Following a close to the 2023 season that was filled with underlying drama and uncertainty, a resolution has been found for star wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
In a move that comes as a shock to some, Diggs has been traded to the Houston Texans.
The deal includes 2nd and 6th round picks in 2024 as well as a 5th round pick in 2025, per Adam Schefter.
A move of this magnitude is bound to shake up draft boards in Underdog Bestball drafts and spark rankings debates throughout the summer. But what should our initial takeaways be from Diggs’ move to Houston?
MEET THE TEXANS WR ROOM
Diggs comes to Houston with a receiver room that features two young, talented receivers. Nico Collins and Tank Dell both burst onto the scene in 2023 thanks to the exceptional play of rookie QB CJ Stroud. An established veteran in Diggs is now in Houston, drastically altering the fantasy outlook for these receivers.
When it comes to fantasy production, we need to determine how will these three receivers be used and who will command the most targets. This is a difficult question to answer but let’s first take a look at the performance of each player in 2023.
Here is a quick look at some usage metrics for each player.
From this graphic, we can see that all three of these players are target earners as well as fantasy producers.
This move likely hurts all three receivers to a degree. Another talented receiver in the mix means a less concentrated target share for Collins and Dell. And it will be nearly impossible for Diggs to maintain the 30 percent target share he saw in Buffalo.
But how significantly does this move hurt each receiver?
NICO COLLINS OUTLOOK
In my opinion, Nico Collins takes a slight hit from this trade but should still be valued as a solid WR2 in fantasy. Currently being drafted as the WR9 in the early second round, I expect Collins to slip into the late second or third round as a WR2.
The only concern for Collins is that he plays a similar style of game and role to Diggs. As well as the obvious target competition that Diggs presents. Both players had fairly high aDOTs but were not pure field stretchers. However, it is worth noting that Collins proved to be a valuable deep threat when necessary, especially when Dell was off the field.
I expect Collins to be in a full-time role, playing in both two and three wide receiver sets. His production will come down to his ability to earn targets over Diggs and Dell. I don’t think he will have an issue doing this. Collins is a talented, dynamic receiver who has shown he can do whatever is asked of him.
Given his skillset, Collins should have no issues maintaining a significant role in this offense. At this point in time, Collins has a slight edge over Diggs and Dell.
TANK DELL OUTLOOK
The biggest question surrounding Tank Dell is his health. His 2023 season ended early with a broken fibula, but all reports indicate that his recovery is progressing well.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans shared the following, “We are expecting him to be back for our off-season workouts. Tank just has to be himself; nothing will change. I am happy to have him back and healthy.”
Assuming Dell is back at full strength to start the season, as we expect, he should reprise his role as the Texans deep-threat. Diggs’ arrival has very little impact on Tank’s role as the field stretcher. These downfield, high-value touches should still be heading towards Dell, allowing him to bolster his fantasy production with some big plays.
However, the arrival of Diggs does have some negative effects on Dell. First off, we should expect to see a reduction in volume and overall usage for Dell. But this should be expected for all three receivers. It also would not be surprising if Dell is not on the field for two receiver sets. Dell is incredibly small, not a great blocker, and clearly an injury risk when used as a blocker. It would make sense for the Texans to favor Diggs in this spot.
Tank Dell is a talented receiver who should be able to get plenty of looks from Stroud based on that talent. If he is able to convert on some big plays and maintain a respectable target share, Dell can certainly pay off as an early to mid-round receiver.
STEFON DIGGS OUTLOOK
Following a troublesome stretch to close the 2023 season, drafters have cooled on Stefon Diggs.
Going in the first round of most drafts last year, Diggs has slipped to the back of the second round this year as the WR15. Like these other two receivers, we should expect this price to drop in the near future. Many were already concerned with Diggs’ performance and a move to Houston with more target competition only creates larger issues.
The concerns surrounding Diggs are legitimate, with many pointing to his age (30) as the reason for his decline and others pointing to injury. Regardless of the true reason, Diggs had an incredibly weak finish to the year, failing to eclipse 100 yards in a game after Week 6.
Now with two talented, younger receivers to compete with, Diggs’ appears to be the biggest loser of the bunch. He leaves a situation where he was Josh Allen’s clear number one option and now joins what is arguably the best wide receiver room in the league.
Diggs will undoubtedly be a significant part of rosters as he will be drafted in the first few rounds. Given his cost and new competition, there are some legitimate red flags around Diggs.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not “out” on Stefon Diggs. But we must understand the differences between his situation in Buffalo versus Houston. CJ Stroud and the Houston offense provide any receiver with an opportunity to thrive. However, Diggs will have to get it done with more competition than he ever saw in Buffalo.
Keep tabs on The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Rankings to see where the Texans’ playmakers and CJ Stroud rank as the offseason progresses.
