2020 Daily Fantasy Football: DraftKings NFL Week 14 Stacks & Value Picks - Roto Street Journal
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2020 Daily Fantasy Football: DraftKings NFL Week 14 Stacks & Value Picks

Week 13 Recap: Welcome back everyone.  Hopefully, you listened to our advice last week, because Tino absolutely smashed on both his stack and triple stack of the week.  He recommended the Derek Carr and Darren Waller stack (83.7 points) and an Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Robert Tonyan triple stack (74.5 points).  If you played either of those stacks (especially Carr/Waller), chances are that you made some nice cash last week. Kendall didn’t have the same kind of success with his Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Keenan Allen triple stack, but who foresaw a DONUT from the Chargers?! 

Week 14 DFS Battle

Kendall’s Lineup Tino’s Lineup
QB Sam Darnold, $5,100 Kirk Cousins, $6,200
RB Aaron Jones, $7,600 Derrick Henry, $8,700
RB James Robinson, $7,500 Kenyan Drake, $5,500
WR Antonio Brown, $5,500 Justin Jefferson, $7,400
WR Jamison Crowder, $5,400 Adam Thielen, $7,000
WR Mike Williams, $4,700 Nelson Agholor, $4,700
TE Noah Fant, $4,100 Logan Thomas, $3,300
Flex D’Andre Swift, $6,500 CeeDee Lamb, $4,800
DST Colts DST Bengals DST, $2,300

Stacks of the Week

KB: This week I’m going back to my favorite stack combination with a RB and DST. My stack this week is Kenyan Drake/Chase Edmonds and the Cardinals DST

I’m going to start with the Cardinals DST cause I’m sure why they are priced so low? I know they’re not a great defense but they get to face the Giants. The Giants have only scored 25+ points in a game twice on the season. They’ve also been sacked 30 times in 12 games this season. Regardless of who starts at QB for the Giants on Sunday, the Cards defense should have a nice day. 

Now onto the other side of the ball with Kenyan Drake/Chase Edmonds. Neither of these guys has great matchups at all, but they both should have low projected ownership. The Giants are coming off a game against the Seahawks where they allowed 190 yards rushing. It’s a dart throw for sure but if the Cardinals can dominate defensively, you could see a big game for one of or both of these running backs.  

JT:  Derrick Henry and the Titans DST is my stack of the week this week.  I typically stack QB and WR, but I love the potential for this stack to set a high floor foundation for your lineup.  

This one doesn’t need a ton of explaining if we’re being honest.  Derrick Henry runs in the second level like the kid in elementary school who hit puberty earlier than everyone else. Against Jacksonville’s defense, I don’t think it is a bold prediction to say that I expect him to get to the second level all day.  

The second part of this stack is the Titans DST at $3,100.  If Jacksonville goes down early and has to press the ball down the field with Mike Glennon, expect the turnovers to be plentiful.  Abandoning the run would be the worst possible situation for the Jaguars, and if they go down early they may be forced to do so.  

Triple Stack of the Week

KB: This week I’m going with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and Jonnu Smith. Derrick Henry needs no introduction. This dude is a beast and he’s the second-highest price RB on the slate for a reason. Tino said enough on Henry, so I’m going to move on to Tannehill. 

Ryan Tannehill is having another very good season. Last week, Tannehill had a monster game against the Browns and he gets to face another suspect defense this week. Tannehill threw for almost 400 yards and 3 touchdowns and he could have had an even bigger game if it wasn’t for a couple of drops from his receivers. Tannehill has shown that he has a very solid floor with an extremely high ceiling and is a great option this week despite his high projected ownership (8.8%). 

Lastly, onto the dart throw that is the TE position. Jonnu Smith has let many, many fantasy owners down this season (including myself) but I think this is a chance for him to redeem himself. The Jags have given up the second-most receiving touchdowns in the league (9) so I think Jonnu has as good a chance as any (not named Kelce) to score this week. He’s a low ownership play (2.9%) and is contrarian compared to the likes of Corey Davis (16.7%) and A.J. Brown (9.3%). 

