Week 11 was a solid week. The wide reveivers showed up big time as Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, and Diontae Johnson all went nuts. The Jakobi Meyers play made all the sense in the world, until the universe switched him with Damiere Byrd on an extremely tilting performance. It was nice to finally hit on Mark Andrews’ breakout, but Lamar Jackson left a lot to be desired from his subpar performance. We’re missing a handful of games on this main slate thanks to the upcoming holiday, so it’s time to make do with what’s left.
Make sure to tune into The Fantasy Tailgate every Sunday at 11 AM EST for last-minute advice as a lot happens between writing this now and Sunday morning.
Anyways, onto the DraftKings NFL Week 12 Picks, Sleepers.
Let’s ride.
QUARTERBACKS
- Josh Allen ($7,600)
- One of the more bi-polar QBs in the game this year, Allen has thrived when playing against significantly weaker competition. The Chargers present a great case of a team that can keep up with Herbert but their defense is so poor that Allen should have his way. His rushing upside and goal line usage raises his ceiling considerably in what could be a huge day for the Bills QB.
- Tom Brady ($6,600)
- This game looks like it should be an absolute shootout. Brady is coming off a pretty bad Monday night showing and will look for redemption against a Chiefs defense he has had a lot of success against in the past. The Bucs all but eliminated their running game with 48 passes last week and Brady will be slinging again to an abundance of weapons in one of the league’s highest projected game totals of the week.
- Daniel Jones ($5,500)
- A cheaper QB play, Jones is definitely a risky play but one with a great matchup and solid upside thanks to his rushing ability and increased usage. Jones has a handful of receivers to work with and he’s been utilized more with QB runs to help boost his numbers. The big risk on Jones is often his lack of touchdown passes with just 8 in 10 games. As long as he hits two, then he should cover his value at just mid 5k.
RUNNING BACKS
- Dalvin Cook ($9,500)
- Dalvin Cook’s hit what I believe to be is a career high in DK salary, pretty much in CMC territory here which is a rare feat. Cook already has elite usage in Minnesota’s offense, but now Adam Thielen is sidelined after his positive COVID test meaning Cook is likely to take on increased work in the passing game. Just when you thought Cook’s workload couldn’t get any sexier, and he’s got a lowly Panthers defense to pray on for the proverbial cherry on top.
- James Robinson ($6,300)
- The lone bright spot of Jacksonville’s season thus far, James Robinson has been getting elite RB1 usage for the Jags with nearly 20 carries a game as of late. The matchup this week with Cleveland is a little less than ideal, but Robinson is still at home, the clear goal line option, and is a solid bet for 15+ carries, 70+ yards and some receiving work. I’m chasing the touches with this pick instead of choosing between which of Chubb/Hunt will be the guy who gets it done.
- Austin Ekeler / Kalen Ballage ($6,100/$5,800)
- One of these Chargers backs needs to be rostered against the Bills this week. Ekeler was activated from IR but still hasn’t been ruled in either way if he’ll suit up Sunday. If he’s out, Ballage is a smash play. Over 15 carries in all three starts, and he’s being used in the passing game even more now with 5 and 7 catches over the last two. He’s practically been their bell-cow dominating snaps and touches. BUT, if Ekeler plays, can you imagine that freak of nature paired with Herbert in a shootout with the Bills?! I just see a limitless ceiling in his return.
- Jonathan Taylor ($5,900) Update: Taylor is OUT due to COVID-19
- The Colts seemed poised and ready to let Nyheim Hines be their guy and handle the lead role against Green Bay? How did it go? Jonathan Taylor played 55% of snaps and carried the ball 22 times while catching 4 passes. They got back to basics and let their best runner and workhorse run rampant for 90 yards on the day. It seems the Colts may have finally figured out that having Taylor in the backfield is actually what’s best for this team. A good game script here as a home favorite against the Titans works in Taylor’s favor.
- James White ($4,500)
- The injury to Rex Burkhead has given life to James White’s fantasy stock. Damien Harris controls the backfield when the team is run heavy and playing with a lead. But with Arizona coming in boasting a high powered offense, one could imagine New England having to play from behind and use White in the dump off game. Harris rode the bench once New England was trailing and White dominated the backfield snaps when Burkhead went down with his knee injury.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- Tyreek Hill ($7,800)
- With all the chatter around Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins being the WR1, Tyreek Hill is trying to enter the conversation with his recent play. He’s been a target hog for Mahomes, and with the projected total of this game I’m expecting a lot of points. He’s even a goal line threat with those jet sweeps they love running, but Hill should feast in a huge game.
- Justin Jefferson ($6,300)
- He’s been fantastic in his rookie year, and now Jefferson will be thrust into the WR1 role with Thielen sidelined. The Panthers are a beatable secondary and with an increased target share Jefferson is looking at a higher ceiling than usual.
- DJ Moore ($6,200)
- Perhaps he’s just a late bloomer, but DJ Moore is finally playing like we all expected this year simply because they’re getting him the ball. How bizarre a concept. With his target numbers going up, and the porous Vikings defense up next, it adds up to another solid outing by Moore.
- Antonio Brown ($5,700)
- For all the options Tampa Bay has at their disposal, Brady seems to love Antonio Brown a little more than the rest. Brown led all Bucs in targets, catches, and yards last week. However, he did not find the end zone like Evans and Godwin. They are all in the same price range, but I’ll take Brown for his high target number and Brady’s weird infatuation with him.
- Sterling Shepard ($5,100)
- When healthy and on the field, Sterling Shepard has been a target hog for the Giants with 6 targets in every contest. It’s actually been 18 straight games when healthy that he’s seen 6+ targets, shoutout to Mike Clay. While Slayton dominates in air yards, I’ll lean Shepard for the volume and trust the matchup, as he possesses one of PFF’s better WR/CB matchups against the Bengals.
TIGHT ENDS
- Travis Kelce ($7,000)
- Travis Kelce has seen double-digit targets and 100+ receiving yards in three straight. He’s been on fire, and we’ve got another shootout on deck with Tampa Bay on the schedule. Kelce should be heavily relied upon again and a big productive day seems like the norm now.
- Jonnu Smith ($4,100)
- A true red zone weapon, Jonnu Smith has been reliable for Tannehill down at the goal line. He’s seen 6 targets in back to back games now after going radio silent for a small stretch of the season. The Colts should be a stiff test, but Smith’s usage puts him in consideration this week.
- Jordan Reed ($3,600)
- I hate that I’m doing this but Reed looks like nice value this week for San Francisco. Aiyuk is still on the COVID list, and the 49ers are desperately searching for production from their pass catchers. While Deebo Samuel is slated to return, the ball still needs to be spread around. Excluding a dud in Green Bay, Reed has 6,6, and 8 targets in three of his last four.
DST
- Los Angeles Rams ($3,700)
- The Rams have been very solid on the defensive end, getting pressure on the QB from Aaron Donald, while locking down the secondary with Jalen Ramsey. Nick Mullens coming to LA doesn’t scare me the slightest as we’re looking at incoming sacks and turnovers playing from behind.
- Indianapolis Colts ($3,000)
- I don’t love the matchup, but the Colts have been one of the best defenses this year and are averaging 10 DK PPG still. They shut down the Titans two weeks ago in Tennessee, and have been generating points with their sacks and forced fumbles.
- Denver Broncos ($2,200)
- They worked out well as last week’s punt defense but I’m going right back to the well with Denver. At home, they tend to play better and can generate a pass rush. Taysom Hill looked good in his start, but I’m not sold on him leading a high scoring attack when they focus on running the ball over and over again.
