The ManDog takes you through his favorite picks against the spread throughout the season and even includes a 6 point teaser, every week.
Current Record: ATS: 2-2; Teasers: 0-1
Let’s kick off NFL Week 2.
Chargers at Chiefs (-3.5)
- It’s important to separate between teams continuing their success and those who surprised and impressed in Week 1. The Chiefs wasted no time picking up from 2021, posting 44 points against Arizona whose defense allowed the 11th fewest points last year.
- Patrick Mahomes showed no signs of decreased efficiency in his first game without All-Pro Tyreek Hill. Mahomes went 30-39 for 360 yards and five touchdowns. New acquisition Juju Smith-Schuster made a strong impact in his first game with KC, going 6-79. Expect Mahomes & Co to show out again — this time at home — against a division rival.
- The Chargers beat the Raiders Week 1 at home, but didn’t overwhelm in their performance. In their 24-19 victory, they managed to intercept Derek Carr three times — some on careless throws. Khalil Mack recorded three sacks in his first performance in a Chargers uniform.
- While Justin Herbert recorded 279 yards and three touchdowns, Los Angeles only managed to gain 47 yards on their final five drives of the game, following star-receiver Keenan Allen’s hamstring injury. Allen was declared out on Wednesday.
- I’ll take the Chiefs to cover the spread in a divisional showdown. Expect Mahomes to continue his hot streak, while the Chargers slow down a bit as they wait for Allen to return.
Colts at Jaguars (+4.5)
- Jacksonville showed some promising signs against Washington Week 1, even though they lost 28-22. The Jaguars had two easy touchdowns that never materialized and a missed 37-yard field goal.
- Trevor Lawrence showed chemistry with new WR Christian Kirk (6-117) and Travis Etienne (4-47, 2-18), while James Robinson returned to 2020 form with 11 rushes for 66 yards. Despite blowing an eight-point lead with nine minutes to go in the game, Jacksonville showed some fight on the road against a formidable opponent.
- The Colts were unimpressive against the Texans, who finished as a bottom-five team in 2021. Jonathan Taylor (31-161-1) and Michael Pittman (9-121-1) were the only bright spots in a matchup that ended in a tie.
- As I predicted last week, it is going to take some time for Matt Ryan to acclimate into the Colts’ offense. He struggled to capitalize on red zone opportunities against a weak Texans defense, despite throwing for 350 yards while throwing for a TD and a pick.
- I see the Jaguars keeping this divisional game close enough to cover by 5 points in their home opener. Jacksonville only allowed 95 rush yards to Washington last week, and should be able to (somewhat) contain Jonathan Taylor, and keep the game within reach.
Seattle (+10.5) at 49ers
- Geno Smith reminded everyone that he can still compete (23/28-195-2) when he upended Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday night.
- The Seahawks have won eight out of their last 10 games against San Fransisco. Those losses came by two and three points.
- The 49ers struggled in a rainy game against the Bears, losing 19-10. Trey Lance impressed with his rushing abilities, but had trouble passing, going 13 of 28 for 164 yards and an interception. Lance also lost his top RB, Elijah Mitchell, to a knee injury.
- Mitchell had six rushes for 41 yards, while backup Jeff Wilson posted nine rushes for an unimposing 22 yards.
- Seattle should easily keep the Niners within 10 points, despite San Fransisco playing at home. Pete Caroll has OWNED the Niners, and should find a way to battle with Geno & company in a division rivalry matchup.
Jets at Browns (-6)
- Cleveland took care of business against Carolina last week in classic fashion — they pounded the rock, held onto the football, and pressured Baker Mayfield. With backup QB Jacoby Brissett filling in for an injured Deshaun Watson, he posted 147 passing yards and a score.
- The Browns leaned heavily on their rushing attack: Nick Chubb had 22 carries for 141 yards and Kareem Hunt posted 11 rushes for 46 yards. Cleveland’s ability to control the game on the ground offers hope they can continue the theme against a Jets defense who surprisingly were effective against the Ravens rushing attack (albeit missing JK Dobbins).
- The Jets couldn’t capitalize on offense with Zach Wilson still recovering from a leg injury. NY was 2 for 14 on third down conversions, and now backup Joe Flacco must face the wrath of Myles Garrett in the Dawg Pound. The Browns had four sack last week, and there’s no signs of them slowing down in Week 2.
- While I don’t expect lots of points in this game, I anticipate a controlled attack by Cleveland against an inferior Jets roster. The Browns should limit the turnovers and slowly chip away with a monstrous run game and vicious pass rush. Cleveland should cover by a touchdown at home.
Week 2 Six Point Teaser
Saints +8.5 & Seahawks +16.5