NFL Week 4 Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart (2021): Risers, Fallers, Injury Notes

This trade value chart probably looks different than other charts you’re used to seeing. Most other analysts take their rest of the season rankings, apply arbitrary numbers to each player based on rank order, and call it a day.

METHODOLOGY

I used a value-based drafting Excel tool to create the initial pre-Week 1 values for this chart. Since then, I have made changes based on the results from the first three weeks, FantasyPros Rest of the Season ECR, The Wolf’s Rest of Season Rankings, and my expected fantasy points analysis (updated every Wednesday).

For a more detailed explanation of the calculations, please click here. The tool calculates values based on a 12-team, full PPR league.

WEEK 3 RISERS AND FALLERS

Week 3 Stock Watch

📈Herbert, JAllen, Barkley, JRob, Najee, Mike Willy, CEH, Kupp, OBJ, Cooks, DJM, Pittman, AIYUK!!, Beasley, Waddle, Claypool, Meyers, Kirk, PBarber, CPat, Hunt Gesicki

📉Fields, ARob, JTaylor, AJB, Woods, Rondale, Robby A, Osborn, Chubb, Pitts

Missing any?

— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) September 27, 2021

For a more detailed analysis of specific risers and fallers, I recommend listening to The Wolf’s breakdown here.

RISERS

• Josh Allen reminded everyone why he was a consensus top-3 QB off the board in drafts with a monster 358 yard, 4 TD day through the air with another TD on the ground.
• Mike Williams was already a clear riser on last week’s chart, but he again exploded to catch 7 of 9 targets for 122 yards and two scores. I moved him up again this week, but teammate Keenan Allen was also excellent, leading the team in snaps (Allen 55, Williams 48), routes (Allen 39, Williams 35), and targets (Allen 12, Williams 9).
• Najee Harris and Chase Claypool dominated the targets in Pittsburgh with Diontae Johnson sidelined and JuJu Smith-Schuster leaving the game early. Harris was fed an absurd 19 targets and continues to see nearly 100% of the carries. Claypool was targeted 15 times.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire put up his first solid performance of 2021, rushing for 100 yards and catching a short touchdown.
• Jakobi Meyers quietly racked up 14 targets and turned them into 9 catches for 94 yards. Meyers remains the WR1 on the Patriots and could make a nice target if you need WR depth, especially in PPR leagues.

FALLERS

• Justin Fields can be left on waiver wires in single-QB leagues after a brutal 6-20 performance passing, and only 80 total yards. Allen Robinson‘s arrow is clearly pointing down after that performance, and he will need the offense to improve to return value.
• Jonathan Taylor was out-snapped by teammate Nyhiem Hines 34-29 in Week 3. Hines saw six targets to Taylor’s three and is becoming a problem for Taylor’s usage.
• Robert Woods once again disappointed with only 33 yards on 6 targets to Cooper Kupp‘s 12 targets. Woods again ran a route on nearly all pass plays in Week 3 though, so I’m not ready to completely give up yet.

WEEK 3 INJURY NOTES

For a more detailed injury breakdown, check out CJay’s Trainer’s Room article coming out on Wednesday. I am writing this on Monday night and tried to take the following injuries into account, but stay tuned for updates throughout the week.

• Christian McCaffrey suffered the highest-profile injury of the week when he left Thursday Night Football in the first quarter with a hamstring strain. He reportedly will not go on IR, suggesting the team believe he has a shot to play in Week 6. When valuing McCaffrey, I am assuming that he will miss 2-3 weeks with a good chance to return to normal production when he comes back. If you’re 0-3, you probably need to look to sell, but I would hold if you think you can make the playoffs without him for the next few weeks.
• A.J. Brown left Week 3 early with a hamstring injury that could potentially sideline him in future weeks. I slightly downgraded him in the chart, but the situation should be clearer later in the week.
• Chris Carson also injured his hamstring in Week 3, but like Brown, we don’t have much information yet. I also downgraded him slightly.
• James White suffered a hip subluxation in Week 3 and seems likely to go on IR. He is droppable unless the injury turns out to be much less severe than reported.
• Continue to monitor players like Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook, Darrell Henderson, and Diontae Johnson who missed Week 3. All of these players seem to be relatively close to returning and are not downgraded significantly on the chart.

Check back next Tuesday for updated player values and a breakdown of risers and fallers. Reach out on Twitter @RSJ_Jackson with any questions!