Kerryon Johnson’s Fantasy Upside Skyrockets with Theo Riddick Released

Now locked-in as the third-down and starting RB, Kerryon Johnson's upside is soaring

We didn’t enter Training Camp in Kerryon Johnson’s corner, but he’s rapidly rising up my 2019 Fantasy Football Big Board. First, despite HC Matt Patricia’s committee preferences, RBs coach Kyle Caskey hinted Johnson could emerge as a workhorse. The coach raved “nobody’s setting a number” on how many touches Kerryon Johnson receives this upcoming season, vowing to ride “the best back.”

Consequently, many expect Johnson’s usage to skyrocket, especially in the passing game. The Athletic believes “50-plus” catches” are well within Johnson’s reach, while the Detroit Free Press predicted KJ would haul in “at least 60 passes in 2019.”

These projections originally felt blasphemous with third-down aficionado Theo Riddick on the team. Yet, Riddick was just released, opening Kerryon’s door to massive receiving work. Entrenched as the starting and now third-down RB within new OC Darrell Bevell’s run-centric offense, Johnson offers a limitless ceiling if he can stay healthy. 

Indeed, CJ Anderson will have a role in this backfield, probably as a “short-yardage vulture.” LeGarrette Blount was fed a disgusting 154 carries despite his putrid 2.7 YPC in 2018, afterall, and Anderson just logged a career-high 6.0 YPC amidst his late-season Renaissance. He’ll plunge away 6+ TDs and some early-down series.

Still, Johnson’s new stranglehold on the invaluable receiving role here is crucial. Riddick hasn’t been under 53 catches in four straight years (61 rec last season in 14 GP),and KJ should inherit the vast majority of this work. He’s reportedly dazzled as a receiver all offseason, and can be incredibly dangerous in space.

In fact, in Riddick’s two missed contests, Kerryon first set a career-high in rushing (158 yards, Week 7), followed by a career-high in receiving (6 rec, 69 yards, 8 tgts). Particularly of note, KJ played a career-high 81% of snaps versus Seattle, while his team trailed sans Riddick.

Plus, even if shared with CJ Thick’ums, the Lions’ “Ground Pie” should be bountiful under run-heavy OC Darrell Bevell. Through 12-years as OC, Bevell’s team’s have averaged 488 total carries, and half have finished Top-Five in rush yardage. Most of this volume has funneled to the top RB, who’ve averaged 292 carries (over 60%), while 8 of 12 lead RBs topped 310 touches.

Of course, many Bevell’s attacks featured bruising Clydesdales in Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, who contrast KJ’s style. Still, Bevell already promised “We’re going to run the football, we’re going to run it really well,” when asked about his offense. Even if not Lynch or AP, Johnson should be in line for 17-20 weekly touches. He averaged 17.4 touches from Weeks 7-11 prior to getting hurt, averaging 15.1 FPPG as the RB11.

Johnson still must prove he can stay healthy with the added work. He missed the last six games of his rookie season after his workload began to climb, and has now missed time in three straight years dating back to college. He’s not without risk.

Still, Kerryon’s ceiling is incredibly high following Riddick’s release. No longer destined for “Between-the-20s” purgatory, Johnson should haul in 50-60 balls while feasting on the largest slice of Bevell’s massive “Ground Pie.” The talent is there, as Johnson popped off the tape while ranking second in YPC (5.4) last season and eighth in broken-tackle rate (22%). Now, the opportunity seems ready to match. He rises to 42 overall on my latest Big Board, still slightly below the ECR as we await more clarity on Anderson’s role.

Author

  • Founder of Roto Street Journal. Lover of workhorse backs, target hog wideouts, and Game of Thrones. Aspiring to be the "Brady" and "Leo" of the fantasy universe.

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