With Week 3 in the books, you should have a good idea of your team’s strengths and weaknesses. Now is a perfect time to address those weaknesses via the trade market! I previously outlined a detailed strategy on how to negotiate better trades, which could help you this week when making moves.
Buy Low
David Johnson
Rostering bell-cow running backs is critical to fantasy success. We want running backs who are on the field almost every snap and dominate their team’s share of running back touches. In the first 3 weeks, David Johnson has fit that description.
David Johnson 91.4% of HOU snaps (148 of 162)
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) September 28, 2020
Gets MIN run D in Week 4
Despite rarely coming off the field, Johnson has been slightly disappointing so far. He is averaging 13.2 PPG and sitting at RB21 in PPR.
However, the Texans have played a brutal schedule through three weeks. The Chiefs (13th-fewest PPR RB points allowed), Ravens (3rd-fewest), and Steelers (2nd-fewest) are all great teams with solid run defenses. The Texans also faced negative game scripts in all three matchups, limiting rushing opportunities.
Thankfully, Johnson won’t have to face one of these juggernauts every week. He has locked in a bell-cow role in a talented offense, and he should get more carries against lesser opponents.
Deshaun Watson
For similar reasons as David Johnson, Deshaun Watson is a solid buy-low candidate. Watson was drafted as a borderline top-five fantasy QB for his talent and dual-threat ability.
He ranked first in PFF’s adjusted deep completion percentage (54.1%), finishing 5th in deep yardage (1,111) and second in TDs (11). Expect Watson and the Texans to rank Top-Five in downfield passing in 2020.
But due to the Texans’ brutal schedule, he is QB17 on the season. Upcoming matchups against the struggling Vikings are Jaguars look much more favorable than the first three opponents.
Nothing about Watson’s situation has changed. The Texans still have a capable group of playmakers in David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, and Kenny Stills. But Watson is still an elite talent.
If your league’s Watson owner is frustrated, take advantage. Don’t give up huge value for a QB in a single-QB league, but Watson is a major target for 2QB and Superflex leagues.
Zach Ertz
While Ertz is only TE11 in PPR through Week 3, he has seen excellent volume. Ertz has a team-leading 24 targets through three weeks, a 128-target pace for the season. He’s also playing over 90% of the snaps, an elite number for a tight end.
In addition, teammate Dallas Goedert is going to miss time with a fractured ankle. Goedert’s absence should yield even more targets for Ertz.
If the Eagles can turn around their struggling offense, Ertz could be poised for a massive breakout in the coming weeks. But even if they can’t, the Eagles are feeding Ertz elite volume for a tight end. He should remain a solid fantasy contributor.
Sell High
Kareem Hunt
Hunt has put up excellent raw fantasy point totals, averaging 16.9 PPR points, good for RB13 on the season. However, the results are a bit misleading.
Hunt has played under 50% of the snaps in each of the first three games. His numbers have also been fueled by three total touchdowns.
The Browns have now played 2/3 of their games against Cincinnati and Washington, two of the worst teams in the NFL. They are second in the NFL in rushing rate at 52.66%, but I expect this to decrease against better teams due to more negative game scripts.
While Chubb and Hunt both may see enough rushing volume in games the Browns control, I don’t they can both sustain their current production over the entire season. Look to capitalize on Hunt’s hot start before his sub-50% snap share catches up to him.
Rex Burkhead
After Burkhead’s 34.8 PPR point explosion in Week 3, he might be turning a few heads in your league. Burkhead has limited trade value, but throw some offers out if you have him.
When James White and Damien Harris return, Burkhead will not be a viable fantasy option. Both will likely return soon, but neither is certain to play this week. Burkhead could be useful to an RB-needy team in Week 4 if they don’t suit up. Try to get anything you can if he’s not in your starting lineup.
Hold
Kenyan Drake
Last week, I advocated for buying Kenyan Drake. Despite seeing 18 carries in Week 3, he only scored 8.9 PPR points.
If you took my advice, don’t panic! Drake is still getting a favorable workload.
Drake is 4th in the NFL in carries and 8th in rushing yards, so I wouldn't panic, but his lack of targets is a shock (he has 5). Chase Edmonds has handled a lot of the targets, though Drake is 16th among RBs in routes, so there's room for more. https://t.co/Ry1CrqER6T
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 28, 2020
Soft matchups against the Panthers and Jets should provide great opportunities for Drake to turn it around in the next two weeks.
