After a bloodbath of injuries to star players in Week 2, you might find yourself turning to the trade market to fill holes. I previously outlined a detailed strategy on how to negotiate better trades, which could help you this week when making moves.
Week 2 featured solid performances from all four of my previous buy-low targets: Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Odell Beckham Jr., and Dak Prescott. Be sure to grab the guys on this week’s list before it’s too late!
BUY LOW
Kenyan Drake
While he hasn’t been a total bust, Drake owners might be a little frustrated. Currently the RB22 in PPR, Drake has performed below expectations through two games.
Despite the subpar production, he has a lot going in his favor. San Francisco and Washington, Arizona’s first two opponents, both rank in the top-10 in run stuff rate. Fortunately, Drake faces off against the lowly Lions, Panthers, and Jets over the next three games. The Cardinals should be favored to win all three, likely leading to some positive game scripts.
Kingsbury loves to play fast and run no-huddle. Meaning lots of snaps for an offense that’s averaging a healthy 27 points per game against two solid defenses, which is a recipe for fantasy success.
Highest average combined Snaps in their games through 2 Weeks:
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) September 22, 2020
DAL 147
ATL 144
LAC 143.5
CIN 142
LAR 138.5
KC 137
DEN 136.5
PHI 136.5
ARZ 136
CLE 136
———
Fewest:
CAR 127
NYG 127
MIA 126
NE 125.5
GB 124.5
JAX 124.5
BAL 124
HST 123.5
MIN 119.5
IND 115
Drake is seeing solid volume in the run game, averaging 18 carries. He saw 4.4 targets per game with the Cardinals last year, so look for an uptick in his current average of 2 per game.
Given the upcoming schedule and the Cardinals’ explosive offense, Drake’s value is likely as low as it will get this year.
DeVante Parker
After battling through a hamstring injury and two tough cornerback matchups, DeVante Parker sits at WR29 in PPR.
BUY window is open on DeVante Parker and Preston Williams after two games against very tough NE and BUF pass defenses. Week 3: Jaguars
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 21, 2020
Parker is only a year removed from a breakout 72-1202-9 line last year. He was the overall WR2 over the final eight weeks of the season! During the draft, many owners were worried about Preston Williams eating into Parker’s production, but Williams has only caught 3 of 12 targets on the season.
Parker comes with some risk due to the hamstring and potential transition to Tua Tagovailoa during the season. However, his ceiling is as high as any player in the WR2-3 range.
Allen Robinson
Robinson has been targeted a team-high 18 times over the first two games, a 144-target pace for the season. Despite only producing 8 catches for 107 yards, Robinson is still seeing the elite volume needed to produce another WR1-level season.
Even though Trubisky is still wildly inconsistent, Robinson’s situation is the same as his 2019 breakout. Volume is king in fantasy football, so if the Robinson owner is panicking over a slow start, be sure to take advantage.
A Week 3 matchup against a horrible Falcons defense is a great opportunity for Robinson to turn it around.
SELL HIGH
Stefon Diggs
Diggs is currently sitting at WR4 in PPR behind two monster performances by Josh Allen and the Bills offense. He was a great value at ADP. But if you’re desperate for running back help, selling high could be the right move.
Diggs put up a solid 8-86-0 line on the lifeless Jets in Week 1. He then exploded for an 8-153-1 line against the Dolphins last week but benefitted from an unexpectedly soft matchup.
…Igbinoghene had a role in Week 1, but struggled and entered the game seemingly having been benched for Nik Needham. Diggs, of course, had a huge game, with most of it against the rookie.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 21, 2020
I don’t believe Diggs will completely bust, but it’s hard to see his value going much higher. If someone else in your league is buying the hype on Diggs as a true WR1, take advantage and fortify your roster in other areas.
Nick Chubb
Last week, I said to take advantage of a potential breakout on Thursday Night Football to sell Chubb. Well, here’s your chance. Chubb gashed the Bengals for 124 yards and 2 TDs on 23 touches.
Notably, Hunt also had 101 total yards a 2 TDs on 12 touches. It’s pretty clear that Hunt is not going away even in a positive game script.
While Chubb had a great game in Week 2, you need to ask yourself how many more positive game scripts the Browns will have moving forward. Chubb is a great option against helpless teams like the Bengals, but as we saw in Week 1, Hunt looks like the guy to own when the Browns are trailing.
Unless you believe in the Browns a lot more than I do, take advantage of his breakout performance and see what you can get.
HOLD
Christian McCaffrey
If you’re sitting at 0-2 or your league has very few playoff spots, the decision gets a little trickier. But if the rest of your roster is good enough to stay afloat for 4-6 weeks, try to resist the lowball offers that should come pouring in.
At the same time, be sure you know your league settings before considering making an offer for McCaffrey. For example, he has a lot more value in a 12-team league where 6 teams make the playoffs than a 12-team league where 4 teams make the playoffs. Fewer playoff spots mean losses taken while McCaffery is out will be more costly.
Upside wins championships in fantasy football, and nobody has more upside than Christian McCaffrey. But make sure to evaluate the whole situation before making a move.
