Fantasy Football Week 3 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021) - Roto Street Journal
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Fantasy Football Week 3 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021)

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially show what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume, but underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 2.

Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The download links have data broken out for Week 1 and Week 2 individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.

PlayerTMPOSGPPR
AVG
XFP
AVG
DIF
AVG
CAR
AVG
TGT
AVG
AIR
YDS
AVG
C.MCCAFFREYCARRB226.228-1.822.57.59
D.HENRYTENRB229.227.51.72759
D.WALLERLVTE21923.8-4.8013134.5
J.TAYLORINDRB21222-10164-4.5
C.LAMBDALWR220.421.8-1.40.512110
M.WILLIAMSLACWR222.221.11.1011102
S.DIGGSBUFWR21621-5011129
B.COOKSHOUWR220.520.7-0.2010.5151.5
D.COOKMINRB218.620.2-1.621.55-7
D.JOHNSONPITWR217.120.1-301191.5
M.JONESJAXWR218.119.9-1.8010139.5
C.KUPPLAWR230.319.610.70.510.581
A.COOPERDALWR222.219.62.6010.585
K.ALLENLACWR216.919.5-2.6010.5110.5
M.INGRAMHOURB29.819-9.2201.512.5
J.MIXONCINRB216.618.9-2.324.530.5
D.SWIFTDETRB218.118.6-0.5108-2.5
A.KAMARANORB212.618.5-5.91451
D.MOORECARWR218.718.10.60.5989.5
D.SAMUELSFWR22418611074
T.HILLKCWR221.5183.519.5124
C.GODWINTBWR219.9181.909.582
M.DAVISATLRB211.818-6.2126.5-7
T.HOCKENSONDETTE223.217.85.409.569
S.SHEPARDNYGWR220.917.63.30.59.589
J.JEFFERSONMINWR215.517.3-1.809.5118.5
A.JONESGBRB222.917.25.7124-2
A.EKELERLACRB217.117.2-0.112.54.55
C.RIDLEYATLWR214.717.1-2.40999
D.CHARKJAXWR210.316.7-6.408148.5
D.HENDERSONLARB216.516.6-0.114.53-1
M.SANDERSPHIRB212.116.2-4.114.53.5-2
M.EVANSTBWR21516.1-1.107.5103.5
A.BROWNTENWR211.116-4.908.5127.5
T.MCLAURINWASWR21915.93.10976
D.HARRISNERB212.615.7-3.119.523.5
A.THIELENMINWR223.115.67.508.550.5
M.BROWNBALWR221.415.65.80.5894
B.BERRIOSNYJWR212.215.5-3.30959
J.WILLIAMSDETRB215.915.40.5862
T.LOCKETTSEAWR228.915.213.708135
N.HARRISPITRB212.515.2-2.71342.5
Q.CEPHUSDETWR214.315.1-0.80789
M.PITTMANINDWR213.115-1.90888.5
L.FOURNETTETBRB211.315-3.7105.5-5
D.MONTGOMERYCHIRB214.914.9018.52.5-0.5
D.ADAMSGBWR215.414.80.60878.5
H.RENFROWLVWR211.914.8-2.90861.5
C.SUTTONDENWR213.714.7-107.5154.5
T.HIGGINSCINWR215.914.61.307.569
D.METCALFSEAWR213.714.5-0.80887
C.BEASLEYBUFWR210.814.5-3.708.544.5
D.PARKERMIAWR210.714.4-3.70889
J.WHITENERB215.314.314.56.513.5
D.SINGLETARYBUFRB214.114.2-0.11247.5
D.MOONEYCHIWR210.114.2-4.107.564.5
R.WOODSLAWR212.214-1.81.56.559
D.SMITHPHIWR211.414-2.607.5112
C.CLAYPOOLPITWR29.913.9-417127.5
A.GIBSONWASRB210.613.9-3.316.53.51.5
L.SHENAULTJAXWR27.313.9-6.61833
R.GRONKOWSKITBTE224.513.710.806.550
J.SMITH-SCHUSTERPITWR212.813.6-0.80.57.533.5
A.ROBINSONCHIWR21013.4-3.407.550.5
K.GOLLADAYNYGWR28.613.4-4.807106.5
E.SANDERSBUFWR2813.4-5.407121.5
J.JONESTENWR212.413.3-0.90792
S.WATKINSBALWR21113.3-2.307.579.5
T.KELCEKCTE224.813.211.607.541.5
J.MEYERSNEWR29.113.2-4.107.557
M.VALDES-SCANTLINGGBWR22.413.1-10.706134
K.OSBORNMINWR217.4134.407.559
J.WADDLEMIAWR212.513-0.50742.5
E.MOORENYJWR24.712.9-8.206107.5
K.DRAKELVRB211.312.8-1.56.55.513
J.JEUDYDENWR113.212.70.50783
C.EDMONDSARIRB213.612.61104.52.5
C.CARSONSEARB213.912.51.414.51.5-1.5
K.PITTSATLTE29.712.5-2.80750.5
E.ELLIOTTDALRB211.812.4-0.613.520.5
N.FANTDENTE212.812.40.40739.5
