With only four weeks left in the regular season, we’ve got a lot of work to do. After an excellent 2-0 start to Week 13, Andy Reid ruined our chances at our first ever 3-0 week by not playing Clyde Edwards-Helaire due to his supposed stomach ailment. All jokes aside, that was simply a lazy pick by me and I should’ve seen that one coming.
Nevertheless, Week 13 is in the books and the fantasy playoffs are underway! Let me be the first to say, congratulations to all the ladies and gents out there who made the playoffs. For those of you out there who were not so fortunate, I have three gorgeous player props that will keep you just as captivated as if you were in the fantasy playoffs. Let’s get right into them.
1. Tom Brady over 2.5 TD passes
For my first pick of Week 14, I’m going to turn back the clock and once again take Tom Brady to throw for over 2.5 TDs (+125) as the Minnesota Vikings travel south to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You may be thinking to yourself, “Didn’t Tom Brady have his worst game of the season the last time he made this bet?” You’re absolutely fucking right he did. So what? I’m chalking that one up as a fluke.
Despite the fact that Brady has thrown seven interceptions over the last four games, I’m expecting a big week from the 43-year-old quarterback coming off of a bye week. Over the last ten years, Brady is 7-3 straight up coming off of a bye with an average quarterback rating of 97.27, which is interesting because his career quarterback rating is actually only 96.9. While Tom has played quite well each year coming off of his bye week, he has surprisingly only thrown 15 touchdowns over those ten games. Keep in mind that every single one of these games has been as a member of the New England Patriots; however, if Brady wants to make the playoffs for the twelfth straight season he’s going to need to take this Buccaneers offense to the next level starting tomorrow.
While asking Brady to throw three touchdowns may seem like a lot at this stage in his career, he has actually thrown at least three touchdowns in five of his 12 games this season. In fact, he has thrown at least two touchdowns in nine of his 12 games. I love the value we’re getting this total at considering how close Brady has come to surpassing it week in and week out.
Now, if you don’t trust me after the last time I bet on Brady, that’s fair. But be warned, The Wolf has Brady as QB7 in his Week 14 rankings as he takes on a young Minnesota defense that has given up 24 passing touchdowns this season which is tied for fourth-most in the league with the Jets, Chargers, and Falcons.
This game is sure to be a shootout as the Tampa Bay pass defense is not all that much better as they’ve given up 23 passing touchdowns themselves. I’m feeling a late Tampa Bay drive to not only win the game, but to hit the over on Brady’s 2.5 touchdown pass total.
2. Russell Wilson over 2.5 TD passes
If you haven’t noticed already, I’m addicted to taking overs when it comes to quarterback touchdown passes. Quite frankly, I’m addicted to taking overs, but I don’t mind an under when I see the right one.
So with my second pick of the day, I’m banking on Russell Wilson to throw for over 2.5 TDs (+115) as the Seattle Seahawks take on the winless New York Jets. There’s really no need to overthink this one. The New York Jets just lost a heartbreaker of all heartbreakers and there is absolutely no recovering from it this late in the season. The dejected Jets players will go out and go through the motions, but they’re all just trying to make it four weeks until the end of the season at which point they can just go home and forget this season ever happened.
The Wolf has Wilson as QB5 in his Week 14 rankings as he takes on a porous Jets defense that has given up 24 passing touchdowns this season. By the end of day Sunday, that total will be anywhere from 27 to 30 passing touchdowns surrendered as Russell Wilson from the first half of the season will return in all his glory. There is no doubt that Russell Wilson has taken a step back from his MVP-caliber run in the first eight games of the season. However, it’s quite obvious when you look at Seattle’s schedule that they were playing some of the worst defenses in all of football.
In five of their first seven games of the season, Seattle played Atlanta, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona, and San Francisco. What do all of these teams have in common? They’ve all allowed 20-plus passing touchdowns this season. Not to mention, all five of them have allowed Russell “Mr. Unlimmmmited” Wilson to throw for at least three touchdowns against them. The Jets are primed to join this elite fraternity tomorrow afternoon in Seattle. If Ryan Fitzpatrick and Derek Carr can throw three touchdowns each against the Jets, Russell Wilson can throw at least six…give or take.
I will absolutely be hammering this over as the Jets could not be coming into town at a better time for the Seahawks.
3. Diontae Johnson over 63.5 receiving yards
In what is sure to be an instant classic, the first place Buffalo Bills are playing host to the first-place Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. And so for my third and final pick of the day, I will be taking Diontae Johnson over 63.5 receiving yards (-112). The Wolf has Johnson as his WR13 in his Week 14 rankings as he is taking on a soft Buffalo defense that allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 67 percent of their passes. While Buffalo’s defense was a large part of why they made it to the playoffs last year, the same cannot be said of this year’s defensive unit.
Buffalo’s defense has given up a whopping 249.5 passing yards per game this year! Last year they gave up the third-fewest in all of football with just 195.2 passing yards per game. Additionally, the Buffalo defense has become quite susceptible to the long ball over the course of the last month as they have given up at least one reception of 41 yards in each of their last four games.
Coming off of a disappointing loss to the Washington Football Team, Ben Roethlisberger and the big three of Steelers’ wide receivers are going to feast on this sub-par Buffalo secondary. While Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster may be better known amongst the common fans, it has been Diontae Johnson that has quietly led the Steelers in targets all season. In fact, Johnson has the ninth most targets (106) of all wide receivers in the NFL. Since Week 9, Johnson has been targeted no less than 10 times per game. In Week 11 alone, he was targeted 16 times! Johnson has sure made the most of these targets as he has hauled in at least six receptions in each game during this stretch.
As we’re taking the over on his receiving yards, I should mention that Johnson has also surpassed the 63.5 mark in four out of the five of these games. I will absolutely be hammering this total on Sunday night.
After five weeks of picks, I’m currently sitting at 8-6 (+10.68 units) on the year. Tail at your own risk. You can find all these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Good luck everybody! Let’s win some money! And, as always, bet responsibly!
