Somehow, someway, Lamar Miller will enter 2019 with zero competition… again. Although Miller has been among the league’s least efficient RBs since joining the Texans, the team continues to leave him unchallenged each year. Most recently, the team surprisingly released RB D’Onta Foreman, despite the third-year back receiving rave reviews all offseason. Unfortunately, Miller will once again hog volume in one of the NFL’s Top-10 offenses. This should set Miller up to again hover in his usual RB18-24 range, with upside for more if this offense hits its ceiling.
Meanwhile, Foreman’s ultimate landing spot, and the Texans’ No.2 RB job become intriguing Training Camp Storylines.
Well, shit. We’ve been clamoring for Foreman, the former Doak Walker Award Winner, to steal this job from Miller all offseason. Yet, despite being healthy, slimmed-down, and “light years ahead,” Foreman was sent packing for “poor work habits.” Though the Texans presented a juicy opportunity, Foreman could land on his fantasy feet with an RB-needy team like the Bucs.
Meanwhile, Miller’s 2019 fantasy value needs to be reevaluated. Though he’s the epitome of unexciting, Miller’s now facing virtually zero competition within a highly opportune fantasy home.
For one, this offense offers juggernaut upside. The team ranked 11th in scoring last season, despite Watson clearly recovering for a significant por. Just two seasons ago, the Texans were at a historic 40.5 PPG pace when all healthy, and Miller was the RB8 in this span. If the offense finds even just the middle-ground, Miller could easily best his RB16, RB19, and RB22 finishes of the past three years.
Plus, not only is Foreman gone, but so is Alfred Blue and his 170 touches. The “Ground Pie” here is substantial, as HC Bill O’Brien has ranked 1st, 5th, 6th, 11th, and 4th in rushing attempts as the Texans HC. Miller is in-line for his greatest slice yet.
Even if unsexy, Miller should see Top-10 volume in a Top-10 offense, giving him (wait for it) ugly Top-10 fantasy upside. Sacrifice the Draft-Day “ohhs” and “ahhs,” and feel confident burning a sixth rounder in Miller’s juicy situation. He rises to my R26 in the 5th/6th turn range.