The departure of Kenyan Drake this offseason left many excited, including us, about the workhorse potential of Chase Edmonds. That was until it was announced that the Cardinals had signed James Conner in free agency. With news from ESPN’s Josh Weinfuss that Conner and Edmonds will “split the primary reps to start, with whoever has the hot hand getting the ball,” fantasy managers should keep an ear on the ground regarding the duo’s timeshare.
For all you #FantasyFootball managers: Arizona Cardinals' Chase Edmonds and James Conner are RB1 and RB1A https://t.co/DgaaPrCzeV
— Josh Weinfuss (@joshweinfuss) August 10, 2021
With that in mind, is James Conner being overlooked in 2021 fantasy drafts?
LOOKING BACK AT THE 2020 CARDINALS’ BACKFIELD
First, let’s take a look at the 2020 Cardinals’ backfield. After an insane end to the 2019 season in which Kenyan Drake finished as the RB4 after joining the Cardinals, Drake’s 2020 fantasy stock rose immensely.
Heading into 2020 drafts, Drake was being drafted as the RB13 and the 18th overall player off the board. People expected a true RB1, and Drake’s inconsistency and finish as the RB16 in PPR leagues left a bad taste in the mouth of many fantasy players. For that reason, many people view Kenyan Drake’s 2020 season as a bust.
But in reality, Drake didn’t have THAT bad of a season… well for fantasy at least. While only running for a measly 4 YPC, he was just shy of 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. And despite being extremely inefficient, averaging 0.71 fantasy points per opportunity, Drake still finished as an RB2 for the season.
While it’s nice to have efficient players, remember that volume is key in fantasy football and Drake saw plenty of it. Drake had the seventh-most rushing attempts in 2020 and was only one of eight RBs to have over 230 carries. Unfortunately, Drake didn’t get the passing work many had hoped he would get and averaged only two targets per game. Even so, that still amounted to 18 opportunities (rush attempts + targets) per game for Drake.
In contrast, Edmonds saw fewer than 100 carries for the third straight season to start his career. But, he did most of his work in the passing game with a career-high 67 targets. That was good enough for seventh-most among running backs. Edmonds averaged 10 opportunities with an average of four targets per game.
The roles were pretty clear cut and defined with this backfield tandem. Drake was the 1st and 2nd down RB and for the most part, Edmonds was the third-down RB.
SHOULD WE STILL BELIEVE IN JAMES CONNER?
I get it. You’ve been there and done that with James Conner. After reaching fantasy superstar status on the back of his monster 2018 season, James Conner price skyrocketed all the way into the first round!
An injury-plagued 2019 caused him to bust after only appearing in 10 games, but in those games, he finished as an RB1 in 30 percent of games, RB2 in 20 percent of games, and RB3 or worse in 50 percent of games.
Mind you two of those RB3+ games he didn’t even play more than 20 percent of snaps so take those out and his RB34 finish really doesn’t look that bad.
Now, fast forward to 2020 and again Conner again doesn’t impress. His season-long numbers aren’t great, but when you look at the weekly fantasy points, not terrible.
Conner finished as an RB1 in 23 percent of games, RB2 in 38 percent of games, and RB3+ in 38 percent of games; essentially, he was starter-worthy 61 percent of the time. These numbers are nowhere close to the numbers he had in 2018, but why is Conner being drafted as the RB38 in 2021?
FADING CONNER?
The real reason people are fading Conner is simply fatigue. If you’ve drafted him the last couple of seasons he has definitely burned you because he hasn’t lived up to his draft price. But now, being drafted as the RB38 and the 100th player drafted in PPR leagues Conner virtually has no risk.
IS CHASE EDMONDS A CAREER SCATBACK?
I know people are excited for Edmonds, but he hasn’t had more than 100 carries in a season and hasn’t eclipsed 500 yards rushing in a season. If you’re projecting Chase Edmonds for over 200 carries, you shouldn’t be in the projecting business. Edmonds’ RB27 draft price is too high for a player whose real value is only in the passing game. Here’s a fun stat for you; in the last two seasons, the Cardinals have only handed Edmonds one… that’s right ONE goal-line carry. Edmonds is a third-down RB who does have some upside in PPR leagues, but without the guaranteed volume and the lack of goal-line touches, I’m not really interested in Edmonds at his draft price.
JAMES CONNER’S VALUE AT HIS CURRENT ADP
- Draft Price & Expectations: As I alluded to, James Conner’s draft price hasn’t been lower since he broke out in 2018. Two years ago if you drafted Conner it was probably in the first round which means the margin you have in drafts to be wrong is so small that any sort of bad luck will automatically deem that player a bust. Then last year you probably spent a fourth-round pick on Conner but again battled injuries despite showing a decent floor. This year you might be able to draft Conner as late as the 10th round. I know Conner has been a bust the last couple of seasons, but with his current draft price, there’s really no reason to be fading him especially with the role he’ll be stepping into and the workload he could receive, which leads me to my next point…
- The Kenyan Drake Role: As I mentioned before, Drake was one of eight RBs to receive 230 carries or more in 2020. While it’s unlikely either guy fills in and takes over Drake’s role completely, Edmonds has averaged 3.8, 4.6, and 6.1 carries per game over his first three seasons, whereas Conner has averaged 16.5, 11.6, and 13 carries per game over the last three seasons. Of the two RBs, Conner has not only shown the ability to be a workhorse but is built to take over the bulk of the now vacant Kenyan Drake role.
- Red Zone Work: This point links back to my last point of the Drake role. Not only do I think Conner is more likely to receive the high volume that Drake did last year, but he’s definitely more likely to receive the bulk of the red zone carries. Last season, Drake was fourth in the NFL in total red zone carries (56) only behind Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook. Conner has seen a minimum of 22 percent of his teams’ red zone carries since 2018 and received nearly the same amount (27) of carries in the red zone last season that Edmonds has received (30) in his entire career. I think The red zone RB on a high-powered Cardinals offense should be very lucrative for fantasy managers. Edmonds was the 3rd option running the ball in Arizona last season and I don’t really see a reason for that to change in 2021.
I’m not here to tell you that James Conner will be an RB1 next year, but I do think that’s in his range of outcomes. There is a clear role for Conner in this offense and with 240 Kenyan Drake carries gone, Conner will see plenty. There’s no reason that Conner can’t have a Drake-like season and if that happens he will smash his RB38 draft price.
Edmonds is the more explosive player, but I view him as a scat, pass-catching RB only. I don’t view him as a player who will dominate the touches in Arizona and with his draft price, I’m fading him in favor of Conner. With lowered draft price, a clear role to step into, and the presumed red zone RB, Conner is a viable late-round flier and is as good an option as any being drafted in his range to outperform his draft position and become a viable third or fourth RB on your roster.
If you’re looking for some RB depth and someone you can plug into your lineup in a pinch, Conner is a great RB to target who has the potential to become a weekly starter for fantasy football managers in 2021.
Oh and if you needed any more persuading, Conner is reuniting with James Saxon, former Steelers RB coach from 2017 and 2018. It’s likely Saxon played a role in the recruitment of Conner to Arizona and under his tutelage earned Pro Bowl nods and fantasy admirers.
Conner lands at RB35 (+3 vs ECR) and Edmonds lands at RB32 (-6 vs ECR) on The Wolf’s 2021 Fantasy Rankings & Big Board.
