FALLLERS & INJURIES
1) Kyler Murray and Offensive Line Put Forth a Disgusting Effort in Week 2
Oh my God, panic! The sky is falling down! Kyler Murray should be avoided everywhere now!
Obviously, I’m kidding.
Sure, this was a dreadful performance by the entire offense, including Murray. My eyebrows (and throw-up) indeed rose at the sight of this abysmal line play— that concern is the one that lingers the most.
But judging Murray and this overall offense by their preseason outputs is foolish.
Kingsbury and the Cardinals are deliberately displaying as vanilla of an offense as possible. And an offense based on pace, aggression, and creativity can’t look good if “dumbed down.”
I still firmly believe in Murray’s arm and rushing ability. I believe the weapons around him will fit this scheme perfectly. And I think Kingsbury’s offense is going to be plenty explosive when they ratchet up the rate of play and really get defenders on their heels. My hope is a faster, more rhythmic pace will raise the offensive line’s level of play.
So if you want to rank Cam Newton or Carson Wentz, and their equal ceilings but higher-floors, above Murray now? Fine by me. But don’t suddenly cross him off your draft-boards because of one clunker. This bird is going to fly and bring championships with him.
2) Keenan Allen Out for Remainder of Preseason With Ankle Injury, Highlights Fantasy Risk Score
Though he’s enjoyed a recent string of health, Keenan Allen has been bitten by the injury bug again.This time, it came during practice when he suffered an ankle injury, which has in result knocked him out for the remainder of the preseason.
The Chargers expect him to be good for Week 1. However, the prolonged absence from camp could mean it’s more than just a little sprain that he’s dealing with. If it’s a high ankle sprain, then there would be a higher possibility of it acting up during the season. Either way, this would be Allen’s ninth documented injury since entering the league, which is why fantasy owners will always hesitate before clicking the “draft” button.
Allen’s talent has never been the issue. He’s a top-three route runner in the league and is one of the most consistent target hogs in a very explosive offense. Over the last two seasons he’s averaged 100 receptions and 1,295 yards on an absurd 148 targets.
Still, his Risk Score can only take a hit now as he adds another injury to his record — which is always his biggest question mark. Allen remains my WR9, but this injury only highlights the high risk that comes with drafting the oft-injured wideout.
3) Rashaad Penny Flounders and Remains Firmly Behind Chris Carson
Though owners originally were horny that Rashaad Penny was in “far better shape” and in a “1A, 1B” backfield, this summer has been unkind.
Every report has gushed about Chris Carson, most recently suggesting he’ll take “two-thirds of the workload” while Penny cleans up the scraps. Based on preseason usage, this seems almost dead-on. Over 17 first-team snaps, Carson played on 12 (71%) while Penny logged just 5 (29%).
Worse, he’s looked sluggish all preseason, most recently racking up a grand -2 yards across 6 carries. Conversely, Carson exploded for 25 yards on his 5 totes (5 YPC).
With over 33 rush attempts and 160 yards per game last year, this Ground Pie should be large enough to feed both backs. But Penny will need to improve his play fast if he’s going to be fed anything meaningful.
4) DK Metcalf Undergoes Knee Surgery, Week 1 Status Uncertain
Though we’ve raved about how well DK Metcalf’s freakish skillset fits the Seahawks downfield scheme, he can’t make plays if he’s not on the field.
Injury-concerns were at least partly responsible for Metcalf’s draft-day slide, and they’ve reared their ugly head again. He’ll undergo surgery for an unspecified knee injury. Early prognosis is “optimism he won’t be out long” and has a shot at Week 1. Pete “Mr. Sunshine” Carroll also waxes poetic on literally everything involving his players, so I wouldn’t call this exactly reliable.
Every rookie needs time to get used to the NFL level of play and form chemistry with his QB. Missing this hugely important time will likely mean a slow-start for Metcalf, who had been on the path to earning the No.2 WR gig.
The upside is still very real here in a perfect fit. But Metcalf may now need some time to really get going with Wilson.
5) In danger of getting cut and needing of a “good performance” Carlos Hyde… fumbles
I’ve been higher than most on Hyde, largely because he had a shot at earning work inside this juggernaut offense.
Yet, with rumors he might not even make the final roster, Hyde’s fantasy stock takes a massive hit.
Entering Week 2, The Athletic’s Chief writer left Hyde off his final roster because “he still needs to prove he’s capable of making the offense better.” He did add “Hyde can find his way back on the roster with a good performance against the Steelers.”
So what does Hyde do? Fumble.
Meanwhile, Darwin Thompson has been nothing short of thrilling in his early action. Consequently, while I expected Hyde to own the invaluable No.2 role here, Thompson has now become my favorite Penny Stock to target in the Chiefs backfield.
