I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).
XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.
The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume, but are underperforming due to bad luck.
For tips on negotiating trades, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.
Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 3.
Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The download links have data broken out for Weeks 1, 2, and 3 individually.
Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.
| Player | TM | POS | G | PPR AVG | XFP AVG | DIF AVG | CAR AVG | TGT AVG | AIR YDS AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.HENRY | TEN | RB | 3 | 25.9 | 26 | -0.1 | 27.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| N.HARRIS | PIT | RB | 3 | 17.7 | 23.6 | -5.8 | 14 | 9 | 2 |
| D.ADAMS | GB | WR | 3 | 20.6 | 21.7 | -1.1 | 0 | 11.3 | 136.7 |
| C.KUPP | LA | WR | 3 | 30.4 | 21 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 11 | 89.7 |
| C.MCCAFFREY | CAR | RB | 3 | 19.5 | 20.9 | -1.4 | 17.3 | 5.7 | 4 |
| B.COOKS | HOU | WR | 3 | 20.6 | 20.7 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 142.7 |
| D.SWIFT | DET | RB | 3 | 20 | 20.6 | -0.7 | 11.7 | 7.7 | -6 |
| K.ALLEN | LAC | WR | 3 | 17.6 | 20.6 | -3 | 0 | 11 | 91.3 |
| D.COOK | MIN | RB | 2 | 18.6 | 20.2 | -1.6 | 21.5 | 5 | -7 |
| S.DIGGS | BUF | WR | 3 | 14.7 | 20.2 | -5.5 | 0 | 10.7 | 136.3 |
| M.WILLIAMS | LAC | WR | 3 | 25.8 | 20.1 | 5.7 | 0 | 10.3 | 95.7 |
| D.JOHNSON | PIT | WR | 2 | 17.1 | 20.1 | -3 | 0 | 11 | 91.5 |
| D.WALLER | LV | TE | 3 | 16.1 | 20 | -3.9 | 0 | 11 | 116.7 |
| D.MOORE | CAR | WR | 3 | 19.3 | 19.5 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 10 | 110 |
| A.KAMARA | NO | RB | 3 | 15.3 | 18.8 | -3.5 | 17.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 |
| C.RIDLEY | ATL | WR | 3 | 14.5 | 18.8 | -4.3 | 0 | 9.7 | 85 |
| J.JEFFERSON | MIN | WR | 3 | 19.3 | 18.7 | 0.6 | 0 | 10 | 107.3 |
| D.SAMUEL | SF | WR | 3 | 19.4 | 18.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 10 | 69.7 |
| M.JONES | JAX | WR | 3 | 16.1 | 18 | -1.8 | 0 | 9.3 | 113 |
| J.TAYLOR | IND | RB | 3 | 10.7 | 17.9 | -7.2 | 14 | 3.7 | -7.7 |
| C.CLAYPOOL | PIT | WR | 3 | 12.8 | 17.9 | -5.1 | 0.7 | 9.7 | 121 |
| C.BEASLEY | BUF | WR | 3 | 14.1 | 17.5 | -3.4 | 0 | 10 | 55.7 |
| M.PITTMAN | IND | WR | 3 | 13.2 | 17.5 | -4.3 | 0.3 | 9.3 | 100.7 |
| J.MEYERS | NE | WR | 3 | 12.2 | 17.3 | -5.1 | 0 | 9.7 | 95.7 |
| M.DAVIS | ATL | RB | 3 | 11.5 | 17.2 | -5.7 | 12.3 | 5.7 | -8 |
| C.LAMB | DAL | WR | 3 | 16.8 | 17.1 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 91.7 |
| M.EVANS | TB | WR | 3 | 16.2 | 16.9 | -0.8 | 0 | 8.3 | 114 |
| A.EKELER | LAC | RB | 3 | 19 | 16.8 | 2.2 | 12 | 5 | 2.7 |
| C.GODWIN | TB | WR | 3 | 19.8 | 16.8 | 3 | 0.3 | 8.7 | 66.3 |
| A.JONES | GB | RB | 3 | 21.1 | 16.8 | 4.3 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -2.3 |
| D.HENDERSON | LA | RB | 2 | 16.5 | 16.6 | -0.2 | 14.5 | 3 | -1 |
| T.HILL | KC | WR | 3 | 17.6 | 16.4 | 1.1 | 1 | 8.7 | 111.3 |
| J.MIXON | CIN | RB | 3 | 14.5 | 16.3 | -1.8 | 22.7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| A.THIELEN | MIN | WR | 3 | 21 | 16.2 | 4.8 | 0 | 8.7 | 53.3 |
| J.WADDLE | MIA | WR | 3 | 14.2 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 0 | 9 | 41.7 |
| A.COOPER | DAL | WR | 3 | 16.6 | 15.5 | 1.1 | 0 | 8.3 | 70.3 |
| T.KELCE | KC | TE | 3 | 22.3 | 15.5 | 6.8 | 0 | 8.7 | 75.3 |
| D.METCALF | SEA | WR | 3 | 16.7 | 15.4 | 1.3 | 0 | 8.3 | 106 |
| T.MCLAURIN | WAS | WR | 3 | 16 | 15.4 | 0.6 | 0 | 8.3 | 70 |
