2020 Daily Fantasy Football: DraftKings NFL Week 4 Stacks & Value Picks

Welcome back to Week 4 of our season-long DFS battle.  Week 3 was another great week for the boys. 

Week 3 Recap:

Last week, Kendall rode the backs of Tyler Lockett and Allen Robinson all the way to a lineup in the top 3% of all lineups. Unfortunately, he didn’t get ceiling games from Mitch Trubisky and DeSean Jackson, but beggars can’t be choosers. Tino’s lineup got hit with injuries pretty bad with Diontae Johnson entering the concussion protocol. He hit the nail on the head with the Russell Wilson and DK “Decaf” Metcalf stack, so we’re hoping you’re tailing us cause the boys are buzzzzzin. 

Without further ado, here are our Week 4 lineups:

Stacks of the Week

KB: My game stack of the week comes from the Arizona Cardinals against the Carolina Panthers. Before the news that DeAndre Hopkins would be a game-time decision, my stack of the week was going to be Nuk and Kyler Murray. The Panthers defense has been bleeding points and after the disappointment from Cardinals players in week 3, I think you could see low ownership on these guys. I still like the options in this game for a stack regardless of whether Hopkins plays or not. Pair Kyler and Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, or Kenyan Drake. 

Some options to run it back from the Panthers would be guys like Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, or DJ Moore who all should be involved in a game with a high projected point total. 

Projected Ownership

Kyler Murray ($7,000) – 9.3%

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) – 14.84%

Christian Kirk ($4,400) – 2.4%

Teddy Bridgewater ($5,600) – 1.31%

Mike Davis ($5,700) – 14.69%

Robby Anderson ($5,400) – 5.85%

JT: My stack of the week comes from the duo that won me several fantasy titles last season. The two underrated Miami Men named Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker are in a position to be absolute steals this week.  FitzMagic sports a head-scratching price at $5,400, behind Kirk Cousins, Phillip Rivers, and Baker Mayfield.  He is playing against a pass defense that will be without ex-Jet Jamal Adams, and (insert stat here).  

Parker is one of my favorite “under the radar” players in the entire league, and this looks like a smash spot for him to put his early-season hamstring struggles behind him and torch the Seattle secondary.  I expect Russ to “cook”, the Seahawks to opt to stray away from their injured backfield, and Fitz to chuck the ball around somewhat recklessly in the 2nd half.  Expect Parker to get in the endzone and for Fitz to rack up the passing yards against this hobbled (and just plain bad) Seattle secondary.

Projected Ownership

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400): 2.06%

Devante Parker ($5,700): 5.73%

Triple Stack of the Week

KB: For my triple stack this week I’m going to attack this Seahawks defense with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Myles Gaskin, and DeVante Parker. Ryan Fitzpatrick is disrespectfully underpriced this week at only $5,400 DK. Considering quarterbacks this season have averaged 28.7 fantasy points per game with three top-8 fantasy finishes, in part because of the torrid pace that Russell Wilson is on. #LetRussCook has come to fruition so far this season and this defense is struggling.

If the Seahawks offense continues to play as we have seen them play so far this season, then the Dolphins will be playing catch-up all game. This come from behind game script plays right into the hands of not only Parker but also Gaskin. Last week, Fitzpatrick only threw the ball 20 times but 50% of those attempts were either to Parker or Gaskin. Parker is coming off of a hamstring that has hampered him a bit through the first 3 weeks of the season, but in each week he has improved on his total yards receiving from the week prior. This very well could be Parker’s best game so far this season. 

The case for Gaskin is an easy one. Through 3 weeks, Gaskin is averaging 18 opportunities a game, 5 of which are targets. He has a pretty firm grasp on the Miami backfield (at least up to the 1-yard line when Miami brings in Jordan Howard) and he should be heavily involved once again against Seattle. 

This cheap stack opens up enough value for us to run it back with some players on Seattle. I like running it back with either Tyler Lockett, who exploded last week, or D.K Metcalf. For me, both of these players are so good and Russell Wilson is elite, that I just want the lesser projected ownership of the two. 

Projected Ownership

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) – 2.06%

Devante Parker ($5,700) – 5.73%

Myles Gaskin ($5,000) – 8.40%

Tyler Lockett ($7,000) – 12.24%

DK Metcalf ($6,800) – 20.99%

JT: I will admit that at first glance it looks gross. However, that is often times where you find the most value and defeat the chalk in large tournaments.

This week, my triple stack of the week comes out of Sin City. I’m stacking up 3 of Gruden’s guys with Derek Carr ($5,300), Darren Waller ($5,200), and Hunter Renfrow ($4,600). When you hear Buffalo’s defense, you typically want to steer clear and go the other direction. Through 3 games, the Bills defense has looked wildly overrated. The Raider’s offensive strengths match up well with the Achilles heel of the Buffalo defense.  Through 3 weeks, Buffalo is 26th in the league against the tight end position, and 27th against the QB position.  The strength of the Buffalo defense plays along the sidelines in CB Tre’Davious White and deep with FS Micah Hyde.  

Gruden’s game plan should be to pepper his best offensive players and avoid throwing the ball near the sidelines, effectively making the offense run through Waller, Jacobs, and Renfrow.  My stack would include Carr and Waller as the foundational piece and depending on your availability to spend either Jacobs ($6,800) or Renfrow ($4,600). 

Vegas has shown their ability to play up to their competition while hyper-targeting Waller, and I think that’s what they do in this game. Roll the dice with Gruden’s boys against this defense who have given up an average of 30 points over these past two weeks to the Dolphins and Rams.

Projected Ownership

Derek Carr ($5,300) – 0.58%

Darren Waller ($5,200) – 12%

Hunter Renfrow ($4,600) – 3.61%

Josh Jacobs ($6,80) – 7.93%

Values of the Week

Tino’s Value of the Week:  DJ Moore ($5,600)

It has been a rough start for DJ Moore and his fantasy owners this year.  But $5,600? That feels like an overreaction to me.  

Moore has seen 26 targets through 3 games, giving him an average of almost 9 targets per game. While he has not gotten into the endzone this season, Moore remains a focal point of this offense and is bound for some positive regression in what should be a high scoring game against the Cardinals.  If they trail late, I expect Moore to rack up yards and be a value at this price point. 

Don’t overthink it. Take the talented WR at a massive discount due to his recent struggles and last week’s poor game script. 

Projected Ownership

DJ Moore ($5,600) – 13.6%

KB’s Value of the Week: Myles Gaskin ($5,000)

I’m in total agreement with Tino on this one. JT laid it out excellently but if you’re still not convinced. 

DJ Moore back-to-back Top-2 weeks in Air Yards Share (55% & 57%)… and yet his DK price has slipped to $5,600?

As the great @Ihartitz might ponder… in this economy?

— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) September 30, 2020

But I’m going to give you another value to keep your eye on this week. Myles Gaskin. He’s been heavily involved in Miami thus far and I think we could see a ceiling game from Gaskin this week. I already went into Gaskin a bit earlier on so I’m not going to go into him anymore, but I will point out a caveat for starting Gaskin which has been red zone work. He’s not used in the red zone really at all so we’re really relying on the volume. I still really like Gaskin as a cheap option in a projected high point total game. 

Projected Ownership

Myles Gaskin ($5,000) – 8.40%