6) Jimmy Garoppolo Laughably Bad in 2019 Debut
In his first game-action since his ACL tear, Jimmy Garoppolo was unfathomably bad. He showed very questionable vision and decision-making, tossing one pick and nearly a second pick-six if it hadn’t been dropped.
Granted, overreacting to bad preseason play can lead owners astray. But Garoppolo reportedly threw five consecutive interceptions in a recent practice, and has routinely been bashed by beats.
With so many other options at QB, such as the ascending Darnold, why bother burning a pick into Garoppolo?
PENNY STOCKS
1) Tony Pollard Continues to Shine in Ezekiel Elliott’s Absence
Hopefully you read the tea leaves and followed my advice on Tony Pollard last week.
Once again, Pollard logged all the snaps with Dak Prescott and the starters (13/13), before resting the remainder of the game.
Unlike last week’s quiet 16 yards, however, Pollard genuinely exploded and likely opened up far more fantasy eyes in the process.
With the Cowboys backed up in their own end zone, Pollard was the team’s offensive engine. He touched the ball on half the snaps, racking up 51 yards and an explosive 14 yard score.
In fact, Pollard’s standout performance prompted Jerry Jones to joke “Zeke who?” Of course, Zeke reportedly found this “disrespectful” to the point he’s remained in Cabo.
Though migraine-inducing for Zeke owners, Pollard’s outlook improves by the day. He’s becoming a must-draft by Pick 100, and could truly finish as 2019’s “James Conner.”
2) Josh Allen Displays Improved Touch and Accuracy in Shredding Panthers Defense
We all knew Josh Allen possessed a cannon of an arm. But, if he can start to develop touch on throws down the field (like this), his fantasy and real-life ceiling rises. In Preseason Week 2 action against the Panthers’ starting defense (sans Luke Kuechly), Allen picked apart Carolina’s secondary.
In just two drives Allen was 9-for-11 for 102 yards, while setting up two scores. Last year’s QB2 from Week 12-on (yes, better than Mahomes), Allen has shown an improvement in accuracy this preseason. If he can utilize his added weapon in Cole Beasley to move the chains, he’ll keep the offense on the field. Allen will continue to get ground points and chunk plays, but his improvement in the game managing areas will only point his fantasy arrow upwards.
We all know Josh Allen has a cannon… but if he can develop some touch? 👀 #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/84q0xRixuR
— Roto Street Journal (@RotoStJournal) August 16, 2019
During his two drives, he dropped that corner route throw into a bucket on the sideline (linked above) and then found his tight end in the seam between two defensive backs. These are two tough throws that Allen would have certainly missed last season. Allen has also established a quick rapport with chains-mover Cole Beasley, resulting in five receptions on five targets against the Panthers.
As of now, Allen is our QB17 (+3 vs ECR, +6 vs ADP), ahead of Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady and Mitch Trubisky. He’ll likely stay in that spot entering the season, meaning you can basically get him for free. If you’re securing a stud at quarterback and want to take a flier on a high-upside QB, Allen is your guy.
3) Justice Hill Flashes the Explosiveness to be a Fantasy Powerhouse in Greg Roman’s Run-Centric Attack
There’s been some growing fantasy buzz surrounding Ravens rookie RB Justice Hill, and he confirmed why he’ll be a factor in the Ravens’ backfield during Thursday night’s game vs the Packers. The rookie out of Oklahoma State racked up 49 yards and a physical goal line touchdown on ten carries and showed all of his attributes throughout the night.
On his goal line score, he broke a tackle at the line of scrimmage before knifing in between two defenders to cross the goal line. Then, he showed his quickness on multiple carries by snapping ankles and finding extra yardage. On a team that’s set to run the ball a shitload this season under Greg Roman, Hill’s unique skill-set will allow him to possess standalone value with extreme upside if Mark Ingram goes down.
Coming out of an Air Raid offense at Oklahoma State, where he unseated NFL-starter Chris Carson as a rookie, Hill was clocked as the NFL Combine’s fastest running back at a 4.40 flat.
Although there is direct competition in front of him for third-down back duties in the beloved Kenneth Dixon, it wouldn’t take much for Hill to be more reliable and readily available every week than what Dixon has brought to the table, thus far. Still, Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards will likely always get the bruising “in-between the 20’s role,” but Hill brings a different element to the backfield that meshes perfectly with Jackson.
Plus, Ingram is approaching 30, and has a sneaky high injury history. If Hill were to become the man in this run-obsessed offense at any point, he’d be a weekly RB2 with upside for more.
4)Darwin Thompson Flashes Fantasy Upside Once Again as Carlos Hyde Struggles
In only two preseason games, Darwin Thompson has become my must-draft “Penny Stock” Sleeper RB in fantasy football. Though not quite as stat-stuffing as his NFL Debut, Thompson once again flashed the traits that could help him earn time in the NFL’s most explosive offense.