C.DAVISNYJWR214.812.32.50694
E.MITCHELLSFRB211.912.2-0.318.51-4
D.SLAYTONNYGWR21212.2-0.206.597.5
C.PATTERSONATLRB216.312.14.2743
A.GREENARIWR2912.1-3.10652.5
M.GALLUPDALWR17.612-4.40742
N.CHUBBCLERB219.511.97.6141.5-4.5
R.MOOREARIWR217.611.95.706.526.5
J.COOKLACTE28.211.8-3.606.550.5
S.BARKLEYNYGRB26.311.8-5.511.532.5
D.HOPKINSARIWR220.911.79.20665.5
T.WILLIAMSBALRB214.911.73.211.531.5
J.DOYLEINDTE29.311.7-2.40630
M.GASKINMIARB210.611.6-175-2
H.RUGGSLVWR214.611.53.10.5689
K.HUNTCLERB211.711.40.31020
J.ROBINSONJAXRB28.911.3-2.484.55
T.BOYDCINWR210.311-0.706.532
J.CHASECINWR217.210.86.40.55.598
K.GAINWELLPHIRB29.810.8-183-3
N.HINESINDRB28.710.5-1.8552
J.JACOBSLVRB11710.46.61028
T.POLLARDDALRB215.710.25.583.5-9
M.GORDONDENRB214.910.24.7122.54
A.BROWNTBWR213.210.13.10.55103.5
C.EDWARDS-HELAIREKCRB26.410.1-3.7141.5-2
Z.PASCALINDWR217.6107.605.534.5
M.HARDMANKCWR27.710-2.305.566.5
C.ROGERSTENWR27.29.8-2.605.554.5
J.REAGORPHIWR29.79.7005.549
D.BROWNWASWR23.69.2-5.60563
N.AGHOLORNEWR211.79.12.60542
M.ANDREWSBALTE27.99.1-1.20534
L.THOMASWASTE210.88.91.90543
R.ANDERSONCARWR29.88.90.904.594.5
M.CARTERNYJRB26.98.8-1.982.52.5
T.MARSHALLCARWR25.28.8-3.604.525.5
C.KIRKARIWR216.88.78.104.577.5
J.SMITHNETE28.38.7-0.40.5512.5
J.WILLIAMSDENRB26.88.6-1.813.51-5.5
R.GAGEATLWR23.98.6-4.704.59
J.HASTYSFRB29.48.50.933-0.5
D.WILLIAMSCHIRB25.28.5-3.3440.5
A.HUMPHRIESWASWR27.28.3-1.10514
T.PATRICKDENWR213.38.25.10431
J.MCKISSICWASRB210.68.12.52.53.515
A. ST. BROWNDETWR24.68-3.404.548.5
T.BENSONDETWR24.28-3.804.545.5
D.NJOKUCLETE27.27.8-0.60465.5
D.JOHNSONHOURB29.37.71.64.531.5
J.O'SHAUGHNESSYJAXTE27.17.7-0.604.529.5
T.JOHNSONNYJRB24.37.7-3.481.514.5
S.AHMEDMIARB23.37.6-4.34.5319
B.EDWARDSLVWR29.67.52.10460
G.KITTLESFTE27.87.40.404.511
A.HOOPERCLETE27.47.20.20416.5
M.GESICKIMIATE23.67.2-3.60446
B.JARWINDALTE25.97-1.10424.5
J.JOHNSONNOTE210.26.93.30331.5
K.HAMLERDENWR24.36.9-2.603.570
J.CONNERARIRB246.8-2.81200
A.OKWUEGBUNAMDENTE27.56.70.803.55.5
T.CONKLINMINTE25.86.7-0.90419
J.MCNICHOLSTENRB26.16.7-0.61.53.59.5
C.KMETCHITE25.16.7-1.60415.5
R.GRIFFINNYJTE24.16.7-2.60415
T.HIGBEELATE26.86.60.203.516.5
D.SCHULTZDALTE27.26.60.60411.5
J.GUYTONLACWR26.16.6-0.50.53.515
A.SCHWARTZCLEWR25.86.5-0.71371
M.GOODWINCHIWR25.26.5-1.30.53.529
K.RUDOLPHNYGTE23.76.5-2.803.528.5
P.LINDSAYHOURB296.42.66.51-3.5
D.GOEDERTPHITE29.36.3303.520
H.HENRYNETE26.26.3-0.103.531
C.HYDEJAXRB24.36.3-2623
D.KNOXBUFTE28.96.22.703.518
T.SHERFIELDSFWR26.16.100332
D.ARNOLDCARTE25.66.1-0.503.531
R.TONYANGBTE28.562.503.58.5
V.JEFFERSONLAWR29.25.93.30360.5
T.KROFTNYJTE23.75.9-2.203.515.5
L.MURRAYBALRB29.25.83.41000
K.RAYMONDDETWR26.45.70.70.5331
J.LANDRYCLEWR210.75.65.10.537
D.ROBINSONKCWR27.85.62.20344
P.BROWNHOUTE25.45.400335
M.CALLAWAYNOWR22.65.4-2.80332
D.AMENDOLAHOUWR28.25.32.90312
K.BOURNENEWR23.75.3-1.60.5313
H.BRYANTCLETE25.85.20.60325
R.JONESTBRB225.2-3.25.51.50.5
A.TRAUTMANNOTE22.45.1-2.70315.5
T.JONESNORB23.54.7-1.270.50
A.DILLONGBRB23.64.7-1.14.51.53
Q.WATKINSPHIWR29.54.5502.526
C.WILSONDALWR254.40.60.52.511
G.BERNARDTBRB23.44.2-0.802.510
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINETENWR21.83.7-1.901.522
C.HUBBARDCARRB21.73.6-1.9410
T.COLEMANNYJRB22.43.5-1.1700
L.ROUNTREELACRB21.83.3-1.550.5-0.5
J.JACKSONLACRB22.83.1-0.3310
D.BOOKERNYGRB22.23.1-0.9311
S.MICHELLARB22.42.8-0.45.500
A.MATTISONMINRB22.72.7021-2.5