| E.ELLIOTT | DAL | RB | 3 | 16.7 | 15.4 | 1.4 | 15.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| C.EDMONDS | ARI | RB | 3 | 13.9 | 15.4 | -1.5 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 |
| S.BARKLEY | NYG | RB | 3 | 11.3 | 15.3 | -4 | 13.3 | 4.3 | -4 |
| M.BROWN | BAL | WR | 3 | 17 | 15.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 7.7 | 116.3 |
| D.CHARK | JAX | WR | 3 | 11.5 | 15 | -3.5 | 0 | 7.3 | 131.7 |
| T.HIGGINS | CIN | WR | 2 | 15.9 | 14.6 | 1.3 | 0 | 7.5 | 69 |
| M.INGRAM | HOU | RB | 3 | 7.5 | 14.5 | -7 | 16 | 1.3 | 7.7 |
| J.WILLIAMS | DET | RB | 3 | 15.5 | 14.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 0.3 |
| J.ROBINSON | JAX | RB | 3 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 0.2 | 10.3 | 5 | 5 |
| C.DAVIS | NYJ | WR | 3 | 12.9 | 14.2 | -1.3 | 0 | 7.3 | 98.7 |
| D.PARKER | MIA | WR | 3 | 9.8 | 14 | -4.2 | 0 | 7.7 | 99.7 |
| D.MONTGOMERY | CHI | RB | 3 | 12.4 | 13.9 | -1.5 | 15.7 | 3 | 0.7 |
| R.GRONKOWSKI | TB | TE | 3 | 19.5 | 13.6 | 5.9 | 0 | 6.7 | 62 |
| S.WATKINS | BAL | WR | 3 | 10.9 | 13.6 | -2.6 | 0 | 7.3 | 100.3 |
| H.RENFROW | LV | WR | 3 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 0.6 | 0 | 7.3 | 60 |
| E.SANDERS | BUF | WR | 3 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 0.7 | 0 | 6.7 | 112.7 |
| S.SHEPARD | NYG | WR | 3 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 64.7 |
| M.SANDERS | PHI | RB | 3 | 10.9 | 13.3 | -2.4 | 10.3 | 3.7 | -7 |
| K.DRAKE | LV | RB | 3 | 10.4 | 13.3 | -2.9 | 7 | 5.7 | 15.7 |
| A.GIBSON | WAS | RB | 3 | 12.8 | 13.3 | -0.4 | 15.3 | 3 | 0 |
| C.SUTTON | DEN | WR | 3 | 12 | 13.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 6.7 | 111.7 |
| K.HUNT | CLE | RB | 3 | 17 | 13.1 | 3.8 | 10.3 | 3.7 | -2 |
| R.WOODS | LA | WR | 3 | 10.4 | 13.1 | -2.7 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 59 |
| M.GORDON | DEN | RB | 3 | 15 | 13.1 | 1.9 | 14 | 2.3 | -0.7 |
| M.GASKIN | MIA | RB | 3 | 10.5 | 13 | -2.5 | 9 | 5.3 | -3.7 |
| D.SMITH | PHI | WR | 3 | 9.5 | 13 | -3.5 | 0 | 7 | 100.3 |
| T.HOCKENSON | DET | TE | 3 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 3.5 | 0 | 7 | 48.7 |
| C.PATTERSON | ATL | RB | 3 | 16.3 | 12.9 | 3.3 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| D.SINGLETARY | BUF | RB | 3 | 10.6 | 12.9 | -2.3 | 11.7 | 3.3 | 4.7 |
| J.WILLIAMS | DEN | RB | 3 | 8.9 | 12.9 | -4 | 13.3 | 2 | -2.3 |
| J.JEUDY | DEN | WR | 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 0.5 | 0 | 7 | 83 |
| D.HARRIS | NE | RB | 3 | 9.4 | 12.5 | -3.1 | 15 | 2 | 1.3 |
| T.LOCKETT | SEA | WR | 3 | 21.6 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 0 | 6.7 | 94.3 |
| L.FOURNETTE | TB | RB | 3 | 9.6 | 12.3 | -2.7 | 8 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| H.RUGGS | LV | WR | 3 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 103 |
| A.ROBINSON | CHI | WR | 3 | 8.2 | 12.3 | -4.1 | 0 | 7 | 46.7 |
| E.MITCHELL | SF | RB | 2 | 11.9 | 12.2 | -0.4 | 18.5 | 1 | -4 |
| B.BERRIOS | NYJ | WR | 3 | 9.7 | 12.2 | -2.5 | 0 | 7 | 54.7 |
| A.BROWN | TEN | WR | 3 | 7.5 | 12.1 | -4.6 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 96.3 |
| M.GALLUP | DAL | WR | 1 | 7.6 | 12 | -4.4 | 0 | 7 | 42 |
| E.MOORE | NYJ | WR | 3 | 4.9 | 12 | -7.1 | 0 | 6 | 81.7 |
| A.GREEN | ARI | WR | 3 | 11.4 | 11.9 | -0.5 | 0 | 6 | 70.3 |
| K.GOLLADAY | NYG | WR | 3 | 9.2 | 11.9 | -2.7 | 0 | 6.3 | 88.3 |
| Z.PASCAL | IND | WR | 3 | 13.4 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 0 | 6 | 46.3 |
| N.CHUBB | CLE | RB | 3 | 15.8 | 11.8 | 4 | 17 | 1 | -3 |
