Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles head to São Paulo, Brazil to square off against the Green Bay Packers, led by Jordan Love.
The Eagles will look to bounce back after they were thrashed 9-32 by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round of the 2023-2024 NFL Playoffs. Meanwhile, the Packers handled Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys 48-32 in their Wild Card game. In the Divisional Round Green Bay was less fortunate, but put up a great fight against the eventual Super Bowl runner-ups, the San Francisco 49ers. After a neck-and-neck first half, the Packers scored a quick 15 points to take a commanding 21-14 lead heading into the fourth quarter. They ultimately lost that game after a field goal and a last-minute rushing touchdown from none other than Christian McCaffrey.
After starting last season 10-1, the Eagles lost five out of their last six games, plus saw key players like Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox retire this past offseason. Philadelphia will look to start something new with their new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore – although nothing is guaranteed because the Eagles have now had six coordinators in just three seasons of football. Additionally, they signed Saquon Barkley this summer to boost the run game, but it may look a little different without their longtime center, Jason Kelce as well as new coordinators.
Last season for the Packers was nearly the exact opposite. It looks like Green Bay has done it yet again, in terms of consistently drafting and developing talent at the quarterback position, with Jordan Love. From Week 11 until the end of the season, Love ranked first in total touchdowns (20), total passing yards (2,150), EPA per attempt (+0.26), sack-to-interception rate (4.1%), touchdown-to-interception ratio (18-1), and PFF passing grade. During that stretch the Packers went 6-2, earning themselves a Wild Card spot – which ultimately resulted in falling just short of a Super Bowl appearance.
ANALYSIS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
We are all aware of the talent that the Philadelphia Eagles have on offense. Besides Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and newly acquired running back Saquon Barkley, the Eagles have a strong offensive line powered by a violent run game. Last season, the Eagles boasted an offensive DVOA of 8.3%, which ranked 10th in the NFL. Saquon is an upgrade at running back, but I wonder how this offensive line functions without Jason Kelce up front. On the defensive end, Philadelphia had a defensive DVOA of 11.4%, which ranked 29th amongst the 32 NFL teams. Like I mentioned earlier, they will also be without their longtime defensive leader, Fletcher Cox.
In his head coaching career, Nick Sirianni is 20-18-3 (52.%) ATS when he is listed as the favorite – including a record of 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS over his last five games as a favorite.
Per Evan Abrams, in Jalen Hurts’ career, he is 6-14-1 (30%) ATS playing as a favorite outside Philadelphia. He has lost three straight starts and four out of his last five as a favorite away from home. Additionally, in road or neutral starts, Jalen Hurts owns a record of 10-18-1 (35.7%) ATS, which is the worst out of 104 qualifying quarterbacks since 2020.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Green Bay Packers are one of the youngest teams in the league. Their defense produced an 8.2% DVOA, which ranked 27th in the NFL – not too far ahead of the Eagles. To combat this, they fired their defensive coordinator Joe Barry – as well as acquired Xavier McKinney from the Giants, and used a second-round pick on Javon Bullard. On the offensive end, LaFleur had this offense producing a DVOA of 13%, which ranked 6th in the NFL. In terms of upgrades on that end, they drafted standout running back MarShawn Lloyd out of the University of Southern California and signed Josh Jacobs from the Raiders to lead their running back room.
Towards the end of the season, rookie Dontayvion Wicks began to show signs of promise. The only players that recorded higher first downs per route run than Wicks last season were Rashee Rice, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk. Not to mention, they also have Jayden Reed, who put up a 64-793-8 line as a rookie – plus two athletic tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.
In Matt LaFleur’s head coaching career, he is 22-10 (68.8%) ATS when he is listed as the underdog – including a record of 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS over his last six games as an underdog. Coach LaFleur is no stranger to hot starts either – he is 12-3 (80%) SU and 13-2 (86.7%) ATS in the first three games of the season.
This matchup is essentially between two top-10 offenses – both with bottom-10 defenses. The offense may roll tonight.
TOTAL (O/U)
I typically keep these short and simple. Primetime unders have been on a year since last season and it is not a secret anymore. This will be the seventh NFL Friday Night Football game since 1999. In those other six games, the over went 6-0 (100%) – with three of those games having totals of 45 or higher.
PICKS (1-3U BASE)
- Packers +3 (-150) 2U
- O 42.5 / Packers +8.5 (-140) 1.5U
- Packers +105 1.5U
