Coming off of a masterclass 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, CJ Stroud has the opportunity to ascend into the true upper tier of 2024 fantasy football quarterbacks.
Stroud will undergo personal growth and development as a player, as will his young receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Aside from progress made within the Texans organization, Houston just made a big offseason splash, adding veteran receiver Stefon Diggs to its ascending supporting cast.
In a deal involving a second, fifth, and sixth-round pick, Diggs will join Stroud and the Texans.
With yet another weapon in the building, what can we expect from Stroud in 2024 fantasy football? Let’s first take a look back at Stroud’s rookie season in 2023.
STROUD’S 2023 FANTASY PERFORMANCE
No one will deny that Stroud solidified himself as one of the league’s promising young quarterbacks in 2023.
Stroud compiled an impressive overall stat line, compiling 4,108 yards and 23 passing touchdowns in 15 games. He also tacked on 167 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. This performance placed Stroud as the QB11 overall and the QB7 in fantasy points per game.
The underlying metrics from his 2023 also show he can compete at a high level. To name a few, Stroud ranked third in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, 12th in EPA/play, 14th in success rate, and 14th in PFF passing grade. These metrics don’t paint the whole picture but show that he could compete with established veterans in his rookie season.
The film shows the same thing.
Aside from film and metrics, Stroud showed one very promising characteristic in his rookie campaign. He was able to elevate his receivers and the offense as a whole.
Noah Brown, a player who had never posted a 100-yard game in his career, posted two consecutive games with 150+ receiving yards. Stroud made something out of nothing with Brown, a sign of a great quarterback.
Houston’s top receivers also missed time in 2023, with Collins missing two games and Dell missing six. Houston’s offense didn’t seem to miss a beat during these games, and the entirety of their playoff push occurred without Dell.
No matter how you look at it, Stroud’s 2023 performance suggests that the NFL will have a problem in 2024.
CJ STROUD’S 2024 FANTASY OUTLOOK
After looking phenomenal in 2023 and adding Diggs, not to mention Joe Mixon, the 2024 fantasy outlook for Stroud is promising, to say the least.
Before this trade, Stroud was going at the back of the sixth round as the QB6. It would not be shocking to see Stroud jump up to QB4, leapfrogging Anthony Richardson and Patrick Mahomes. This price would not be unreasonable at all. Stroud lacks the rushing production to compete for QB1 status, but his arsenal of weapons will certainly allow him to be the top pocket passer.
Speaking of his weapons, Stroud will have arguably the most talented arsenal in the league. The receivers include the previously mentioned Diggs, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins. Dalton Schultz will also make contributions through the air. Joe Mixon has also been a talented and dependable pass catcher throughout his career and was brought in to provide receiving production out of the backfield.
Stroud will certainly benefit from all of these talented receivers, but we should expect to see some philosophical changes in Houston that would benefit Stroud.
It should not be shocking, but Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans employed an offensive scheme focused on the rushing attack, especially early downs.
The Texans had a negative overall pass rate over expectation in 2023. Still, we should expect some changes in 2024, even though OC Bobby Slowik returned to Houston after garnering head coach buzz.
It will always be in Ryans’ nature to rely on the rushing attack. However, the offseason moves from the front office indicate that they understand that team success starts with their passing attack. Bringing in Mixon and Diggs clearly shows that the passing attack will be emphasized this season.
THE FINAL TAKE
This move will result in CJ Stroud flying up draft boards over the next few weeks. We will have to revisit Stroud’s fantasy price when it settles, but paying a QB4 price tag doesn’t seem unreasonable, at all. There is a very clear path for Stroud to be one of the league leaders in both yards and touchdowns.
Stroud doesn’t have the rushing upside to compete with the elite rushers in Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. However, Stroud holds the keys to one of the most frightening offenses in the NFL and that should absolutely get you fired up for his prospects in 2024.
Oh yeah, and don’t forget to sprinkle his MVP odds at +1200.
