Each week, I’ll be expanding on the DraftKings Millionaire Maker analysis provided by Adam Levitan here and The Wolf here. I encourage you to look at those articles first, if you haven’t already.
Breakdowns of trends in lineup structure for particular weeks can be found on the subreddit r/dfsports, and every week linestarapp.com gives you the highest possible scoring Millionaire lineup. Visit the latter to remind you how absurd this game can be, like how you should’ve stacked the Lions in week 1, and how Maxx Williams was apparently the tight end to roll out in week 2.
In this series, I’ll be looking at trends that DFS players track, diving into the skill/luck dichotomy, and more.
WINNING STRATEGY
Won $1 MILLION ✅
Scored a seat to the #DKChampSeries Tournament of Champions ✅Three players took down this Sunday's millionaire contests.
$4.25M Standings: https://t.co/ZkZIJlKIW3
$3M Standings: https://t.co/iuXq5spB9H
$2.12M Standings: https://t.co/6MB2AVrLq8 pic.twitter.com/YY23rdQctx— DraftKings (@DraftKings) October 4, 2021
This week’s large-pool Millionaire belongs to ‘jzinser’
Dak Prescott — $6700
Saquon Barkley — $6700
Cordarrelle Patterson — $4900
Deebo Samuel — $6500
DJ Moore — $6600
Corey Davis — $5000
Dalton Schultz — $4300
David Montgomery — $5800
Bills DEF — $4300
- Stack: Single-stack (QB-TE), run-it-back (WR). First single stack of the year, there has been a run-it-back now in weeks 3 and 4. The combo cost $17,600, 35.2% of the cap ($5867 per player)
- Salary used: $49,900 out of $50G
- Stacking using Vegas’ 4th-highest over/under (CAR at DAL, O/U 51.5)
- At $6700, Dak is the third-highest priced QB this year, with only Joe Burrow ($5800, week 1) lower
- Saquon Barkley ($6700) is just the second of nine winning-lineup RBs to cost more than $6200
- At 88.6-percent, this lineup’s total ownership is the highest of the winners through four weeks. Remember, the recommended range is 75-125%
- This is the first lineup with a non-WR in the flex
This is the highest-scoring winner so far, as the other three weeks were between 222 and 233 points.
THE SKILL
It seems that during most weeks, Tyreek Hill ($8000, 50.6 pts) had enough production to monopolize top lineups. There were enough high-scoring players this week that Tyreek wasn’t necessary to win the million.
Cordarrelle Patterson made his way onto the top four lineups. A 6.7% ownership was a little surprising to me considering his upside at a sub-5k price, and the Washington Football Team’s poor showing against the Bills and Giants the past couple of weeks. Even without his three TDs, Patterson would have out-produced his price tag with 16.6 DK points.
Saquon was looking like his old self and a case could be made that he’s seen his lowest price tag the rest of the season.
Draftkings (and my dynasty team) must be expecting Brandon Aiyuk to emerge at some point, but Deebo Samuel once again played like an alpha in an opportunistic matchup against the Seahawks.
Zach Wilson and Corey Davis had a bad Titans pass defense to restore their connection, at a great value of only 5k.
The Bills defense’s price tag surely scared off some, but, sometimes you just gotta drop some cash, especially with the added bad weather factor, when Davis Mills was already projected to struggle.
It may seem weird, but a receiver-less Cowboys stack had some merit this week. With an improving defense, Dallas has shown the ability to succeed without airing it out so much. Pairing Dak with Dalton Schultz could have fallen victim to recency bias, but Schultz came through once again. It’s hard to imagine he can keep this up consistently, but when the drop-off will happen is above my paygrade.
THE LUCK
Cordarrelle belongs in the skill category more than here, but he has to see a name drop here too for seeing the endzone on an absurd 27-percent of his touches.
The Dak-Schultz stack is another thing that has its place in the skill category, but what gives it a stroke of luck is the price tag of Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb. At $6000 at $6700 respectively, they were in a good spot to out-produce their cost in a game that out-scored their total points over/under (51.5) by 12.5 points (64).
NOTABLE HIGHER-SCORING ALTERNATIVE
Stacking DJ Moore with Sam Darnold while keeping a Dalton Schultz runback would have been $700 cheaper but scored 9.52 more points. And then Darnold’s two rushing TDs would fall firmly in the luck category.
