Every fantasy manager wants to find that mid-round running back that turns into an RB1 by the end of the season. Let me introduce you to JK Dobbins. Dobbins is currently a late fifth-round pick (ADP: 58, RB18) and The Wolf currently has him slotted at RB17 (No. 49 overall). I wrote about Dobbins as a potential target for zero RB drafters. However, I believe Dobbins should be targeted by everyone, regardless of draft strategy.
The former Buckeye has spent a significant portion of his NFL career on the sideline dealing with injuries, including a torn ACL in 2021. Yet, during his limited time on the field, Dobbins has shown flashes of greatness.
Although Dobbins was never able to reach 100 percent health-wise last year, he was still able to find success down the stretch. Following his Week 14 return, Dobbins averaged roughly 100 yards per game on 14 carries to close out the season. This four-game stretch also featured two games where Dobbins rushed for over 120 yards.
EFFICIENCY
JK Dobbins has only appeared in 23 NFL games across his initial three seasons in the NFL. But, Dobbins has been one of the league’s most efficient backs when healthy. Let’s take a look at some key efficiency/advanced metrics and how Dobbins stacked up against other running backs:
2020 (15 games)
Fantasy Points Per Opportunity: 1.07 (7th)
Yards Per Carry (50 min.): 6.0 (1st)
Fantasy Points Over Expected Per Game: 3.3 (7th)
Juke Rate: 30.9 percent (5th)
Breakaway Runs (15+ yard carries): 11 (4th)
Missed all of 2021 season
2022 (8 games)
Fantasy Points Per Opportunity: 0.81 (28th)
Yards Per Carry (50 min.): 5.7 (4th)
Fantasy Points Over Expected Per Game: 1.6 (18th)
Juke Rate: 43.4 percent (2nd)
Breakaway Runs (15+ yard carries): 10 (20th)
While some metrics took dips in 2022, it must be kept in mind that Dobbins was coming off an ACL tear. The key takeaway from these metrics should be that Dobbins is a talented runner who is capable of becoming a very viable starting NFL running back.
Although Dobbins has proven that he can be productive when he gets the ball, he has never had a truly impactful season from a fantasy perspective. Aside from injury, this has largely been because Dobbins has not seen a high level of volume at any point in his career. But, I feel the Baltimore offense will look different in 2023.
TODD MONKEN HAS ARRIVED
Gone are the days of Greg Roman where the offense features players like Gus Edwards and Kenyan Drake get significant carries. The Ravens under Greg Roman were notorious for utilizing three running backs on a regular basis, limiting the fantasy production of its starting running back.
Luckily, the Ravens parted ways with Roman and have brought in former Georgia OC Todd Monken as its offensive coordinator. Monken has heavily relied on his lead back through his previous four seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator (Buccaneers and Browns).
2016: Doug Martin – 18 attempts per game
2017: Doug Martin – 12.5 attempts per game
2018: Peyton Barber – 14.6 attempts per game
2019: Nick Chubb – 18.6 attempts per game
It must be noted that in 2017 and 2018, Monken’s offenses were bottom five in the NFL in terms of rush attempt percentage. I think everyone remembers the Jameis Winston era in Tampa Bay where they let him throw the ball 50 times per game and often to the other team:
While the overall rushing volume during some of these years is nothing crazy, Monken primarily relied on a single running back during these seasons. Monken has also made it clear that he hopes to get running backs more involved in the passing game. This does nothing but help Dobbins’ fantasy outlook as he was more than a capable pass-catcher in college and has yet to be unleashed in the Baltimore pass game.
THE FINAL TAKE
In my opinion, Dobbins currently provides some of the best value of any running back in drafts. The Ravens have maintained one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL in recent years. I fully expect the Ravens’ rushing attack to be at full force in 2023 with Lamar Jackson and Dobbins leading the way. Jackson will undoubtedly be a major factor but I believe Dobbins will eat up the majority of the running back touches.
In a limited time, Dobbins has proven that he has the skill set to be an elite talent in his position. The introduction of Monken in Baltimore makes me believe that Dobbins will be provided with the three-down volume to be a high-end fantasy asset in 2023. For this reason, Dobbins will be one of my biggest targets in 2023 drafts.