WEEK 3 BUY-LOW

SAQUON BARKLEY

Here is The Wolf’s fantasy philosophy from his excellent 2021 Investing Guide, which I completely agree with:

I’m 100% an upside chaser. Always have been, and the great Scott Barrett explains clearly why that’s the right philosophy here.

To sum up his research: every fantasy season boils down to a small handful of “League-Winners,” and the rest simply don’t matter. If you owned Christian McCaffrey in 2019, you had a 48% chance of making your championship, regardless of who you surrounded him with. Insanity.

While frustrating for “analysts” (addicts) like myself who pour 12+ hours a day researching hundreds of players, perhaps you’ll be comforted knowing your job is unearthing only 2-3 true game-changers.

Thus, every one of your 15-20 “at bats” should be homerun hacks at finding these guys.

The goal of fantasy football is to win championships and to do that, you need players with league-winning upside. Saquon finished as the overall RB1 as a rookie and still has the upside to win leagues this season.

Barkley has gotten off to a slow start in 2021, but I have a few reasons for optimism. First, Barkley is still dominating the running back touches and snaps for the Giants. He played 84% of the snaps Thursday and received 13 of the 17 running back carries, and three of four running back targets. The Giants still clearly want to use him as a bell cow.

In addition to the promising workload, Saquon was never expected to be at 100% strength in Week 1. Dr. David Chao, former Chargers head team doctor, had this to say a few months ago:

Admittedly, Saquon will get stronger as the season progresses. He will need to work his way into full form, but I expect a very productive season from him. The Giants have also signed him to the 5th year option, which shows confidence in his knee.

No new injury concerns have popped up for Saquon, and his health is still on track to improve during the season. He should be at his strongest in the fantasy playoffs when managers need him the most.

Finally, the Giants started 2021 with a brutal schedule, playing the stout Denver defense in Week 1, then traveling to Washington on a short week to face a defensive line featuring four 1st-round picks.

