2018 Fantasy Football: Week 4 Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em

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Do you want to know something scary? Since most leagues’ regular season ranges from twelve to thirteen weeks, we are practically a quarter of the way through the fantasy year. But let’s not dwell on the cold, empty void that is winter. Instead, we should focus our attention on our week-four lineups.

I am pleased with how last week’s predictions turned out. I hope you listened when I recommended starting guys like Jimmy Garoppolo, Kenny Golladay, Kyle Rudolph and George Kittle. However, there are two miscalls in particular I would like to apologize for. The first of which is Kirk Cousins, who, along with the majority of his teammates, was a dud last Sunday. I didn’t realize his game against the lowly Bills was being played in The Twilight Zone. Secondly, I failed to foresee Oakland holding Miami to a mere 39 offensive plays. Though they lost, the Raiders possessed the ball for over 38 minutes, which in turn limited Kenyan Drake to just seven touches for the day.

It is impossible to be correct 100% of the time and I will continue to own my mistakes. Every week my goal is to do better than I did the week before and that continues with this article today. I make these suggestions based on each player’s weekly matchups, surrounding talent and in-game usage. While predicting the future is anything but easy, using these tools can help us make better choices when determining which players we start or sit from week to week.

 

Start ‘Em

 

Quarterback

Philip Rivers:

A tough matchup against the Rams last week resulted in a so-so fantasy day from Rivers. He should be back to his highly productive self this Sunday against a 49ers defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. San Francisco has given up third-most passing touchdowns (8), the sixth-most passing yards per game (287.7) and is yet to intercept a pass.

Case Keenum:

I originally had Matt Ryan in this spot but decided that was too obvious. Instead, I’ll go out on a limb to highlight Keenum’s juicy matchup at home against the Chiefs. Kansas City has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the most passing yards per game (362.7) and has just one interception. The Chiefs lead the NFL with 39.3 points per game (PPG), which suggests that Keenum is in for a high-volume day throwing the ball in an effort to keep pace.

Running Back

Carlos Hyde:

Those who invested a mid-round pick in Hyde must be thrilled with their return. The former 49er has seen over 78% of Cleveland’s running back touches and has reached the endzone every week. This Sunday the Browns play a Raiders defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards per carry (YPC) to opposing rushers (5.1 YPC). Though rookie quarterback, Baker Mayfield, invigorated the offense during his Thursday night performance, expect the Browns to continue leaning on their running game.

Giovani Bernard:

With Joe Mixon sidelined, Bernard was the only Cincinnati running back to touch the ball last week. He played 88% of the offensive snaps and totaled 86 yards and a touchdown on seventeen touches. This Sunday he faces an Atlanta defense which has given up the third-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields. Mixon has been ruled out for this week, which catapults Bernard into the RB1 conversation.

Javorius Allen:

Though I like both Ravens running backs this week, Allen’s outlook is more promising due to his role as their receiving ‘back. Allen has seen almost double the number of targets that Alex Collins has, and has played more snaps than Collins thus far. This week Baltimore take the Steelers, who have averaged over 29 PPG over their last four meetings. I expect Allen to reach the endzone for a fourth-straight week in what is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair.

Wide Receiver

Emmanuel Sanders:

A 35-yard rushing touchdown saved what was otherwise an underwhelming performance from Sanders last week. He will have far more success through the air Monday against Kansas City, who has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers (PPR). Sanders leads the Broncos in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, and will continue to be a key contributor in Denver’s attempt to keep up with the high-scoring Chiefs.

John Brown:

It’s time to stop sleeping on “Smokey” Brown. The former Cardinal is leading the Ravens in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and catches of twenty yards or more. This week Baltimore will have to deploy a pass-heavy attack in order to outscore Pittsburgh, who is averaging 29.3 PPG. No team has given up more touchdown passes than the Steeler, who are also allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Sterling Shepard:

New Orleans’ defense has surrendered the most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing wide receivers, including a league-high nine touchdowns. This bodes well for Shepard, who racked up six catches for 80 yards and a score last week against Houston. Shepard’s outlook is aided further by an injury to tight end, Evan Engram, who is likely to miss several weeks. The Giants will have to score in bunches should they wish to top the high-scoring Saints (34.7 PPG).

Tight End

Trey Burton:

I have been unimpressed by Mitch Trubisky this season but even he should be productive at home against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers’ defense has allowed the highest completion percentage through three weeks (77.9%) and has given up the most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends. The position is a wasteland this year, but I like Burton more than most tight ends this week.

David Njoku:

Mayfield jumpstarted Cleveland’s offense last week and I expect that to continue against Oakland. That includes properly utilizing Njoku’s freakish athletic ability. After accumulating just 33 yards on seven catches through the first two weeks, Njoku racked up 36 yards on two catches in week three with Mayfield. The rookie quarterback targeted his tight end heavily in college, which should benefit Njoku moving forward.