Thompson’s final “box score” won’t wow: 4 carries, 31 yards (7.75 YPC). However, he helped carry the Chiefs to their only scoring drive of the night. Thompson’s burst was again on full display, as he gained the edge on outside runs of 14 and 11 yards. He also flashed his ability to fight through contact, forcing 5 missed tackles on his 10 touches so far.
Perhaps most importantly, Thompson flashed excellent pass-protection. He consistently picked up blitzes and kept his QB upright, including an excellent block that allowed Chad Henne to hit Mecole Hardman for a 17-yard TD strike.
After earning the praise of his RBs coach and MVP Patrick Mahomes in Week One, Thompson elicited positive reviews from HC Andy Reid:
“He’s playing hard, aggressive football,” Reid said of Thompson. “I don’t think he had quite as many touches as last time, but when he had opportunities I thought he did a good job. He’s seeing things. He’s patient enough to where he can bounce (outside). His vision’s good. And then he’s got a pretty good understanding of the pass game.”
Combined with Hyde’s aforementioned struggles, Thompson continues to explode up the Big Board.
5) Ty Montgomery the clear No.2 Back for the Jets, all while carving out a standalone role
Very few owners had Ty Montgomery on their radars entering the offseason. This needs to change after Montgomery has dominated first-team reps in early preseason action, and looked damn solid in doing so.
Le’Veon Bell is a horse… but he has a sneaky high injury risk, which may have only grown after a year removed from football. As of now, Montgomery is the runaway to serve as Bell’s backup, and brings the dual-threat skills to thrive if called upon.
In fact, Montgomery may bring his own standalone value beyond his high-end handcuff status. According to The Athletic, Montgomery “is not just a complement to Bell” but “a weapon for Gase to play with.” The same report notes how both Bell and Montgomery are “regularly on the field together,” with both motioned all over the place.
As a newfound “handcuff with benefits,” Montgomery has to enter your late round radar.
6) Jakobi Meyers Paces the Patriots Receiving Corps Once Again
Jakobi Meyers has been the star of 2019 Camp, emerging as Tom Brady‘s “favorite target” and making highlight plays seem routine.
Preseason 1 was Exhibit A, with Meyers scorching the Lions for 68 yards and 2 TDs. He was again the passing-game engine, totaling team-highs in catches (6), targets (6), and yards (82) while once more getting open at will.
Indeed, Josh Gordon’s return puts a dent in Meyers’ ultimate ceiling. Still, he’s done more than enough to earn a roster spot, and would be in a prime position if Julian Edelman were to get injured or Gordon’s off-field concerns arose once again.
7) Adrian Peterson Remains Ageless, Looks Spry and Fit on Limited Work
Adrian Peterson won’t draw any “ohhs” or “ahhs” on Draft Day. But the ageless wonder brings the type of “Unsexy Upside” that can truly impact a season.
He ranked fifth in the league in in rushing attempts (251) and 8th in yardage (1042) en route the a highly-useful RB18 finish.
With Derrius Guice still not cleared for contact, the Redskins may choose to ride Peterson once again, at least over the early portion of the season. Though he won’t hit his 2,000 yard goal, Peterson could be a useful early-season fantasy bridge if you need a flex bandaid while waiting to see how a pick with more “uncertain upside” plays out.
8) Damien Harris Feasts in High-Volume Role
After missing Week 1 of the preseason, Damien Harris’ debut was largely anticipate.
He was as impressive as advertised.
Harris racked up over 100 total yards while feasting on 18 touches (4 receptions), showcasing his ability to shoulder the offensive load if needed.
Granted, Sony Michel has reportedly distanced himself throughout camp by flashing improved receiving prowess.
But Michel is incredibly fragile. The team is unlikely to ride their prized back into the ground before the playoffs, and Harris is rapidly proving he can help carry the load and preserve their stud.
Plus, if Michel does go down, Harris would come with a mountainous ceiling. He’s already rumored to be an option at the goalline, which would carry very real 10+ TD upside on its own.
Regardless, Harris clearly has the talent, as well as many potential scenarios to flash it.
9) Deon Cain Justifies the Constant Hype in 2019 Debut
Deon Cain was one of the most hyped players of the 2018 offseason. Despite falling to Round Six, Cain was being labeled “the big star of (Colts) training camp” after he “kept jumping out in red-zone drills.”
Unfortunately, a preseason ACL tear sent the hype train to a screeching halt, costing Cain his rookie year.
Yet, if his first 2019 NFL action is any indication, Cain seems ready to build upon his impressive rookie start. He made plays all over the field, whether on screens, deep down the field, or in the red zone en route to 80 yards on 7 receptions.
Indeed, Andrew Luck‘s shaky health and a more-crowded WRs room are concerns for Cain’s outlook. But with Parris Campbell sitting out nearly all of camp with a hamstring strain, Cain has made the most of his opportunities once again. He’s a name to flag on Watch Lists or deep-league sleeper lists.
