NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football Betting Picks, Player Props: Falcons vs Panthers

Coming off a 4-0 week, we’re back with more Thursday night picks, presented by PrizePicks. We got exactly what we wanted out of last week’s game, including a relatively entertaining contest in Houston. Miles Sanders predictably ran all over the Texans defense to finish with 93 yards, and AJ Brown had a good game but stayed under his number of 70.5 pretty comfortably. Dallas Goedert scored in the fourth to cap off a huge night and hit our value play, and the Eagles immediately went for two to seal the over.

If you’re new here, each week for the Thursday game I’ll be giving out four picks:

Lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PrizePicks. If you’ve never played PrizePicks, it allows users to pick and combine two to five player props to win up to 10x on an entry. If you’re a player prop bettor who typically uses a sportsbook, sign up for PrizePicks using our link below to view and take advantage of their very, very generous lines.

Week 10 starts off with the Falcons and the Panthers in a rematch of the shootout they played two weeks ago. The Falcons won 37-34 in OT and temporarily took over first place in the NFC South. Both teams followed up this matchup with losses, as Atlanta lost to the Chargers to move to 4-5, and Carolina fell to 2-7 after a beatdown from the Bengals. The Falcons are a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 43.5.

Season Record: 20-16, +5.6 units

Let’s go!


Maybe I’m reading too much into their previous matchup, and maybe I’m trying to ride the wave of three straight Thursday night overs. But no matter how I look at this game, I can’t see either team being able to stop what their opponent likes to do offensively.

The Falcons have the league’s 4th-ranked rushing offense, and they have no problem leaning on it. They’ll go to extreme lengths to utilize their run game, like attempting six second half passes in a game where they were trailing 35-17 in the third quarter. The last time these teams matched up, they ran for 167 yards, and that was with Cordarelle Patterson out of the lineup. Patterson returned last week, leading the backfield in carries and scoring twice, and should have an even larger role in this game.

Meanwhile, Carolina’s defense is ranked 28th against the run, and they’ve allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. Especially with rain potentially in the forecast, Atlanta could be in for a massive day on the ground.

As much as Carolina struggles to stop the run, Atlanta is even worse against the pass. They’re allowing 300 yards per game through the air, well above Pittsburgh and Tennessee for the highest mark in the league. PJ Walker has been named the starter despite being pulled for Baker Mayfield halfway through last week’s game, and will look for a repeat of his 317-yard performance against Atlanta in Week 8. Walker has led the team to 21+ points in all three games since Christian McCaffrey was traded, and I feel good about our odds if they can do that again.

These teams are both also in the bottom five in the league in terms of sacks, so both QBs will have plenty of time in the pocket in Charlotte.


Atlanta struggles to stop any pass catchers, but they have the worst time with opposing wideouts. They’ve allowed 1,905 receiving yards to wide receivers in 2022, which is almost 200 yards above Baltimore for the league lead, and their opponents’ leading receiver is averaging over 137 yards per game since Week 7.

DJ Moore got off to a slow start with 88 yards through three games, but has been putting up much better numbers since Walker took over. In four games that PJ Walker has started and completed for Carolina, Moore’s target share has remained about the same, but he’s averaging an additional catch and about 20 yards per game more with Walker. Those numbers were inflated a bit by a 152-yard performance in Week 8, but that came against Atlanta, who he’s averaged 76 yards per game against in his career. Moore should continue to be a significant piece in Carolina’s offense, and should get more than enough chances to hit this number.


Drake London has performed well for a rookie in a run-first offense, but still ranks 50th in receiving, averaging 41 yards per game. Atlanta’s offense has finally started getting Kyle Pitts involved in recent weeks, and that development has lowered London’s ceiling even further. Atlanta’s also attempted the 2nd-fewest passes in the NFL this year, and such a small volume of targets to go around can only support so many pass catchers.

London had just four catches for 31 yards in the last matchup of these teams, while Pitts had his best game of the year with nine catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. I’m expecting a similar output from both, and like London’s under here.


Cordarelle Patterson has missed four games this season, which freed up some reps for Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley in his absence. Allgeier took the lead role in this scenario, and actually leads the team in rushing attempts and rushing yardage through nine games. Patterson’s return last week could’ve put an end to Allgeier’s relevance, but instead, he received 10 carries to Patterson’s 13, and outgained him 99-44 on the ground.

Allgeier’s efficiency and presence in a run-focused offense seems to be enough to solidify him as a factor in the offense, and he leads the team in red zone rushing attempts with 18. Patterson might be the safer play of the two, but I’m banking on Allgeier breaking one and punching in touchdown number two on the year.


  • Fan of Boston sports, hazy IPAs, and chicken pot pie. Frequent user of obscure movie quotes that nobody else finds funny.


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