Defense

Los Angeles Chargers:

Second-year quarterback, C.J. Beathard, is now starting for San Francisco after Garoppolo tore his ACL. The 49ers scored thirteen or fewer points in four of the five games Beathard started last season. The Chargers should be able to beat up on a decimated 49ers offense this week in Los Angeles.

Philadelphia Eagles:

Philly’s defense has surrendered the eighth-fewest points and yards thus far in 2018. Meanwhile, the Titans have scored the third-fewest points and have mustered up the fourth-fewest yards. To put it simply, Tennessee is outmatched this week.

 

Sit ‘Em

 

Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick:

I’m calling it now. This is the week “Fitzmagic” is exposed as merely an illusionist. Although he still threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns on Monday night, the three interceptions he tossed revealed a few cracks in his armor. This week the Bucs travel up north to play a Bears defense that leads the league in sacks (14) and is second in turnovers forced (8).

Blake Bortles:

After throwing for 376 yards and four touchdowns in week-two, Bortles managed 155 yards and zero scores last week against the Titans. Bortles’ weekly outlook can drastically differ depending on who he is playing. This week he faces a Jets defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. NYJ has given up the sixth-fewest passing yards in the NFL and only the Seahawks and Dolphins have picked off more passes.

Running Back

Jay Ajayi:

A small fracture in his back caused Ajayi to miss last week’s contest versus the Colts. The veteran will attempt to play through the pain this week against a Titans defense that has surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields. Ajayi has played over 50% of the offensive snaps just once since joining the Eagles, making him a touchdown dependent RB2. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-fewest points so far this season and is one of only three teams yet to give up a rushing touchdown.

Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis:

Henry makes this list for the second week in a row and this time his teammate joins him. The reason being that Philadelphia is just damn near impossible to run against. They’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL, the fourth-fewest YPC and the second-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields.

Isaiah Crowell:

In his two games since the Jets embarrassed the Lions on Monday Night Football, Crowell has averaged just 2.4 YPC. This week New York travels to Jacksonville to face a defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields. The only rushing touchdown the Jaguars have surrendered was a 68-yard run from rookie phenom, Saquon Barkley. Crowell is touchdown dependent, and I wouldn’t depend on him for anything against this defense.

Wide Receiver

Chris Hogan:

The last time I put Hogan on this list he burned me with two second-half touchdowns while trailing to Jacksonville. I’ll take my chances again this week as New England faces a Miami defense that has allowed the eleventh-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing wide receivers. The Dolphins have the most interceptions in the NFL (7) while also allowing the fewest touchdown passes (2). Since the start of 2016, Hogan has averaged three receptions, 29 yards and zero touchdowns per game in his three outings versus Miami.

Quincy Enunwa:

After an impressive week-one debut, Sam Darnold has completed just 55.5% of his passes, and has a 1/4 touchdown to interception ratio. Consequently, Enunwa’s fantasy output has dipped in each proceeding week. This Sunday the Jets visit Jacksonville to play a defense that has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers.

Marquise Goodwin:

Garoppolo’s season ending injury hurts the 49ers’ entire offense, as second-year quarterback, C.J. Beathard, now leads the passing attack. Goodwin averaged 2.2 catches per game over Beathard’s five starts last year, as opposed to 5.8 catches per game during Garoppolo’s five starts. I suggest a wait and see approach when determining the current value of San Francisco’s weapons.

Tight End

Jared Cook:

After blowing up for nine catches and 180 yards in week-one, Cook has totaled nine receptions for 80 yards over his past two games combined. This week he faces a Browns defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends. Oakland’s two touchdown passes are tied for the fewest in the NFL. I expect the Raiders’ struggles to continue against Cleveland, who leads the NFL in turnovers forced, and has surrendered the third-fewest amount of touchdown passes (3).

George Kittle:

Like Goodwin, Kittle is another casualty of Garoppolo’s injury. Kittle averaged over 25 less yards per game with Beathard last season than he did with Jimmy G. On the road against a Chargers defense that has given up the second-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends, Kittle belongs on your bench this week.

Defense

Denver Broncos:

Kansas City’s offense seems unstoppable. They lead the NFL in points per game (39.3), have committed the fewest turnovers (1), and are seventh in yards per game (398.3). All three defenses to play the Chiefs thus far have scored negative fantasy points, and Denver appears to be next in line.

Baltimore Ravens:

This is another case of a solid defense facing a prolific offense. This week the Ravens travel to Heinz Field, where the Steelers average 7.7 more points per game since the start of the 2017 season than they do on the road. Pittsburgh has racked up the third-most yards per game (453.3) and the seventh-most points per game (29.3) so far this year.

 

 

Author

  • Fantasy football writer for Roto Street Journal. Freelance writer, Senior Podcast Producer and Production Assistant for FOX59 and CBS4. Indiana University graduate class of 2016. Follow on Twitter @fasttakefantasy

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