This is it. Unless you are a strangely passionate XFL or Aussie Rules fan, the pinnacle of professional football is this Sunday, where the Chiefs face off with the Eagles for the Lombardi Trophy. For many, that means charcuterie boards and funny commercials, but for the rest of us, it’s the last chance to cash in.
Luckily for us, Underdog Fantasy is offering a site-wide special for The Big Game, with Jalen Hurts 0.5 total yards. This “free-square” entry went live on Thursday, so get ready to pair up and pay for the drinks this weekend.
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PATRICK MAHOMES: OVER 25.5 COMPLETIONS
There are a lot of players in this league to doubt. From backups to starters, benchwarmers to all-pros, there’s plenty of hate to go around. Patrick Mahomes is not the one to doubt. A truly transcendent talent in pursuit of his second ring after likely bagging his second MVP in only five seasons of starting, there’s not much bad to say about him. He always proves the doubters are foolish. They’ll be worse without Tyreek Hill, right? Wrong. Joe Burrow always beats Patrick Mahomes, right? Wrong. And here we are, in the Super Bowl, and the Eagles are favored to defeat the Chiefs. I’ll say it again, Mahomes is not the one to bet against.
In both of his Super Bowl appearances, he has over 25.5 completions. Even in that stinker against the Buccaneers where the offense only managed nine points, he still hit on this over. Not counting the game against the Jaguars where he missed most of the game due to injury, he has had at least 26 completions in six consecutive playoff games. Even if the Chiefs lose this game, it should make it even more likely he has to pass more and hits this entry.
MILES SANDERS: UNDER 0.5 TOUCHDOWNS
Last week, the Philadelphia Eagles tied the record for the most rushing touchdowns in a season with 38, tying the 1924 Frankston Yellow Jackets (who knew?). A lot of players have scored rushing touchdowns for the Eagles, but let’s focus in on Miles Sanders. Going into last week, Sanders found himself on a five-game streak touchdown-less. He broke that against the 49ers, but considering it was a 31-7 victory and he got a mere 11 carries, I don’t see this repeating. Moreso, in one-score games, it seems he cannot find the endzone like he can in the blowouts. He scored nine of his 13 touchdowns in blowout victories, with only four coming in one-possession games (two against the Packers in a 40-33 barnburner; the other two way back in Week 4 against Jacksonville). And with Jalen Hurts, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott all sniffing out touchdowns recently, I wouldn’t bet on Miles Sanders to get there.
ISIAH PACHECO: OVER 68.5 RUSHING+RECEIVING YARDS
Last week, we pulled out all the stats to tell you why Isiah Pacheco would succeed. It was in the cards, as Pacheco has been a huge factor in this offense since he began taking most of the workload in this backfield. He is an underrated talent that Andy Reid’s creative brain knows how to utilize. In the Conference Championship, he performed great; he just got a lot of his yards on short catch-and-runs instead of on the ground. He blew out the line for his total yards and did it with an uncharacteristically low 26 rushing yards.
To reiterate, Chiefs starting running backs have averaged 69.2 rushing yards per game since Patrick Mahomes took over, that alone over the total of 68.5. Additionally, the Eagles feature a bottom-10 run defense in the entire NFL. The Chiefs should look to exploit this, especially considering their pass defense has let up the least yards-per-attempt all season. Never forget the last Super Bowl victory for the Chiefs, where Damien Williams exploded for 133 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers. The Chiefs may be the Patrick Mahomes show, but the significance of the young stud Pacheco cannot be understated.
TRAVIS KELCE OVER 15.15 FANTASY POINTS
Fantasy season isn’t over just yet, folks. Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ go-to guy when the lights are bright, and that’s not gonna end here. Last week, he put up a well-rounded 7-78-1 receiving line. The week before? A game-breaking 14 receptions and two touchdowns. To close out 2022, he put up back-to-back 100-yard performances with a combined 16 receptions in those two games. What he lacks in one stat, he makes up for in another. If there was a way to say, “He’s a playmaker and I want to put money on it,” this is how. I would bank on Kelce to come up big like he always does, whether it’s receptions, yards, touchdowns, or. . . D. All of the above.
A.J. BROWN: OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS
Most platforms are low on A.J. Brown right now. On the surface, it seems normal, as he hasn’t been hauling in quite as many catches as of late. But we need some context. The past two weeks have been victories by a combined score of 69-14. And just before that, Hurts wasn’t playing, which lowered his receptions as well.
We can assume that, firstly, this will be a close game, and secondly, Hurts will be his quarterback, obviously. In his last game fitting these criteria against the Giants, he drew 10 targets. The game before, he had 16 targets. Looking at the bigger picture, we can now see why this line is low by his standards. A.J. Brown is a big-time player, one that Nick Sirianni cannot leave this game without giving him his due diligence. Look for Brown to lead this receiving attack heavily.
MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING: UNDER 37.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Last week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was able to have a big game, with 116 yards and a touchdown. While this seems promising, the missing context starts to answer some confusion. Kadarius Toney left the game in the first half with an ankle injury, followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster in the third quarter, and finally Mecole Hardman took a big hit that caused him to see the sideline. MVS is talented, but this performance is definitely an outlier.
With that game out of the way, let’s look at the rest of his resume. Until last week, he had not eclipsed 37.5 yards since December 4: a game where he caught a 42-yard strike and other than that, had one other reception. Mecole Hardman has been ruled out, but Valdes-Scantling has a very different role, and this injury should not have an impact on his volume. Toney and Smith-Schuster are slated to return according to the most recent injury report, so his role should fall back down to Earth. With all that being said though, the official confirmation of their health may lower this line. On the other hand, this bet could be enticing to fade if these receivers do not see action. But assuming all factors remain, take the under.
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Jerick Mckinnon UNDER 48.5 rushing and receiving yards
Look for Isiah Pacheco to lead the way here; Mckinnon’s production is volatile
DeVonta Smith UNDER 64.5 receiving yards
Similar principle: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith’s lines are too close for comfort. . . I like his under.
Dallas Goedert OVER 9.95 fantasy points
Goedert has been Hurts security blanket, especially in the playoffs. A mix of large volume and yards should get the job done.
Boston Scott OVER 9.5 rushing yards
Win or lose, it would feel wrong for the loyal Eagles running-back to leave this game without double-digit yards.
Noah Gray OVER 13.5 receiving yards
I LOVE this ‘over’. The last two weeks has seen this Kansas City wide-receiver corps decimated, which means Noah Gray should have gotten a lot of reps with Mahomes as of late. . . Give him his flowers.
