The art of who to start or sit can be as tricky as the art of finding who optimal candidates are to consider as “borderline candidates.” So, hopefully, the biggest question marks at the wide receiver position are here to help put your Week 14 worries at ease.
As always, check out The Wolf’s Week 14 Fantasy Rankings if you have any other tricky lineup decisions.
With the playoffs next week, those who are fighting to secure that special seeding spot or paw and claw their way into the playoffs should heed the sage advice offered below.
The wide receiver position offers the biggest booms and busts at the position. Consistent production at the position is generally a myth. But maximizing favorable matchups and leveraging upside is the key to winning the WR3/Flex battle and ultimately the weekly matchup.
Get nice and cozy. Don’t worry, I’ll wait.
Ready? Let’s go!
Week 14 WR Start ‘Em
Calvin Ridley vs. Jaguars
Cue the revenge game narrative! It always makes for good fantasy headlines.
Beyond that, Ridley has scored over 12 fantasy points in three of his last five games. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars bleed fantasy points to the wide receiver position, allowing the third-most to opposing wideouts.
Over the last four games, the Jaguars have allowed four WRs to score nearly 19 ppg.
As for the quarterback throwing him the ball, perhaps it’s time to at least hit the pause button on the Will Levis hate?
Since returning from injury, Levis is pacing for 4,080 yards to go along with 30 TDs and 8 interceptions.
It’s a match made in heaven. The Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL in EPA per dropback (8.4).
Since reuniting with Levis in week 9, Ridley has commanded 50.7% of the team’s air yards while drawing 25.9% of the team’s targets. He’s been the first read on 35.5% of pass plays and is averaging a crisp 2.52 Y/RR.
In other words, Levis and Ridley are in lockstep with each other and are balling out against a smash matchup. Yes, please!
The Wolf and the market are in agreement on Ridley’s Week 14 ranking, landing as the WR14 on the week
Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Tennessee Titans
Who doesn’t love a wide receiver duel?!
It would be more exciting if Trevor Lawrence wasn’t on IR and a starting QB/WR divisional duel was taking place. No slight to Mac Jones, who has been serviceable and knows that his bread gets buttered by throwing to Thomas.
The proof is in the pudding. In his two weeks with Jones at the helm, Thomas has scored at least 13 fantasy points on the back of 17 targets. He isn’t just doing it in the end zone either.
On the back of those 17 targets, Thomas has caught nine for 158 yards alongside a trip to pay dirt.
He’s destroying defenses with his efficiency and after-the-catch ability, averaging 9.4 YAC/rec. at a 2.73 Y/RR clip.
More importantly, Thomas is being targeted on 23% of his routes and has been the first read on 29.2% of said routes. He’s doing a great job of getting open and making things simple for Jones.
Tennessee has surrendered at least 14 points per game to wideouts across the last three games, so Thomas is in line to match Ridley point for fantasy point. Get your popcorn ready!
Brian Thomas is a favorite of the Wolf’s in his Week 14 rankings, ranking as the WR23 (+3 vs ECR)
Other starts: Khalil Sharki, Jakobi Meyers
Week 14 WR Sit ‘Em
Jaylen Waddle vs. Jets
This brings me no joy to write. It’s appointment TV to see him do the penguin dance after boogying on some defensive back for an explosive touchdown.
Week 12: 28.4. Week 13: 11.3. That’s not bad production; it’s certainly better than the standard Waddle has held himself to thus far this season. He had reached double digits only once from weeks 1 through 11.
Why would I bet against Waddle when the Jets have allowed double-digit scoring from the position in four of the last five games?
He just doesn’t see the targets for me to bet on him. With Sauce Gardner likely out this week, Waddle could take advantage of soft coverage.
Miami just doesn’t need Waddle currently. Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane have become focal points in the Dolphins’ aerial attack.
His 14.3% target share and 0.17 T/RR since week 7 don’t inspire much confidence. He’s the first read on only 14.7% of team dropbacks, behind Smith and Tyreek Hill (24.3% and 22.1%, respectively) and just ahead of Achane (13.2%).
Relying on Waddle just feels like a fool’s gambit this week.
The Wolf is a little more optimistic about Waddle than the market, ranking him 34th (+2 vs. ECR) in Week 14
Deebo Samuel vs. Chicago Bears
Here’s a rag to clean up the mess after the obvious spit take. The fact of the matter is that Deebo doesn’t look like Deebo in 2024.
He has failed to sniff 13 fantasy points in the last five games and has scored less than 7 in his last three games. That’s not going to cut it against the Bears, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy ppg to the position.
“But Deebo is a YAC machine in space; he can easily return value.”
Well, historically, dissenters would be correct; however, the Bears shut YAC down in its tracks.
Since 2022, Deebo has finished as a WR3 or worse in 59% of his starts while rewarding believers with a WR1 finish only 26% of the time.
He’s relied heavily on YAC to return value this season, seeing only 17.7% of the 49ers air yards. There’s just not enough evidence that he will put up fantasy points against the Bears for me to recommend starting him.
Deebo Samuel is ranked 33rd (-4 vs. ECR) in the Wolf’s Week 14 rankings
Other sits: Rome Odunze, DK Metcalf
