Fantasy Football Week 6 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021) - Roto Street Journal
Player Stock Ticker
For the Best Breaking Fantasy Football News, Bookmark our Fantasy Stock Watch now: rotostreetjournal.com/stockwatch    

Fantasy Football Week 6 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021)

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player based on a similar methodology. For tips on negotiating trades, click here.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 5.

Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel download link has sortable data broken out for Weeks 1-4 individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.

PlayerTMPOSGPPR
AVG
XFP
AVG
DIF
AVG
CAR
AVG
TGT
AVG
AIR
YDS
AVG
D.HENRYTENRB526.924.62.329.633.6
N.HARRISPITRB519.323.8-4.516.47.80.6
D.ADAMSGBWR522.423.2-0.8012.2146.4
C.KUPPLAWR523.821.42.40.211.2101.4
C.MCCAFFREYCARRB319.520.9-1.417.35.74
C.RIDLEYATLWR414.620.2-5.6010.5113.3
M.WILLIAMSLACWR523.219.53.7010.2117.8
K.ALLENLACWR515.419.4-4010.689.4
T.HILLKCWR52319.13.90.810.2114.8
D.SAMUELSFWR52219.12.91.210.280.4
D.MOORECARWR519.718.90.80.89.8100.6
D.SWIFTDETRB518.218.9-0.710.87-3.2
T.MCLAURINWASWR517.418.7-1.309.8118
S.DIGGSBUFWR514.318.3-409.4127.2
D.COOKMINRB314.518.3-3.817.35.3-8.3
A.KAMARANORB517.418.2-0.8194.43.8
A.EKELERLACRB523.918.15.81453
D.WALLERLVTE514.418-3.609.698.4
M.EVANSTBWR518.517.60.909127.2
J.TAYLORINDRB516.917.3-0.4153.6-5.8
B.COOKSHOUWR515.317.2-1.90.28.8120.6
D.JOHNSONPITWR418.416.91.509.390
J.JEFFERSONMINWR519.516.72.809103.4
J.MEYERSNEWR512.616.5-3.909.282.8
A.JONESGBRB517.816.31.514.43.83.6
C.CLAYPOOLPITWR415.616.1-0.50.58.8109.5
E.ELLIOTTDALRB519.116.1317.42.2-1.4
C.GODWINTBWR516.416.10.30.28.475.6
M.PITTMANINDWR514.516-1.50.28.685.6
C.SUTTONDENWR513.716-2.307.8128.8
J.JACOBSLVRB314.815.9-1.1134-1
M.DAVISATLRB511.415.9-4.512.64.8-8.2
K.HUNTCLERB518.715.63.111.64.2-0.6
D.PARKERMIAWR411.815.5-3.708103.5
T.KELCEKCTE518.215.52.708.470.6
D.HENDERSONLARB416.615.31.3153.3-3.8
M.BROWNBALWR520.715.25.50.27.6109
C.PATTERSONATLRB520.415.25.28.2619.8
R.WOODSLAWR514.615.2-0.60.87.876.2
J.ROBINSONJAXRB517.115.1213.43.60.2
M.ANDREWSBALTE51714.92.107.673.4
L.FOURNETTETBRB513.314.8-1.511.24.86
C.LAMBDALWR514.514.7-0.20.67.674.4
J.CROWDERNYJWR213.814.7-0.907.537