| D.MOONEY | CHI | WR | 3 | 7.4 | 11.8 | -4.4 | 0 | 6.3 | 52.7 |
| M.GESICKI | MIA | TE | 3 | 8.6 | 11.8 | -3.2 | 0 | 6.7 | 63.3 |
| N.HINES | IND | RB | 3 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| A.MATTISON | MIN | RB | 3 | 9.5 | 11.6 | -2.1 | 10.3 | 3.3 | -2.3 |
| L.SHENAULT | JAX | WR | 3 | 7.8 | 11.5 | -3.7 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 30.7 |
| M.VALDES-SCANTLING | GB | WR | 3 | 6.5 | 11.4 | -4.9 | 0 | 5.3 | 116.3 |
| N.AGHOLOR | NE | WR | 3 | 9 | 11.4 | -2.4 | 0 | 6 | 88 |
| C.CARSON | SEA | RB | 3 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 13.7 | 1.7 | -2.7 |
| J.JONES | TEN | WR | 3 | 10.8 | 11.3 | -0.5 | 0 | 6 | 79.7 |
| J.SMITH-SCHUSTER | PIT | WR | 3 | 10.4 | 11.3 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 25.7 |
| J.REAGOR | PHI | WR | 3 | 9.9 | 11.2 | -1.3 | 0 | 6.3 | 60.7 |
| D.HOPKINS | ARI | WR | 3 | 15.6 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 0 | 6 | 55.7 |
| T.BOYD | CIN | WR | 3 | 11.4 | 11 | 0.4 | 0 | 6.3 | 43.3 |
| C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE | KC | RB | 3 | 9.9 | 10.9 | -1 | 15 | 1.7 | -3 |
| C.KIRK | ARI | WR | 3 | 17 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 0 | 5.7 | 88.3 |
| Q.CEPHUS | DET | WR | 3 | 10.1 | 10.6 | -0.5 | 0 | 5 | 60.7 |
| M.ANDREWS | BAL | TE | 3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | 63.3 |
| J.JACOBS | LV | RB | 1 | 17 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 10 | 2 | 8 |
| P.BARBER | LV | RB | 3 | 8.8 | 10.4 | -1.6 | 12.3 | 1.7 | 6 |
| J.CHASE | CIN | WR | 3 | 18.9 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 88 |
| G.KITTLE | SF | TE | 3 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 6 | 34.7 |
| J.WHITE | NE | RB | 3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 17 |
| K.PITTS | ATL | TE | 3 | 8.3 | 10.4 | -2.1 | 0 | 5.7 | 44.3 |
| A.BROWN | TB | WR | 2 | 13.2 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 5 | 103.5 |
| N.FANT | DEN | TE | 3 | 9.7 | 10.1 | -0.4 | 0 | 5.7 | 34 |
| K.OSBORN | MIN | WR | 3 | 13.1 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 0 | 5.7 | 43 |
| K.RAYMOND | DET | WR | 3 | 8.5 | 9.7 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 57 |
| R.MOORE | ARI | WR | 3 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 5 | 14.3 |
| J.COOK | LAC | TE | 3 | 7 | 9.6 | -2.6 | 0 | 5.3 | 40.7 |
| J.SMITH | NE | TE | 3 | 6 | 9.4 | -3.4 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 25 |
| K.GAINWELL | PHI | RB | 3 | 8.6 | 9.4 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | -6.3 |
| T.CONKLIN | MIN | TE | 3 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 0 | 5.3 | 24.7 |
| T.WILLIAMS | BAL | RB | 3 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 7 |
| M.HARDMAN | KC | WR | 3 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 5 | 43.3 |
| T.POLLARD | DAL | RB | 3 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 9 | 2.7 | -7 |
| J.DOYLE | IND | TE | 3 | 6.8 | 9 | -2.1 | 0 | 4.7 | 24 |
| M.CARTER | NYJ | RB | 3 | 6.2 | 9 | -2.7 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| L.THOMAS | WAS | TE | 3 | 11.2 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | 4.7 | 35 |
| T.MARSHALL | CAR | WR | 3 | 6.4 | 8.9 | -2.6 | 0 | 4.7 | 28 |
| G.BERNARD | TB | RB | 3 | 9 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| D.SLAYTON | NYG | WR | 3 | 8.6 | 8.7 | -0.2 | 0 | 4.7 | 67.3 |
| Z.MOSS | BUF | RB | 3 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| T.PATRICK | DEN | WR | 3 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 0 | 4.3 | 49 |
