The early 2021 offseason has been nothing short of disastrous for Josh Jacobs and his fantasy outlook, which wasn’t all that sexy anyways.
For reasons unknown, the Raiders have completely dismantled their offensive line. OT Trent Brown has been shipped to the Pats, C Rodney Hudson to the Texans, and G Gabe Jackson is now in Seattle:
the last few weeks the Raiders eviscerated one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, gutting:
Rodney Hudson (31 starts last 2 yrs)
Gabe Jackson (27 starts)
Trent Brown (16 starts)
Richie Incognito (14 starts)…and they got a 5th round pick in return
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 16, 2021
Bold move, Cotton.
Even behind last year’s competent line, Jacobs wasn’t exactly great. He ranked third in the NFL in carries (273) and overall touches (306), but ranked just eighth in rushing and 12th in FPPG.
Despite the steady volume, Jacobs was also quite volatile. He finished outside the Top-24 (6, 40%) more often than inside the Top-12 (5, 33%).
Now stir in the fact that Jacobs’ touches are near-guaranteed to drop after Kenyan Drake was added. At his best, Drake is a third-down specialist, which will cap Jacobs’ already limited receiving upside. It sounds like the Raiders envision Drake in this exact role:
The #Raiders don’t view Kenyan Drake as a “backup” running back. Sounds like he’s going to be all over the field.
— Raiders Beat (@RaidersBeat) March 19, 2021
Last year, Jacobs saw just 45 targets (24th among RBs) despite being the only show in town. He might not sniff 25 in 2021, even if he deserves far more. Plus, Jacobs will be more susceptible to game-flow, on a team that seems likely to be on the wrong side of that equation more often than not.
I have no idea where Jacobs ADP will shake out, but there’s a good chance I’ll own him on exactly zero teams in 2021. He’s fallen to my RB26, behind Kareem Hunt, Raheem Mostert, and Chase Edmonds. If Jacobs lingers in Rounds 3-4, alongside exciting WRs like Terry McLaurin, he’ll be the easiest fade of 2021.
Obviously, if I’m this low on Jacobs, I’m not likely to own any of the second-fiddle Drake either. He sucked in his chance to prove he was an every-down back. Overall, Drake’s signing is the devastating kind of move that sinks two potential commodities in one fell swoop. Avoid the Raiders backfield, and really entire team, in 2021 fantasy football.
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