D.SMITHPHIWR512.514.5-207.8101.8
C.EDMONDSARIRB512.814.5-1.7105.26.8
A.GIBSONWASRB51514.40.616.42.6-0.8
M.JONESJAXWR511.514.2-2.707.292
J.MIXONCINRB513.514.2-0.718.82-1.8
T.HIGGINSCINWR31414.1-0.107.361
D.METCALFSEAWR518.7144.707.696.8
A.BROWNTBWR417.8143.80.37.3102.5
C.DAVISNYJWR513.613.9-0.307.2107.8
A.THIELENMINWR515.313.91.407.467.2
D.MONTGOMERYCHIRB41513.71.317.52.30.5
H.RENFROWLVWR514.113.70.407.654.4
K.PITTSATLTE512.213.6-1.407.265
D.HOPKINSARIWR515.613.6206.884.6
R.GRONKOWSKITBTE319.513.65.906.762
S.BARKLEYNYGRB512.913.5-0.61143.8
S.SHEPARDNYGWR315.113.41.70.37.364.7
J.CHASECINWR519.713.36.40.27108.2
J.WADDLEMIAWR510.913.3-2.40.27.434.4
N.CHUBBCLERB516.613.23.418.61-1.4
Z.MOSSBUFRB414.513.21.311.82.50.5
A.MATTISONMINRB511.413-1.613.63.41.4
O.BECKHAMCLEWR37.613-5.40.76.3104.3
T.LOCKETTSEAWR516.4133.40794.2
A.COOPERDALWR516.212.83.406.872.6
M.SANDERSPHIRB510.112.7-2.69.83.8-10.2
J.JEUDYDENWR113.212.70.50783
G.KITTLESFTE410.712.6-1.90.37.349
E.SANDERSBUFWR515.212.52.70.26.299.2
M.GASKINMIARB512.812.50.36.85.2-1.2
J.WILLIAMSDETRB512.312.20.1113.20
M.GESICKIMIATE510.112.2-2.106.663.6
T.BOYDCINWR512.312.10.20745
M.GALLUPDALWR17.612-4.40742
C.BEASLEYBUFWR59.511.8-2.306.836.6
M.GORDONDENRB51211.80.2122.60.8
S.WATKINSBALWR59.411.8-2.406.485.2
A.BROWNTENWR47.311.8-4.50.36.387.3
T.HOCKENSONDETTE512.311.70.606.448.4
J.WILLIAMSDENRB59.411.6-2.211.22.41
D.MOONEYCHIWR59.411.6-2.20.26.264
C.HUBBARDCARRB58.411.5-3.111.233.8
D.SCHULTZDALTE514.411.52.906.235.6
M.VALDES-SCANTLINGGBWR36.511.4-4.905.3116.3
J.JONESTENWR310.811.3-0.50679.7
L.SHENAULTJAXWR59.411.2-1.80.6643.2
R.ANDERSONCARWR57.211.2-40.25.888.4
D.CHARKJAXWR48.611.2-2.605.598.8
N.FANTDENTE510.111.2-1.106.237
Z.PASCALINDWR511.311.10.205.638.8
M.HARDMANKCWR510.111.1-10.6643
M.INGRAMHOURB55.811.1-5.3140.84.6
D.HARRISNERB58.511-2.5131.62.2
J.CONNERARIRB511.5110.512.60.81
T.PATRICKDENWR512.8111.805.658.4
E.ENGRAMNYGTE36.311-4.70.35.345.7
H.RUGGSLVWR511.710.90.80.45.698.2
E.MITCHELLSFRB310.610.9-0.315.71.3-3.7
C.EDWARDS-HELAIREKCRB510.510.8-0.313.22-3.6
K.GOLLADAYNYGWR5910.8-1.805.880.4
D.SINGLETARYBUFRB58.910.7-1.8112.61.6
A.MILLERHOUWR26.710.6-3.905.537
P.BARBERLVRB38.810.6-1.812.71.76
C.CARSONSEARB41210.51.513.51.5-3.3
M.CARTERNYJRB58.810.5-1.79.62.80.8
A.GREENARIWR510.810.40.405.255.4
