Week 8 is upon us and unfortunately, we are right at the halfway point of the fantasy football season. Here are some fantasy thoughts from the first seven weeks and how some will translate to the second half of the season:
1. Melvin Gordon is the only non-kicker in the top 13 of total points scored this year
Melvin Gordon’s NFL best 10 touchdowns has him 6th overall in total (non-fantasy) points scored. He’s only putting up 3.3 yards per carry, but is 4th in the league in attempts and has zero competition for touches out of the San Diego backfield. Your first thought might be to sit Gordon this week against the “vaunted” Denver D, but Denver is actually 23rd in yards allowed and tied for 14th in rushing TDs allowed. Gordon’s work might not be pretty, but it’s highly effective.
2. Greg Olsen is a better fantasy option than Rob Gronkowski
Gronk is an animal and his GF is pure smoke, but unfortunately that doesn’t win you fantasy matchups. First, Olsen hasn’t missed a game since 2007. Second, he’s on pace to have the best season of his career. Last season, Olsen set career highs in yards ( 1,104) and targets (123), and assuming he stays healthy, he is going to smash those marks. In just six games he’s already piled up 610 yards — which is 55% of his production from last season and puts him on pace for 1,626 yards). Obviously, no one thinks he’s breaking 1,500 yards, but with Carolina’s current offense deficiencies, there is no reason to think Olsen will not continue to be a fantasy monster. Olsen over Gronk, rest of season.
3. Josh Lambo is a difference maker
Lambo is owned in just 38.5% of all ESPN leagues, but is the No. 2 kicker in fantasy right now — the No. 1 is Adam Vinatieri who is is owned in 98.2% of ESPN leagues. San Diego is 4th in the NFL in field goals attempted and 5th in extra points attempted. Lambo is perfect on the point after, and yet to miss from inside 50 yards. All too often fantasy GMs disregard kickers and defenses, but it’s the details that separate great fantasy GMs from good ones. #KickersLivesMatter.
4. Sell Marvin Jones Jr.
RSJ was super high on Marvin Jones to start the year and if you listened you should be thanking us, but now it’s time to sell. Since his monster Week 2 game in Green Bay -– 205 yards and 2 touchdowns -– he’s only bested 75 yards once and has just 2 touchdowns. Not only are the stats down, but so are the targets. After having 29 targets in the first three weeks, he’s only been thrown at 23 times over the last four games and his schedule isn’t getting any easier –- @HOU, @MIN, BYE, JAX, MIN. The total receiving yards still look nice -– 623 yards (5th best in the NFL) — but he’s 26th in total targets (52), and 24th in receptions (33). Time to sell on Jones while you can still get good value.
5. Drew Brees is the best fantasy quarterback in the league
I know this seems like a no brainer, but for some reason Brees has fallen out of the elite fantasy conversation and that is just plain blasphemy. Pre-season he was ranked as QB5 and had an ADP of 46. Now, he’s currently QB3 behind Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck, but that’s based on total points –- Brees already had his bye while Ryan and Luck have not. If you reorder by points per game, Brees jumps to QB1 — a full point ahead of Ryan, 2 ahead of Luck. I won’t lie, being a Brees owner I fell victim to trying to be too cute and started Ryan over Brees Week 7 based on match ups and it cost me a win. It doesn’t matter who Brees is playing, he’s always the best option. Honestly, now that he’s had his bye, drop or trade any other QB on your roster just so you’re not tempted to do something stupid.
There you have it. Good luck and we’ll see you in the second half.