| K.BOURNE | NE | WR | 3 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 1 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 57 |
| D.SCHULTZ | DAL | TE | 3 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 0 | 5 | 29.3 |
| R.GAGE | ATL | WR | 2 | 3.9 | 8.6 | -4.7 | 0 | 4.5 | 9 |
| J.HASTY | SF | RB | 2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 3 | 3 | -0.5 |
| T.JOHNSON | NYJ | RB | 3 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 19.7 |
| C.HUBBARD | CAR | RB | 3 | 4.8 | 8.2 | -3.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| J.CONNER | ARI | RB | 3 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 0.5 | 11.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| B.EDWARDS | LV | WR | 3 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0 | 4.3 | 68.3 |
| C.ROGERS | TEN | WR | 3 | 7.3 | 7.9 | -0.6 | 0 | 4.3 | 40 |
| A.HUMPHRIES | WAS | WR | 3 | 5.4 | 7.9 | -2.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 21.3 |
| H.HENRY | NE | TE | 3 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.7 | 0 | 4.3 | 34 |
| D.BROWN | WAS | WR | 3 | 2.3 | 7.6 | -5.3 | 0.3 | 4 | 56.7 |
| S.MICHEL | LA | RB | 3 | 5.2 | 7.5 | -2.3 | 10.3 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| T.HIGBEE | LA | TE | 3 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| V.JEFFERSON | LA | WR | 3 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 0 | 4 | 59.7 |
| D.KNOX | BUF | TE | 3 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 0 | 4 | 26.3 |
| R.ANDERSON | CAR | WR | 3 | 7.1 | 7 | 0.1 | 0 | 3.7 | 65 |
| J.MCKISSIC | WAS | RB | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 2.7 | 3 | 11.3 |
| C.KMET | CHI | TE | 3 | 4.1 | 6.7 | -2.6 | 0 | 4 | 18.3 |
| M.CALLAWAY | NO | WR | 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | -0.3 | 0 | 3.7 | 34.7 |
| A.HOOPER | CLE | TE | 3 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 0 | 3.7 | 18.7 |
| D.GOEDERT | PHI | TE | 3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 3.7 | 23 |
| K.HAMLER | DEN | WR | 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | -2.4 | 0 | 3.3 | 67 |
| D.ARNOLD | CAR | TE | 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | -1.4 | 0 | 3.7 | 33.7 |
| A. ST. BROWN | DET | WR | 3 | 3.4 | 6.4 | -3 | 0 | 3.3 | 31 |
| P.FREIERMUTH | PIT | TE | 3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 1 | 0 | 3.3 | 28 |
| C.WILSON | DAL | WR | 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 27 |
| J.MCNICHOLS | TEN | RB | 3 | 6.9 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 8.3 |
| T.BENSON | DET | WR | 3 | 2.8 | 5.9 | -3.1 | 0 | 3.3 | 29.7 |
| O.BECKHAM | CLE | WR | 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 3 | 49.7 |
| B.JARWIN | DAL | TE | 3 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 0 | 3.3 | 18 |
| D.WILLIAMS | CHI | RB | 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | -2.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| J.LANDRY | CLE | WR | 2 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 5 | 0.5 | 3 | 7 |
| C.HYDE | JAX | RB | 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | -1.3 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 2 |
| D.JOHNSON | HOU | RB | 3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 2 | 1 |
| P.LINDSAY | HOU | RB | 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| J.GUYTON | LAC | WR | 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | -1.3 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 26.3 |