J.WHITENERB310.410.403.34.717
A.ROBINSONCHIWR58.210.3-2.105.847.4
J.SMITH-SCHUSTERPITWR5710.2-3.20.65.636.6
N.AGHOLORNEWR58.410.2-1.805.474.4
K.GAINWELLPHIRB51010.1-0.14.44.24.8
K.TONEYNYGWR59.810.1-0.30.45.439
K.OSBORNMINWR510.19.80.30.25.641.6
Z.ERTZPHITE57.29.8-2.60543.8
J.ROSSNYGWR29.59.6-0.104.584.5
A. ST. BROWNDETWR57.49.5-2.105.239.2
D.KNOXBUFTE514.89.55.304.845.2
T.POLLARDDALRB5129.42.610.42.4-4.4
J.MCKISSICWASRB59.19.4-0.33.63.69.2
R.MOOREARIWR511.89.32.51.24.814
J.COOKLACTE58.89.3-0.505.243.8
K.RAYMONDDETWR599.3-0.30.24.867
H.HENRYNETE510.79.31.405.243
Q.CEPHUSDETWR59.99.20.704.651.2
J.SMITHNETE56.78.9-2.20.44.619.2
J.REAGORPHIWR57.68.9-1.30.2541.8
D.SLAYTONNYGWR38.68.7-0.104.767.3
C.KIRKARIWR512.58.73.80.24.656.8
T.JOHNSONNYJRB55.38.7-3.45.22.615
K.DRAKELVRB56.58.7-2.24.83.613.6
T.CONKLINMINTE58.48.6-0.20520.4
N.HINESINDRB57.88.5-0.74.43.81
J.HASTYSFRB29.48.50.933-0.5
D.WILLIAMSCHIRB58.48.5-0.16.42.6-2.2
T.WILLIAMSBALRB498.40.682.36.5
V.JEFFERSONLAWR5108.31.704.465.4
D.BOOKERNYGRB46.98.3-1.45.81.8-2.5
J.MCNICHOLSTENRB58.68.20.41.44.60.8
B.EDWARDSLVWR57.38.2-0.904.467
B.BERRIOSNYJWR56.68.2-1.60.44.630.8
K.BOURNENEWR59.38.11.20.44.445.8
G.BERNARDTBRB49.681.614.32.3
M.CALLAWAYNOWR510.682.604.262.2
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINETENWR45.77.9-2.203.844.3
T.HIGBEELATE59.17.81.30418.8
J.O'SHAUGHNESSYJAXTE27.17.7-0.604.529.5
D.JOHNSONHOURB57.57.7-0.23.63.210.4
A.FIRKSERTENTE35.57.7-2.204.328.3
A.DILLONGBRB58.17.60.57.822
D.WILLIAMSKCRB56.77.6-0.95.421
P.WILLIAMSMIAWR25.57.4-1.90.5443.5
C.ROGERSTENWR57.67.30.30.2439
P.CAMPBELLINDWR457.2-2.20446
D.GOEDERTPHITE59.77.22.503.824
T.AUSTINJAXWR26.17-0.90431.5
L.MURRAYBALRB57.66.90.710.20.60.4
A.HUMPHRIESWASWR55.96.8-0.90423.6
L.THOMASWASTE48.46.71.703.526.3
S.MICHELLARB55.46.7-1.3910.4
R.COBBGBWR57.86.31.50.22.831.8
A.HOOPERCLETE55.76.3-0.603.214.2
Q.WATKINSPHIWR57.96.31.603.435
D.NJOKUCLETE59.26.32.903.434.4
B.AIYUKSFWR54.86.1-1.30.2328
J.DOYLEINDTE55.16.1-103.220
D.HARRISNOWR59.56.13.40.23.249.6
R.HIGGINSCLEWR56.360.303.243.4
T.SERMONSFRB45.55.8-0.37.80.80.3
M.WILLIAMSARITE58.35.82.503.418
B.BOLDENNERB54.85.8-11.42.80.6
M.ALIE-COXINDTE56.75.710326.8
J.LANDRYCLEWR210.75.65.10.537
F.SWAINSEAWR57.55.61.90.6323.4
A.COLLINSSEARB47.15.61.571.32
S.PERINECINRB55.45.5-0.14.41.82