JT: My triple stack comes from Kendall’s favorite team (SKOL!). I’m going with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen

This stack gives you everything you look for in a Milly Maker triple stack. I’ll break these factors down below:

  1. Low Ownership: Having a stack whose players have a low ownership percentage gives you a massive edge when trying to differentiate your lineup from the pack.  As a general rule of thumb, I try to keep my triple stacks to under 20% total projected ownership if possible.  In this weeks case, the Vikings triple stack is projected to be well under the 20% threshold at around 13% (Cousins at 2.5%, Jefferson at 4.4%, Thielen at 6.1%)
  2. Explosiveness: Cousins has thrown 26 touchdown passes on the season. Pretty average numbers for a QB at this stage of the season. However, Thielen and Jefferson have combined for the most touchdowns by any duo at the position this year, scoring 19 touchdowns combined. Cousins has only thrown 7 TD passes all year to a receiver not named Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. 
  3. Affordable: Finding a triple stack that can allow you to still spend at other positions is key. While I would necessarily call this stack “cheap”, an average player salary of around $6,850 won’t break the bank either.

Why is this important?  Because it tells us that if Cousins is able to throw against the Bucs defense, then the beneficiaries will predictably be Jefferson and Thielen.  When stacking guys from other teams like Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay, you don’t truly know who will be the beneficiary of an explosive passing game.  In Minnesota, you know that a Cousins boom game will equal a boom game from likely both Jefferson and Thielen.  

Here’s a mind-blowing stat:  Kirk Cousins has thrown the ball 202 times to wide receivers during the 2020 season.  How many were thrown to Jefferson and Thielen? 171. Cousins throws the ball to a wide receiver not named Thielen or Jefferson about 3 times each game. 

Values of the Week

Tino’s Value of the Week: Nelson Agholor ($4,700)

Who is this receiver wearing #15 for the Raiders and what has he done with Nelson Agholor?

Kendall and I went to college in Philadelphia and had to listen to our Eagles fanatic friends absolutely rip Nelson Agholor apart for literally our whole college careers. Fast forward to 2020 and he is tearing it up for John Gruden and making up for every ounce of disappointment that Henry Ruggs has thus far provided. Agholor has seen a major uptick in targets over the past three weeks, and is beginning to look like a focal point of the offense.  He is averaging almost 9 targets per game over his last 3 games, and Gruden is using him to take shots down the field.  

Agholor is matched up against a stout Colts secondary in what is a MASSIVE game for the group from Sin City.  I expect Gruden to continue to feed Waller in between the numbers, while allowing Agholor to do his work outside.  I’m calling my shot that Agholor keeps his heavy target share, and also connects on a deep shot this week. Take the modest $4,700 price for significant volume and hope for the deep shot to hit.

KB’s Value of the Week: Antonio Brown ($5,500) (6.5%)

I have a weird feeling this week. The Buccaneers are taking on my Minnesota Vikings in what could be a decisive game for the Vikings playoff chances. This matchup is projected to be one of the highest O/U of the week (52.5) which means that both teams should be able to move the ball on one another. The Buccaneers are coming off a bye week after what felt like a pretty lackluster performance against the Chiefs two weeks ago. 

Despite improvements from Minnesota’s defense, their secondary can still be beaten particularly with Tom Brady at the helm and the embarrassment of riches he has as weapons. 

All signs point that Antonio Brown is behaving so far in Tampa, but I can’t imagine he’s happy after only being targeted 3 times in a losing effort week 12. You know what they say, “the squeaky wheel gets the grease”. Look, I know I don’t have a ton of evidence to back this up but I just have a feeling that we’re due for a breakout Antonio Brown game and with Mike Evans a bit banged up, why not this week? 

Author

  • Fantasy football enthusiast & writer for Roto Street Journal. Graduate of Saint Joseph's University Class of 2019.

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