The ManDog takes you through his favorite NFL Week 6 bets against the spread, along with a 6-point teaser.
Current Record: ATS: 9-10-1; Teasers: 2-3
Week 5 pick summary: Cowboys didn’t just cover, they demolished the Rams. The bills clobbered the Steelers for an easy cover, and the Jets blew out the banged-up Dolphins. The only losing pick was the Bucs, who lost on a Falcon’s backdoor cover. We moved to right below .500 on the year and now we’ll try to break through to a winning record in Week 6.
Cowboys (+6.5) at Eagles
- Dallas continues to dominate on both sides of the ball. Cooper Rush refuses to lose, and this feels like a nice spot for the Cowboys to continue their high-level play.
- The Eagles are undefeated but could have lost if Kyler Murray didn’t make a mistake late in the game. Then, the Cardinals missed a field goal to send the game to OT.
- Dallas and Philly have two of the top defensive lines in the league, which should keep the score low, again favoring a close game.
- Philadelphia has been a great second-quarter team but has struggled immensely to score in the rest of the games. Dallas is definitely the best opponent they’ve faced since the start of the season, and I expect Dallas to at least keep it close (and maybe even win).
Bills (-2.5) at Chiefs
- Following the ruckus that ensued at Arrowhead in the playoffs last year between these two rivals, Josh Allen gets his payback moment. Just as Pat Mahomes got revenge against Tom Brady a couple of weeks ago, Allen has his chance to right the ship.
- KC narrowly avoided a loss to the Raiders last week, and now faces the toughest opponent in the NFL. They were one Davante Adams foot away from dropping the game to the Raiders and had Adams caught that ball, the spread might’ve been even greater.
- The Bills’ front four should give Mahomes a really hard time staying comfortable in the pocket — they’ve managed three more sacks than the Chiefs’ defense while playing 41 fewer defensive snaps than the KC defense.
- The KC secondary has allowed the third-worst completion percentage in the league. Allen should be able to throw all over this vulnerable defense, which also ranks 20th in passing yards allowed (Bills are fourth). I’ll take the Bills as road favorites to win it by at least a field goal.
Jaguars (+2) at Colts
- The Jaguars are a better team than the Colts. Indianapolis has scored a total of six touchdowns through five games and goes up against a tough Jacksonville defense that should slow down Jonathan Taylor, who appears likely to play on Sunday.
- The Colts looked terrible against the Broncos last week and managed to beat them in one of the most unimpressive football games in years. Right now, I think I’d trust Trevor Lawrence over Russell Wilson even though Lawrence is coming off two sub-par games.
- The Jaguars handled the Coltd already this season — smashing them 24-0 in Week 2. I don’t see the Colts pulling this one out at home, despite the better record. I think Jacksonville rights the ship this week after an embarrassing loss to the Texans last week.
Vikings (-3) at Dolphins
- The Vikings tee off against a third-string QB in Skylar Thompson, who didn’t manage to do much against the Jets last week. Despite a weak Vikings defense, it’s tough to imagine Thompson keeping up with a dynamite Vikings offense.
- Miami and Minnesota are both in the bottom five in passing yards allowed, which should have shootout written all over it. But, I’d lean toward Kirk Cousins over Thompson in a shootout.
- Tyreek Hill should play, but he was in a walking boot after last week’s game — so I imagine he won’t be nearly 100%.
- I expect the Vikings to take care of business and maintain their stronghold of the NFC North.
6-point Teaser: Packers (-1), Buccaneers (-2.5)