WEEK 6 BUY-LOW

CHASE CLAYPOOL

When Diontae Johnson went down with an injury in Week 2, I wrote this about Chase Claypool:

Claypool’s biggest problem throughout his short career has been a lack of snaps. He only ran a route on 31 of Ben Roethlisberger‘s 42 pass attempts while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson ran 42 and 41 routes in Week 2, respectively.

Despite sitting on the bench for nearly 25% of passing attempts, Claypool still saw 9 targets and 194 air yards. If Diontae misses time, Claypool should start running routes on nearly 100% of passing plays, which would drastically increase his ceiling.

In the one game Johnson missed, Claypool played 92% of the snaps, caught 9 of 15 targets for 96 yards, and put up 25.7 expected fantasy points. He is going to be a bit more expensive now that JuJu is guaranteed to miss the entire season, but Claypool is once again locked into an every-down role.

Claypool only averaged a 67% snap rate in the three games he played with a healthy JuJu and Johnson, but he is still averaging 16.1 expected fantasy points per game, 17th-best among receivers. This number is almost guaranteed to increase with a bigger role, making Claypool significantly undervalued.

TERRY MCLAURIN

You’re probably not getting a massive discount, but Terry McLaurin is a receiver I am willing to pay up for on the trade market. He is averaging 10 targets and 118 air yards per game this season, and he currently ranks WR9 in expected fantasy points. McLaurin was quiet in Week 5, but his workload was even better than normal as he saw 11 targets and 163 air yards.

Managers should be comfortable holding after this performance, but it’s certainly possible that the allure of someone like Ja’Marr Chase could entice someone to move on from McLaurin. Chase is currently sitting at WR8 compared to McLaurin at WR14, but McLaurin’s additional 3 targets and 4.4 expected fantasy points give me confidence that McLaurin is more valuable for the rest of this season. These two players are right next to each other in the current FantasyPros ECR, but McLaurin is underrated due to his exceptional workload.

BRANDIN COOKS

Brandin Cooks is another receiver who disappointed in Week 5. However, his future outlook still looks bright. Cooks faced a tough matchup against Bill Belichick and the Patriots in Week 5, and Belichick is known for selling out to stop the opposing team’s top receiver.

Cooks saw a season-low five targets, but the offense finally showed signs of life as quarterback Davis Mills threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns. The low target share was likely due to Belichick’s scheme, as Cooks saw a 36.7% target share in the previous two games that Mills started. Starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor is getting closer to returning from a hamstring injury, which will help Cooks, but if Mills can avoid the disaster of his first two starts moving forward, Cooks will see more opportunities to produce in the meantime.

WEEK 6 SELL-HIGH

DAMIEN WILLIAMS

Damien Williams was solid in place of David Montgomery in Week 5. On the surface, 16 carries, three targets, and 17.0 expected fantasy points seem like numbers you can rely on as long as Montgomery misses time. However, teammate Khalil Herbert out-snapped Williams 34 to 31, and led the team with 18 carries.

The Bears led the Lions for most of the game, so Williams still saw plenty of opportunities despite splitting touches. However, the Bears have to play the Packers and Bucs next, two games where they are likely to have to play from behind. If Herbert continues to steal touches, Williams probably won’t see enough volume to be relevant in the next two games. Your league-mates won’t know about the split backfield just by looking at Williams’ numbers, so see if you can capitalize on his solid numbers and ship him to an RB-needy team for a different piece.

DAWSON KNOX

Dawson Knox finished as the TE4 in Week 5 mainly due to a long touchdown and also sits at TE4 in PPR on the season. His production has mainly come in the form of touchdowns. He leads all tight ends with five scores on the season.

Even though Knox has posted excellent results, he is only averaging 4.8 targets per game, which is 16th at the position. To his credit, his targets have been relatively high-value, and four of them have come inside the 10-yard line. Knox has scored on two of these four targets, but all of his targets still only add up to about 2.5 expected touchdowns on the season. Regression is likely coming in the touchdown department, and Knox is behind Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley in the target pecking order. Unless he can significantly increase his target volume, Knox’s current numbers are unsustainable.

FINAL THOUGHTS

That’s all I have for Week 5. Now that you’re an Expected Fantasy Points Expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check out my trade value chart, which also incorporates expected fantasy points data, and check back next week for more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.