The Holidays are upon us, but this week is not so giving when it comes to selections for Sunday’s Main Slate. With games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday (3 games!), and Monday, that leaves 10 contests to select from in Week 16.
Most of you are likely out of your respective season-long leagues (I’m playing the odds, not undermining The Wolf’s fabulous advice), so why not throw some cash into DFS tourneys. We’ve been running hot the last few weeks and are looking to finish the year guns blazing, so let’s bring it back in Week 16 and ride the lightning.
Make sure to tune into The Fantasy Tailgate every Sunday at 11 AM EST for last-minute advice as a lot happens between writing this now and Sunday morning.
Anyways, onto the DraftKings NFL Week 16 Picks, Sleepers.
Let’s ride.
QUARTERBACKS
- Justin Herbert ($7,400)
- After a fantastic showing against the Raiders on Thursday Night, Herbert once again showed he’s the real deal in this league. This week he gets the Broncos defense that is dealing with multiple injuries and suspensions in the secondary. They were just picked apart by Josh Allen, and Herbert is next in line for this turn with this defense.
- Jalen Hurts ($7,000)
- I apologize for not editing out Taysom Hill for Jalen Hurts after Brees was ruled to be active this past Sunday. Both mobile guys were destined to be solid plays, and Hurts more than showed he’s got what it takes to make it in the NFL. With his rushing upside, Hurts’ ceiling is extremely high given how much the Eagles have him run. Now he gets the Cowboys defense that has been very poor against the run. It’s also not just the rushing ability. Hurts has shown he can throw going for over 300 yards and 3 scores through the air last week.
- Baker Mayfield ($6,100)
- Over his last three games, Baker is averaging 29.49 DK points per game. He’s been one of the hottest QBs in the league recently and is still fighting for a chance at the division title. Facing the Jets, Baker shouldn’t be slowing down this week looking at a plus matchup.
- Drew Lock ($5,000)
- There are the up and downs with Lock who has been inconsistent all year. But when he hits those highs, he can put up serious numbers. The Broncos/Chargers game is one of the few games projected for higher totals compared to this relatively low scoring slate. Lock certainly has the weapons at his disposal, and playing in a controlled environment will definitely help his upside against a struggling Chargers team.
RUNNING BACKS
- David Montgomery ($7,700)
- Montgomery is running like a man possessed and finally seems to be delivering on his overdue breakout. He’s scored over 27 DK points in four straight games now, and this week gets the terrible Jags defense. His ability to convert around the goal line has been a huge help, and with Jacksonville in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 pick, I don’t see them putting up much fight.
- Miles Sanders ($7,000)
- Despite the 17 carries last week, Sanders couldn’t muster up much yardage resulting in a meek 10 DK points. However, Sanders finds a terrific bounce-back spot against the Cowboys terrible rush defense, and this new Eagles offense with Jalen Hurts opens up so many more running opportunities for Sanders and the ground game.
- David Johnson ($6,100)
- DJ didn’t get many carries last week but he got his money’s worth through the air with 11 catches for 106 yards. With Duke Johnson and Prosise out, David Johnson was the bell cow back for Houston and took full advantage of his extra reps. Being a check down specialist isn’t a terrible thing in PPR settings, and with another big workload game plus hopefully more touches in the run game, Johnson could have another solid outing against the Bengals.
- Le’Veon Bell ($5,800)
- Last week the Chiefs lost Clyde Edwards-Helaire for the remainder of the regular season. Next man up? Le’Veon Bell. The vet slides into more snaps and usage following the injury and couldn’t find a better matchup than the Falcons defense. After 15 carries last week, I’d imagine those numbers should go up a bit while hopefully seeing more than just one catch in the passing game. Atlanta has been generous to opposing RBs all year.
- Melvin Gordon ($5,600)
- Should Philip Lindsay miss this week’s game, Gordon finds himself in a full workhorse role at a RB price that’s not reflecting that. Despite the ass-kicking from the Bills, Gordon still managed 24 DK points last week punching in two scores. While he’s no longer the same talent as Josh Jacobs is, the latter had himself a very nice day against the Chargers last Thursday.
