2020 Daily Fantasy Football: DraftKings NFL Week 9 Stacks & Value Picks

Welcome back to Week 9 of our season-long DFS battle. 

Week 8 Recap: DALVIN FREAKING COOK BABY! If you read last week’s article, then I hope you took Kendall’s advice about Dalvin Cook because he absolutely smashed against the Packers. Unfortunately, none of our stacks of the week were boom plays but hopefully, the Cook play was enough to help you cash. 

Without further ado, here are our DraftKings NFL Week 9 Stacks & Value Picks

Stacks of the Week

KB: Last week, Dalvin Cook was the centerpiece of all of my lineups. His DK price was severely underpriced and Cook proved that in Week 8. He had his way with the Packers defense and they just could not stop him. Dalvin’s ownership will be back up again this week as possibly the highest owned RB but this is the type of chalk that we’re targeting. Dalvin is taking on the league’s 2nd worst defense against RBs and could go for another 30+ point game.

But I don’t think I really need to sell anyone on Dalvin Cook. 

Where the selling comes in, is with this Vikings Defense. As a Vikings fan it was very easy for me to talk myself into this play, but let’s see if I can talk any of you into it as well. The Lions are like down their starting QB, Matthew Stafford, who was placed on the COVID IR list and will be without star WR Kenny Golladay, who hurt his hip last week. I think the Lions will have a very difficult time moving the ball without those two in the lineup and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Under hit in this game. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has made it clear that the way he wants to win games is by dominating in the run game and being able to play good defense. Although the Vikings defense has been far from good this season, Zimmer is a great defensive-minded coach who will have Chase Daniel very confused out there. 

At a collective 26% projected ownership, Dalvin and the Vikings could be a great play if you’re looking to save money and squeeze in an extra stud into your lineups. 

Projected Ownership

Dalvin Cook ($8,200): 24.3%

Vikings DST ($2,400): 1.7%

JT: Derek Carr ($5,700) and Darren Waller ($5,800)

It’s no secret that the Jacksonville Jaguars passing defense is a shell of its former elite self.  In fact, the Jaguars have given up the 5th most passing yards per game thus far this season with an average of 285 per game. One of the areas they really lack is their coverage of the tight end position, currently 2nd worst against the tight end.  What’s even worse about this statistic is that they haven’t even played any of the tight end “studs” at the position, avoiding Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, and Waller in each of these first 7 games.  

That changes this week.  They have the athletic freak in Darren Waller lining up on the offensive side of the ball.  While some people are betting on the deep ball connecting to Henry Ruggs this week, I’m much more comfortable taking the more proven talent in Waller to eat throughout the middle of the field. I see this as a high volume game for Waller, and one where the Raiders offense should have no issue scoring against this porous Jacksonville defense.  Waller has shown his massive upside lacked by most at the tight end position, and I think he is absolutely worth paying up for this week in a smash spot. 

Projected Ownership

Derek Carr ($5,700): 4.3%

Darren Waller ($5,800): 15.7%

Triple Stack of the Week

KB: For my triple stack of the week I’m targeting Drew Lock, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant. As we know, the Falcons defense has been miserable this season and they have not shown many signs of improvement. On average, the Falcons give up 28.8 DK points per game to QB (2nd most), 45.5 DK points per game to WR (5th most), and 19.1 DK points per game to TE (the most). So I think it’s safe to say that the juicy matchup is there for the Broncos.

Where the difficulty lies is with trusting Drew Lock and these Broncos. Last week, Lock showed promise throwing for 250 YDS, 3 TDs, and 1 INT in a pretty friendly matchup against the Chargers. He was able to mount a game-winning drive as time expired, posting 20 fantasy points along the way. Jeudy and Fant make up 50% of the team’s target share from last week receiving 10 and 9 targets respectively. Against this putrid Falcons defense, Lock is in line to have a ceiling game hopefully connecting with Jeudy and Fant for a couple of touchdowns. This is about as cheap of a stack as you’ll find, in a matchup against the Falcons who have done nothing but surrender points to every team they play.

What we love about the Falcons is that despite having such a bad defense their offense is quite good. You can run it back with the likes of Julio Jones (who might see 20 targets with Calvin Ridley sidelined with a foot injury) or even Todd Gurley who hasn’t been the most efficient player but finds ways to get it done. In summation, this is a great game to target with options all over the field. 

