NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 13

Take our advice and beat your bookie.

Coming off a couple of great weeks of NFL football, we’re back at it again with some great matchups this weekend. Playoff races are starting to take shape, and we’re starting to learn who’s for real and who will be watching from their couches in January.

Roto Street has been bringing you the best in fantasy football news all season, but I’m here to bring you a different side of off-field fun: gambling. Now, I’m no expert; I’m just a college student throwing down enough bets every week to fund my weekend activities. Regardless, I’ll tell you everything you need to know and make my recommendations so you can be a Vegas expert. And we’ll start with the…

Obligatory Patriots spread

I’m a diehard Pats fan, so regardless of the week I’m gonna hit you with my Patriots pick every week. This week brings in the 4-7 LA Rams, who are currently 13-point underdogs to Bill’s Boys, probably primarily because their coach doesn’t even know who the Pats will have in their backfield on Sunday. And despite the steep spread, I’m taking the Pats to cover here. In the last 3 weeks we’ve had a loss, a very slow start on the road in San Fran, and a nail biter in The Meadowlands over the Jets last week. Bill’s gonna have these guys ready to play right from the opening whistle, no matter where Gronk is shotgunning beers at gametime. The Rams have a decent offense and it’s anyone’s guess if Jared Goff will be able to move the ball on New England’s D, and I won’t lie and tell you the combo of Gurley on the ground and Britt through the air doesn’t scare me just a little, but regardless I’m expecting some crooked numbers from TB12 on Sunday. Pats cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5) at Atlanta Falcons

 This one could certainly be interesting. Aside from the obvious — both teams are in the playoff hunt, have solid quarterbacks, etc. — Atlanta has given up the 9th most sacks in the league, and the country learned last week in Denver what a sack machine Justin Houston can be when healthy (3 sacks last week in his 2nd game back from a knee injury). KC’s defense as a whole is a strong unit that leads the NFL with a +14 turnover ratio, and that defense will be tested against one of the most prolific offenses in football. Matt Ryan is making a case for an MVP this year, and he’ll look to utilize Julio Jones — arguably the best receiver in the game — in this one. But in the end, I’m looking at last week’s primetime win on the road in Denver and seeing Kansas City as a legitimate force; I know, it’s weird. I’m picking KC.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Houston is 6-5, Green Bay is 5-6, and neither team is as good/bad as their record implies. Houston’s 6 wins are against teams with a combined 30-37 record, and Brock Osweiler is currently 25th in the NFL in QBR. JJ Watt is still recovering, and the Texans defense is sorely missing him up front, although the secondary has been solid thus far. Green Bay has certainly underachieved so far this year, and the reasons can be found all over the place; Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been himself, and he struggled early on to develop the necessary chemistry with his receivers, especially after Jordy Nelson missed all of last year with that ACL. But the Pack are definitely coming around, and they’re near the top of the league in stopping the run, leading me to believe they can slow down Lamar Miller out of the backfield. Especially at Lambeau in December, it’s hard to go against the Pack here.

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3)

I’ll tell you one thing: if I’m the Raiders, I’m using that line as bulletin board material. 3-point favorites? Against Buffalo? AT HOME? I don’t know what it’s gonna take for Oakland to get the respect they deserve as a legit title contender. Yep, I said it. Title contender. I’ve been saying for a while now that Oakland is the only AFC team I’m really afraid of as a Pats fan, and it’s still the case; Derek Carr is the NFL MVP right now, Latavius Murray is a grossly underrated back, and Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree headline a strong, deep receiving core. Add in Khalil Mack and a defense that’s 3rd in the league in turnover differential, and you’ve got a legit contender in the AFC. Now, this isn’t to say Buffalo is gonna roll over here; after all, this is a Rex Ryan team. Tyrod Taylor is continuing to improve his passing, and they’ve got a top-10 defense, but it really stops there. LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins haven’t been able to stay healthy, and the Bills haven’t had a ton of success on the road. I’m taking Oakland by at least a touchdown.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

All I can think about is what a showdown this would’ve been last year. Damn, what a showdown. The Panthers had an MVP at QB, a stifling defense, and dominated all the way through the NFC. But Carolina is a different team this year, and in this case different = worse. Newton isn’t what he once was, and the return of Kelvin Benjamin has done little to jumpstart that offense. Meanwhile, the loss of Josh Norman has hurt worse than they thought it would, and the defense is now 27th against the pass after finishing 11th last year. Now, Seattle hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations either, but they’re coming around as of late; despite last week’s UGLY loss to Tampa, Seattle is 7-3-1 and sitting in 1st place in the disappointing NFC West. Russell Wilson has improved his play as of late, and even though they’re a bit thin at running back, that defense is always going to bail them out. Richard Sherman is playing like a top corner, Bobby Wagner is leading the NFL in tackles, and Earl Thomas is doing a lot more than just lighting up Gronk like a Christmas tree. Factor in that home field advantage in a primetime game, and it’s hard to pick against Seattle here.

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at New York Jets

 God I bet the NFL wishes they could flex this somewhere else. What a recipe for a brutally boring primetime game. Two offenses that could have a map to the end zone and still get lost, against a couple of average defenses. The crazy thing is, as bad as the Colts have been this year, they’re still in the playoff hunt because of that garbage AFC South. Andrew Luck will play after missing Indy’s Thanksgiving game with a concussion, and guys like T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief will benefit greatly from his health. He may not be 100%, but I’ll take a semi-healthy Luck over a fully healthy Ryan Fitzpatrick any day; wouldn’t’ you? Fitz was great for the Jets last year, but he’s underachieved this year and failed to utilize the weapons he has in Brandon Marshall, Quincy Enunwa, and Matt Forte. The Jets are at home and coming off a tough divisional loss, so they’ll be ready to play, but Indy’s just gonna be too much for them. Indy by at least a field goal.

And that concludes my picks. Have a great weekend, and good luck out there.

Dad Joke of the Week

“Hey, did you hear about the fire at the circus?”

“No, why?”

“Oh, man, it was in tents.”

Author

  • Fan of Boston sports, hazy IPAs, and chicken pot pie. Frequent user of obscure movie quotes that nobody else finds funny.

Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
LinkedIn

Related Posts