- Gio Bernard ($4,800)
- Joe Mixon remains on IR and Bernard got true RB1 usage against the Steelers Monday night. He racked up 83 yards and a score on 25 carries and even caught a touchdown pass. Now with the Texans up next, that ‘defense,’ if you can call it that, has struggled all year slowing anyone down.
- Darrell Henderson ($4,500)
- Cam Akers has been ruled out with an ankle injury, meaning it’s the Henderson and Malcolm Brown show. Brown has basically been irrelevant since about Week 2, so I’d expect Henderson to land the RB1 work this week against the Seahawks.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- Calvin Ridley ($8,500)
- Instead of Tyreek in a spectacular matchup, I’ll pivot over to Ridley who has been THRIVING in life without Julio Jones. Ridley has been a machine when given the proper amount of targets, and this week he’s in the highest projected game on the slate.
- Keenan Allen ($7,500)
- As we mentioned with Herbert above, the Broncos secondary is dealing with a lot. Allen was questionable to play on a quick turnaround Thursday night and his stat line stunk because of it. Now with extra rest, I love Allen to bounce back in a huge way in a plus matchup.
- Diontae Johnson ($6,300)
- While the Steelers offense has looked like absolute crap, the target numbers are still crazy high for Johnson. He’s gotten double-digit targets in nearly every game he’s been healthy as Ben continues to look his way every week. Sure, the matchup is tough, which might scare some away, but his target share is too high for me to pass on — especially with the Steelers AFC North grasp slipping away.
- CeeDee Lamb ($5,300)
- The Cowboys are making a late push for the division, and if the Eagles can be exploited it’s through their secondary. Amari Cooper has generally disappeared when facing a tougher cornerback matchup, so I’d love to target Lamb for cheaper and hopefully a higher target share.
- Russell Gage ($5,100)
- Over 15 points in the three games without Julio Jones, Gage has played nicely as the Falcons WR2 during that stretch. The Chiefs represent a tougher task, but with plenty of points in the projected total, we’d expect Atlanta to put up their own fight as Gage has averaged roughly 8 targets a game during this run.
- Darnell Mooney ($4,000)
- Touchdowns in back to back games now for Mooney, he’s been the deep specialist for the Bears offense. With the Jags up next, his stock goes up in a plus matchup. He’s still a risky low floor pick, but the ceiling he possesses at this price offers value if you think the Bears can get it done.
TIGHT ENDS
- Travis Kelce ($8,500)
- Kelce is just operating at a completely different level than any tight end out there right now. He’s as valuable as a high-end WR in the league’s best offense. The Falcons aren’t slowing him down, and he’s in a dog fight to lead the league in receiving yardage. He’s as reliable as they come in the league.
- Noah Fant ($4,800)
- Fant had his best game last week with an 8-68-1 showing on 11 targets, which was good for 20.8 DK points. With Lock listed above, he’d be a solid stacking option there or even just using Fant on his own as he’s playing a much bigger role in Denver’s offense now.
- Austin Hooper ($3,500)
- Hooper returned from a one-game absence with 5-41-1 on 6 targets against the Giants. With the Jets up next, Hooper has a great matchup currently working his way up the Browns target share list behind only Landry and Higgins.
DST
- Baltimore Ravens ($4,000)
- The Ravens are fighting for a playoff spot, and welcome the Giants to town this week who have really struggled to do anything offensively whatsoever this year.
- Washington Football Team ($3,000)
- Looks like no Christian McCaffrey again for Carolina this week, meaning I’m very confident in firing up the Washington defense against Bridgewater. Washington has been elite defending the pass, and Mike Davis isn’t scaring me.
- Seattle Seahawks ($2,600)
- This is a HUGE game for Seattle to win and clinch the division. The Rams are coming in fresh off a loss to the Jets, and Jared Goff has been known to absolutely turtle under pressure. No Cam Akers for the Rams either, I can see Seattle stepping up big time at home to lock down a division title.
