Joe Mixon (foot) has been ruled out for against the Browns, skyrocketing Giovani Bernard’s Week 7 fantasy outlook.
First, and most importantly, this lands you a glowing opportunity to toss this stache into the lineup:
As if you somehow need more incentive, Bernard should be the Bengals’ every-down featured back come Sunday. The Browns have been middle-of-the pack against the run (18.2 FPPG allowed, 17th). If the past is any indication, Bernard could eat.
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Mixon has missed only 4 games since being drafted in 2017. In those absences, Bernard has typically feasted:
In Mixon’s absences, Bernard averages 17.5 touches (4.5 rec), 88.75 total yards, and 1 TD per game — good for 19.38 FPPG, or RB8 in 2020 fantasy. His season-long pace is a whopping 280 touches (72 rec), 1420 total yards, and 16 TDs.
Smash play, right?
Well, in seasonal, yes. Just about.
Bernard leaps to my RB19 in my Week 7 Fantasy Football rankings. For perspective, this has Bernard just behind Antonio Gibson, despite the higher floor. He’s above other popular streamers like Jerick McKinnon and Justin Jackson. Unless you’re stacked at the position, you should start Bernard.
Still, we can’t pretend there’s no risk, despite Bernard’s previous domination whenever the workhorse.
First, this is Bernard’s first game under Zac Taylor without Mixon. Most likely, Taylor will ride Bernard for the similar 17ish touches he’s typically seen sans Mixon. This is especially true with Samaje Perine as the next man up.
Still, we can’t just write it in with permanent marker.
Second, Bernard has looked quite meh in his limited 2020 touches.
Third, the Bengals could just ride Joe Burrow even harder. Last time out versus the Browns, Burrow chucked for a career high 61 pass attempts, scoring over 25 FPs in the process. I have him, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd all higher than consensus. A Burrow-Higgins stack would cost less than $11k on DraftKings, and should feast.
Personally, I think Bernard could underwhelm relative to expectations. I bet he racks up 14-15 touches (5 rec) for a serviceable & scoreless 70 yards, 12-14 FP day. Solid, usable, worthy numbers for most owners indeed.
Yet, for DFS GPPs? Coming in at nearly 30% ownership projections? Hard-pass.
Kenyan Drake comes in at $4800, only $300 more, and offers far more ceiling in my opinion. Seattle is certainly more susceptible to the pass, but Dalvin Cook and bum-ass Alex Mattison just steamrolled them. Fresh off Momma’s motivation, Drake ran far harder than he has all year, and could be in line for another 2+ TD day against a Seahawks team he typically dominates.
Or, I’d pay down to Jamaal Williams ($4000) or AJ Dillon ($4000), especially if Aaron Jones sits.
Bernard could smash. He has in the past. This makes him a risky fade at the price and ownership projections. Still, to separate from the pack, I prefer pivoting elsewhere for my cheap RB needs.
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