Projected Ownership

Drew Lock ($5,200): 3.6%

Jerry Jeudy ($4,700): 6.2%

Noah Fant ($4,600): 6.6%

Julio Jones ($7,200): 20.6%

Todd Gurley II ($6,200): 6.4%

JT: I typically love to play a triple stack as the foundation of my lineup, but truthfully none jump off the page at me this week.  I have a lot of stacks I like, but none that I am over-the-hill to play.

If I were to pick one, though, it would be the Baltimore Ravens trio of Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins, and Mark Andrews.  Kendall is in agreement with me on this one (Spoiler: It’s his value of the week).  

Instead of harping on it, I’ll just direct you to his analysis of the stack below.

Projected Ownership

Lamar Jackson ($6,900): 5.7%

JK Dobbins ($4,900): 4.0%

Mark Andrews ($4,800): 4.8%

Values of the Week

KB’s Value of the Week: Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins & Mark Andrews Stack

If you’ve been keeping up with our DFS articles then you know when we get to this section is when I try to exploit the projected ownership numbers regardless of DK price. Not to toot my own horn or anything, but these value picks of the week have been on fire. 

Week 6: Ronald Jones ($6,00): 3.6% — 23 carries, 113 yards, 2 touchdowns

Week 7: Diontae Johnson ($4,900): 4.7% — 9 receptions, 80 yards, 2 touchdowns

Week 8: Dalvin Cook ($7,500): 7% — 32 touches, 226 yards from scrimmage, 4 total touchdowns

Let’s keep the hot streak going this week with Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins, and Mark Andrews.

Look I get it. The Ravens offensive weapons have let many people down this year (including myself) but their offense is still humming. They faced the league’s toughest run defense last week and DOMINATED them with over 200 yards rushing. That’s not even why I like this stack so much. I HATE this matchup for the Colts who rely heavily on being able to run the ball. Their starting RB, Jonathan Taylor, is banged up with an ankle injury which means they could be relying more heavily on Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines to carry the load in the backfield. 

What does this mean for my DK lineup? Well I think it means that the Colts won’t be able to move the ball which should keep the Ravens in favorable field position. Even with the Colts defense teetering on elite status, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews can each break a slate on their own but together they could easily put you in the money. JK Dobbins burst on to the scene last week and this is now his backfield with a little Gus Edwards mixed in. 

This is definitely more of a feeling play than it is a matchup play, but the Ravens are just too good to be this low owned. This is a high risk, high reward play this week but isn’t that we’re going for? Take your shot on a slate breaking performance from Jackson and Andrews and throw in Dobbins if you’re feeling lucky. 

Projected Ownership

Lamar Jackson ($6,900): 5.7%

JK Dobbins ($4,900): 4.0%

Mark Andrews ($4,800): 4.8%

Tino’s Value of the Week: Sterling Shepard ($4,800)

Sterling Shepard is my prediction to be the 2020 DeVante Parker.  

Dropped by most owners after going down early in the season with a nagging turf toe injury, Sterling Shepard has stormed back onto the fantasy scene these past two weeks with 18 targets.  He turned these into 14 receptions for 133 yards and a TD.  While these numbers don’t blow you away, I expect him to take a step forward down the stretch and be a steady trustworthy option for season-long players.  

Shepard has played over 70% of snaps in each of the games he has played since returning.  With no Saquon and a poor defense, Danny Dimes will have no choice but to sling it around to stay competitive in these coming games.  Of the receiving options available, I expect Shepard to be the main beneficiary.

To dig into my Devante Parker comparison, these players share these qualities: 

• 27 years old
• No. 1 option on a bad offense whose trigger happy QB loves to throw
• High draft pedigree
• Has flashed talent and potential, but hasn’t lived up to hopes based on injuries and coaching woes

Now maybe this is a case of me chasing the “next breakout player”, but I truly do see the case for a late-season Shepard breakout.  He is extremely underpriced for a receiver demanding 8-10 targets a game, and I think he is a no brainer plug and play this week.  If you play season-long fantasy, find a way to make a trade for him before his value spikes too high.

Projected Ownership

Sterling Shepard ($4,800): 3.3%