The gods have done us quite the favor. The Week 1 prices were released by DraftKings recently which has turned my fantasy football itch into a full on scratching frenzy. I’ve never understood why Week 1 gets released before the first preseason game is even played, but nonetheless it gives us more time to analyze and adjust based on what unfolds over the course of the next month.
So without further ado, here are my top reactions to an initial passing of the DraftKings pricing:
The Minnesota Vikings are grossly underpriced
I couldn’t believe what I was seeing when I checked out the Week 1 Falcons-Vikings matchup. There’s a pretty decent point total projection of 47.5 points, all while keeping in mind that Atlanta is dealing with so many injuries on their defense. Kirk Cousins ($5,500), Dalvin Cook ($6,000), Adam Thielen ($6,800) and Stefon Diggs ($6,700) all seem vastly underpriced. Cook might be my favorite play on the slate thus far given that he’s expected to have a much larger role in the offense under new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. In addition to that, the Falcons were a team we often targeted with RBs due to the amount of receptions they allowed to backs.
With the receivers, you look at the price for Thielen and can’t help but notice his drop from 2018. This was a guy who was consistently in the 8k range as he was racking up insane target and reception numbers. A drop from 8 to a high end 6k is noticeable to me. Diggs wasn’t as high as Thielen in 2018, but was still a mid 7k kind of guy and is arguably the more talented/gifted receiver — especially when it comes to the big plays. These guys are definitely worth considering when Week 1 comes around.
49ers-Buccaneers is the underrated game to target
Currently sitting at 49 points in projected game total, I’d expect this total to climb as we get closer to Week 1. Two teams with questionable defenses potentially heading to a shootout is what DFS and fantasy is all about. The Tampa Bay players like Mike Evans ($7,900) and Chris Godwin ($6,200) seem to be reasonably priced with some pretty high ceilings. The Bucs haven’t been big with their running game, so nailing down the aerial targets could pay nice dividends.
Where it gets interesting is the 49ers side of the ball. Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,800) is coming back from injury and at first I’d imagine he’s playing catch-up on the road. George Kittle ($6,600) and Dante Pettis ($5,400) carry some big upside in a pass heavy game script. Don’t forget about new RB addition Tevin Coleman, who is currently going for ($5,000). He’s familiar with Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme, and has the inside track over a currently injured Jerick McKinnon. Coleman can catch passes, and if he ends up being the lead guy Week 1, this price could be an absolute steal.
Hop on the Air Raid train before it’s too late
Luckily, the Cardinals open the 2019 season at home against the Detroit Lions. It’s no secret that The Wolf is all in on the Cardinals and their offense under Kliff Kingsbury. It all starts with rookie Kyler Murray ($5,600) who drips in upside thanks to his legs and an expected up tempo offense under Kingsbury. The more plays Arizona runs, the more points they accumulate naturally. Receiver Christian Kirk currently sitting at ($4,700) looks like a fantastic play and should be a very good bet to hit the 100+ yard bonus. The real question will be the value on David Johnson ($7,700) after a disappointing season. He should see large volume totals, and we know the additional damage he can do in the receiving game. This guy used to be going anywhere from 8-10k in 2017 so this current price tag could be a season-low if we expect him return to his normal self.