Despite that schedule, Daniel Jones looks like he may have taken a step forward, as he currently has the second-highest PFF passing grade in the NFL behind only Tom Brady. The Giants looked solid on offense in Week 2 despite losing a heartbreaker, and a more efficient passing game should lead to more scoring opportunities for Barkley.

Saquon comes with risk, but he still has a path to league-winning upside due to his elite workload and talent. He should get stronger as the season goes on, so look for him to take advantage of an easier schedule in a potentially improved Giants offense.

A.J. BROWN

Brown put up a pedestrian 7.3 PPR fantasy points in Week 2, but he is primed to bounce back. He saw plenty of volume with 9 targets and 172 air yards but uncharacteristically dropped four passes. The targets were worth an expected 17.4 points. If Brown could have hauled in a few of the drops, his final line would have looked much better.

Brown is an elite talent and finished the 2020 season behind only Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson in PFF receiving grade. He will bounce back from a fluky poor performance in Week 2, so send out an offer if his manager in your league is concern about his production so far.

CHASE CLAYPOOL

Like Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown, I am betting on Chase Claypool due to his talent and upside. He earned the highest PFF grade of any Steelers offensive player in 2020. As a Steelers fan, I agree that he is the most talented receiver on the team.

Claypool’s biggest problem throughout his short career has been a lack of snaps. He only ran a route on 31 of Ben Roethlisberger‘s 42 pass attempts while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson ran 42 and 41 routes in Week 2, respectively.

Despite sitting on the bench for nearly 25% of passing attempts, Claypool still saw 9 targets and 194 air yards.

Unfortunately, Johnson was injured on the final play of Week 2 and could be looking at a multiweek absence. Head coach Mike Tomlin said, “He’s looking better, but not to be confused with great.” Johnson himself posted a cryptic photo on Instagram, suggesting a possible absence.

If Diontae misses time, Claypool should start running routes on nearly 100% of passing plays, which would drastically increase his ceiling. Even though Johnson is probably not out for the season, I am willing to bet that once given a bigger role, Claypool’s talent will force the coaching staff to keep him on the field even when all players are healthy.

Claypool comes with risk, but he shouldn’t be too expensive to acquire after a slow start to the season. He nearly brought in a long touchdown in Week 2 that would have bumped up his final numbers, but the corner made a great play on a slightly underthrown ball.

Don’t be afraid to send out an offer and bet on Claypool’s upside this season.

WEEK 3 SELL-HIGH

ROB GRONKOWSKI

Gronk is currently the TE2 overall in PPR, sitting only 0.6 total points behind Travis Kelce. Gronk’s league-leading four receiving touchdowns are the main reason for this ranking. He is a solid red zone threat, but his current touchdown rate is unsustainable.

While Gronk’s 6.5 average targets per game look pretty good on the surface, he might struggle to maintain that number going forward. In Week 2, he only ran a route on 25 of Tom Brady‘s 40 pass attempts. That 62.5% route rate is significantly lower than his route rate in Week 1 and will be something to monitor closely in Week 3.

Gronk’s name value and red zone prowess in the first two weeks might induce someone in your league to overpay for him. I would look to include him in a package for someone like Mark Andrews who has struggled this year but is running more routes in an offense with less competition for targets.

HENRY RUGGS III

Henry Ruggs III doesn’t have the same value as the other players on this list, but he is especially relevant in deeper leagues and dynasty leagues. Ruggs put up an impressive final stat line in Week 2, catching 5 of 7 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown.

Ruggs hauled in a 61-yard touchdown grab to seal the game on a deep post route, and on the surface, looked like the number two option for the Raiders after Darren Waller. He out-targeted teammate Bryan Edwards seven to three, but Edwards had two targets nullified by penalties, including a touchdown. Edwards also played more snaps (49 to 44) and ran more routes (34 to 30) than Ruggs. The pecking order behind Waller is still uncertain, so I would try to sell Ruggs to someone who believes he is firmly in front of Edwards after Week 2.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Other than Gronk, there aren’t a lot of top guys I’m actively looking to sell this week.

Tyler LockettTravis KelceCooper Kupp, and DeAndre Hopkins, are all overachieving their XFP numbers mostly due to good touchdown luck. While none of them will continue their current touchdown pace, they all project to have solid target shares the rest of the season, so they should be fine even after some touchdown regression hits. But if someone makes you a monster offer for any of these guys, I would at least listen.

That’s all I have for Week 3. Now that you’re an Expected Fantasy Points Expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check back next week for an updated trade value chart and more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

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