| J.JOHNSON | NO | TE | 3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0 | 2.3 | 29.3 |
| D.NJOKU | CLE | TE | 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 0 | 2.7 | 43.7 |
| A.DILLON | GB | RB | 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | -1.3 | 5 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| S.AHMED | MIA | RB | 3 | 2.2 | 5.1 | -2.9 | 3 | 2 | 12.7 |
| T.KROFT | NYJ | TE | 3 | 3.5 | 5 | -1.5 | 0 | 3 | 14 |
| A.OKWUEGBUNAM | DEN | TE | 3 | 5.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 2.7 | 4.7 |
| L.MURRAY | BAL | RB | 3 | 7.1 | 5 | 2.1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| R.GRIFFIN | NYJ | TE | 3 | 3.2 | 5 | -1.8 | 0 | 3 | 11.3 |
| M.GOODWIN | CHI | WR | 3 | 3.4 | 5 | -1.5 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 24 |
| N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE | TEN | WR | 3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0 | 2.3 | 25.3 |
| D.ROBINSON | KC | WR | 3 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0 | 2.7 | 32.7 |
| H.BRYANT | CLE | TE | 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | -1 | 0 | 2.7 | 32 |
| R.TONYAN | GB | TE | 3 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0 | 2.7 | 5.3 |
| D.JACKSON | LA | WR | 3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 0 | 2.3 | 50.7 |
| T.JONES | NO | RB | 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | -0.8 | 5.3 | 1 | 2.7 |
| R.JONES | TB | RB | 3 | 1.7 | 4.6 | -2.9 | 5.3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| L.ROUNTREE | LAC | RB | 3 | 1.3 | 4.4 | -3.1 | 4.7 | 0.7 | -0.3 |
| W.FULLER | MIA | WR | 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | -1.9 | 0 | 2 | 40.3 |
| Q.WATKINS | PHI | WR | 3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0 | 2.3 | 31 |
| T.SHERFIELD | SF | WR | 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21.3 |
| E.ENGRAM | NYG | TE | 3 | 0.7 | 3.7 | -3 | 0 | 2 | 13.3 |
| T.TREMBLE | CAR | TE | 3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 8.3 |
WEEK 3 BUY-LOW
STEFON DIGGS
Through Week 3, Diggs is only outscoring teammates Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders by 0.6 PPR points per game, leaving some fantasy managers worried. Fortunately for Diggs, he is still an elite talent and seeing elite usage. His 20.2 expected fantasy points per game average is fifth-best at the position on the season, and only 1.5 behind leader Davante Adams. Diggs is averaging 10.7 targets and 136.3 air yards per game, both of which are elite numbers.
As long as the targets and air yards stay remain high, and they should, given his unquestioned status as the top option for the Bills, Diggs is virtually guaranteed to improve his current 14.7 PPG average. He is seeing exactly the kind of usage managers hoped for. His value should be just as high as it was on draft day.
Josh Allen returned to form in Week 3, and I expect some monster games on the horizon for Diggs. If you can get even a slight discount based on his results so far, take it and enjoy elite WR1 production the rest of the year.
ALLEN ROBINSON
While you’re only looking for a slight discount on Diggs, Allen Robinson is a true buy low. Managers are understandably panicking over Robinson’s slow start, but I am optimistic for several reasons.
First, Robinson’s targets are down primarily because the Bears are only averaging 28 pass attempts per game. For context, Chicago attempted 37.8 pass attempts per game last season (9th in the NFL), and 28 pass attempts would have ranked 30th, in front of only New England and Baltimore.
