On the first day of legal tampering, the Jacksonville Jaguars added a lid-lifter to their receiver corps by signing Gabe Davis from the Bills to a lucrative three-year deal worth $39 million.
This signing marked the end of the underwhelming Calvin Ridley era in Jacksonville. It added a new dynamic to the Jaguars’ passing game and may improve the 2024 fantasy outlook of Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Trevor Lawrence.
GABE DAVIS’ INCONSISTENCY WITH THE BILLS
Gabe Davis, known for his role as a complementary deep threat alongside Stefon Diggs in Buffalo, showcased an impressive average of nearly 15 air yards per target throughout his career. Despite this, his lack of consistency limited his volume and efficiency as a reliable fantasy option.
During his 64-game tenure in Buffalo, Davis accumulated 163 catches for 2,630 yards and 27 touchdowns. His yards-per-catch rate of 16.7 stands out significantly, a metric that a Jaguars receiver hasn’t matched for years.
However, his lack of targets and overall consistency plagued his time in Buffalo. He put himself on the map with a 201-yard and four-touchdown performance. Yet, throughout his time with the Bills, Davis consistently accounted for less than 17% of the team’s targets in any given season. His average of 1.41 yards per route run placed him 59th among qualifying wide receivers in recent seasons, further highlighting his limited offensive involvement.
In the 2023 season, Davis missed both of Buffalo’s playoff games. He ended the regular season with 45 receptions for 746 yards and tied his career-high with seven touchdowns. Despite his knack for finding the end zone, his consistency has been questioned, as he tends to disappear from games.
CALVIN RIDLEY LEAVES VOID ON JAGS TARGET TOTEM POLE
In Jacksonville, Gabe Davis finds himself in a three-receiver starting lineup alongside Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, which could potentially elevate his fantasy value. Yet, at 24 years old, Davis remains a high-risk, high-reward option for fantasy managers, a characteristic unlikely to change significantly down south.
“Gabe is to me like a Swiss Army Knife,” Jags HC Doug Pederson said. “He can run routes. He was a big part of the offense in Buffalo. He’s going to be another key piece to what we’re doing. He’s strong, he’s big. All things are positive with Gabe. I’m really looking forward to getting him in there and seeing how he fits.”
Nevertheless, the departure of target hog Calvin Ridley, who signed with the division-rival Titans shortly after Davis joined the Jaguars, presents a shift in Jacksonville’s passing game. Ridley, who ranked second on the team in targets (136) behind Evan Engram, leaves Trevor Lawrence with many opportunities to distribute among his receiving corps, potentially providing Davis with quality targets.
Although those available targets could spread to Davis, Christian Kirk should benefit most from Ridley’s departure. Kirk, who finished with 57 receptions and 787 yards on 85 targets in only 12 games last season, is going off the board at WR33 and 55.4 overall in early Underdog Fantasy Best Ball drafts. With Davis using his speed to garner safety attention, Kirk should eat as the team’s WR1.
GABE DAVIS 2024 FANTASY OUTLOOK WITH JAGUARS
Gabe Davis has amassed an impressive tally of 33 touchdowns since his NFL debut in 2020. However, concerns arise when looking at his underlying efficiency metrics. Among 95 receivers with 150 or more targets, Davis ranks middlingly in key categories such as PFF receiving grade (57th), yards per route run (58th), and targets per route run (82nd).
The transition from catching bombs from Josh Allen to Trevor Lawrence might present another challenge for Davis, likely impacting his performance. As a result, The Wolf currently ranks Davis at WR50 (+2 vs ECR) on his 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings.
Given these factors, Davis will likely be a boom-or-bust, matchup-depending WR4/FLEX within an evolving passing attack that may not replicate his prior successes. Nonetheless, his presence in Jacksonville could create opportunities for other pass-catchers like Engram and Kirk, especially with Ridley gone.
Are we really going to buy into Daddy Davis again? No, not really. However, he’s going off the board at WR55 and 121.9 overall in early Underdog Best Ball drafts and always presents a few week-winning performances.
