receiver depth and load up at that spot.

Mock Lineup:

QB: Any late mobile QB (Hurts, Tua, Lance, etc)

RB: Joe Mixon

RB: Chris Carson

WR: Robert Woods

WR: Tyler Lockett

TE: Travis Kelce

FLEX: Chase Claypool

FLEX: Robby Anderson

Note: If someone falls right into your lap at RB that you cannot pass up, you can pivot into fully punting the position and taking Tyler Higbee late in the draft.  Either go Big 3… or Higbee. Nothing in between, not even Kyle Pitts at his current ADP, who we envision to be in the “Elite” tier next season.

Author

  • Hockey player turned fantasy football addict. Hoarder of running backs. Jets fan whose childhood was ruined by Tom Brady.

Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
LinkedIn

Related Posts