The 2021 number is partially due to Justin Fields having a historically terrible debut last week, and I believe the Bears will return to near their 2020 level the rest of the season. Teams simply have to throw the ball when trailing, and Vegas projects the Bears to win only 5.5 games, one of the worst marks in the league. The offense isn’t great, but they run the same scheme that averaged 37.8 attempts last year.
Robinson still has a 25% target share this season. If the Bears average 37.8 pass attempts the rest of the season and Robinson maintains his target share, he will average 9.5 targets per game, which is exactly the number of targets as he saw last year when he put up a 102-1250-6 line.
Finally, Robinson is significantly underperforming his XFP on the targets he is getting. You could argue that this is due to poor quarterback play, but Robinson only underperformed his XFP by 0.8 points per game in 2020 while playing with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles. The current starting quarterback is uncertain, but Robinson has proven that he can succeed despite poor quarterback play, and I expect the quarterback quality to at least match what he saw in 2020.
In summary, Robinson still has an elite target share, and his raw target numbers should increase as the team pass attempts increase. He’s also been unlucky given his 2021 volume, and he has enough talent to match his XFP even despite poor quarterback play. Robinson comes with risk, but you should be able to get him for a massive discount, and I think he can still put up similar production as last year.
CHUBA HUBBARD
Chuba Hubbard shouldn’t be a target for every team, but if you need short-term running back help, he looks like a solid bet to produce when McCaffrey is out.
Christian McCaffrey played roughly the entire first quarter on Thursday night before leaving with a hamstring injury. Hubbard played 40 of the 51 snaps without McCaffrey on the field and looks like a bell cow as long as CMC is out. His 17.5 expected fantasy points were already good for 14th-best among running backs in Week 3, and he very likely would have risen to around ninth-best with an additional quarter to make up for McCaffrey’s snaps.
The Panthers seem content to feed Hubbard heavy usage in both the running and passing game, so he appears to have a decent chance to put up low-end RB1 numbers as long as McCaffrey misses time. If you didn’t get him off waivers but need a short-term solution at running back, don’t hesitate to throw out an offer for him in your league.
WEEK 3 SELL-HIGH
KAREEM HUNT
Hunt has put up excellent raw fantasy point totals, averaging 17.0 PPR points. He is currently the RB9 on the season. However, the results are a bit misleading. He is only the RB23 in XFP per game on the season.
Hunt has played under 50% (47%, 38%, and 41%) of the snaps in each of the first three games, and all 22 running backs ahead of him in XFP are averaging a higher snap share. Averaging 13.1 XFP per game is excellent given a low snap share, but increasing that number is nearly impossible without more snaps.
In addition, his XFP are fueled by a solid performance in Week 3 when Hunt saw 10 carries and seven targets. If he could sustain that workload all year, I wouldn’t have him on the sell list. But he averaged only 3.2 targets per game last season and had four total targets through Week 2. The seven-target game is impressive but seems unlikely to be sustainable given his prior numbers.
You aren’t going to be able to get RB1 value for him, but try to approach any managers in your league who love to chase past production. He was the RB2 overall in Week 3 behind a 27.5 point performance, so now is an excellent time to sell if you don’t trust his workload moving forward.
JA’MARR CHASE
To be clear, I believe Ja’Marr Chase is a talented player. This suggestion applies only if you can package him for more proven high-end talent in a redraft league. I do expect Chase’s target share to increase as the season goes on.
With that said, Chase’s current production is unsustainable given the opportunities he is getting. Despite his sizzling start to the year, Chase is only averaging 10.4 XFP per game, which ranks 60th at the wide receiver position. This number even includes last week’s game without teammate Tee Higgins, but Chase still only saw five targets in Week 3.
The main reason for Chase’s inflated production is that he’s scored four touchdowns despite seeing only one red zone target on the season (which he did convert for a touchdown). Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both out-targeting Chase, averaging 7.5 and 6.3 targets, respectively, compared to 5.3 for Chase. It’s certainly possible that Chase’s target share rises throughout the season, but it’s also possible that Higgins continues to serve as the primary option all season.
The hype for Chase is extremely high right now, and I would at the very least field offers for him.
FINAL THOUGHTS
That’s all I have for Week 4. Now that you’re an Expected Fantasy Points Expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check back next week for an updated trade value chart and more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!
