Boy, howdy. Week 3 really muddied the water. Every week, experts look for a player’s “game-changing” emergence, bending backward for players like Isaiah Likely and Cam Akers.
At the same time, the stock market does flip, trying to figure out the shifting landscape of the fantasy world. Every week, the “league winner” doesn’t emerge, making the stock behind players even more volatile and leading fantasy owners to become more and more impulsive. What does this all lead to? Hype.
If you have tuned into my previous hype articles, you’ll know that hype dictates the trade market, the waiver process, and everything else we do in the fantasy world. The fine folks at Rotostreet Journal have hooked me up with some of the finest (and cheapest) minds in the scientific community to create the “Hype Meter” gauge and “Credibility Score” meter to sort out what hype is worth buying into, what negative hype is worth taking advantage of, and how to move forward with decisions in our weekly navigation of fantasy football.
BUCKY IRVING, RB TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Bucky Irving is starting to check many of the boxes that fantasy experts were looking for during the preseason, and it is beginning to raise the hype behind him. Week three marked two significant milestones for Irving and his fantasy outlook: he got his first carry inside the red zone and out-carried Rachaad White 9-6. If you read my “Early Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets” article yesterday, you’ll know that folks at RSJ have been “in” on Irving for quite some time.
Back in February, RSJ Duck gave us a glimpse into the prospect of Bucky Irving, outlining his pass-catching ability, incredible forced missed tackle percentage in 2022 of 17.2%, and comparing his elusiveness to players like Matt Forte and Danny Woodhead.
The Wolf is even showing off his stock in Bucky:
The stats support a more significant role for Bucky in the upcoming weeks.
In the first three weeks, Rachaad White has seen his snaps diminish every week, resulting in fewer carries and fewer yards gained on the ground.
2.12 yards per carry. Rule of thumb: if the YPC is lower than the average high schooler’s GPA, get out of there!
In the same games, check out Bucky Irving’s usage:
Don’t get me wrong, not the most incredible usage, but over six yards a carry and showing usage in the passing game? Count me in.
Buy into Bucky before the hype gets crazy in the upcoming weeks.
MARK ANDREWS, TE BALTIMORE RAVENS
It’s a safe space here… we can admit some mistakes. Week 1, I correctly told you not to buy into Isaiah Likely‘s hype. Still, I incorrectly told you it was because Mark Andrews would be back to catching passes from Lamar Jackson and making Likely irrelevant.
I believed this because Andrews was still playing most of the snaps and running more routes than Likely, even when not being targeted. Week 2 had some promise, but Week 3 absolutely shattered the trust of fantasy owners of Andrews to a point where you may not be comfortable starting Andrews for a while.
Three weeks into the season, Andrews has amassed eight receptions for 65 yards, a stat line that took him five quarters to eclipse last season. Most shockingly, the Week 3 matchup against the Cowboys saw Andrews take only 20 snaps and only ran four routes. The same defense I had for Andrews of routes run in Week 1 is quickly flipping to an argument against him moving into Week 4. Even more weird, it isn’t because Isaiah Likely is going off, either.
The hype is all the way down with Andrews, and our scientists in the lab have high confidence in his lowered stock in fantasy experts’ rankings. Between injury concerns, the emergence of Isaiah Likely, and Todd Monken’s run-heavy attachment, there are simply too many obstructions for us to start Andrews with any confidence moving forward.
JK DOBBINS, RB LA CHARGERS
Suppose you’ve been following along during the offseason. In that case, many experts, including our own, have called for the lead ball carrier for the Los Angeles Chargers to be a valuable addition to your 2024 fantasy football team. Unfortunately for the Wolf and me, we took a gamble on the wrong RB in Gus Edwards.
If Wolf ever needs a serving of humble pie after finishing on the top of the charts of accurate rankings, I’ll toss him this line from his “My Guys” article:
“JK Dobbins is impressing in camp off his Achilles tear, but literally no one has ever rebounded just one season after.”
Well… shit.
Usually, with the rise of hype that we see with Dobbins, I’d be telling you to sell high and let the losers hold the bag, but the stats that our incredible scientist team put together here in the RSJ labs reflect buying into this hype and riding it to success.
Dobbins hype is running through the roof for quite a few reasons. He had split carries with Gus Edwards weekly and gained him in previous weeks. However, things changed in their Week 3 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In their 20-10 loss to the Steelers, Dobbins carried Edwards 15-3 and saw Edwards get shut out in the passing game for the second week in a row.
Everything about the opportunity of the Chargers backfield was true, but members of the Wolf Pack may have just bought into the wrong player. See if you can snag Dobbins after a lackluster Week 3 and lock up your RB2 spot for the rest of the season.
JAUAN JENNINGS, WR SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 2024 fantasy football season has taught me one thing: we all are just guessing at times. If you decided to buy in on Jauan Jennings in Week 3, you would have bigger plums than I do, but good God, did it pay off!
Jennings took the opportunity of being the WR2 (more on that in a second) of the 49ers and ran with it, putting up nearly half of my RSJ expert Week 3 fantasy team output (shout out Tony Pollard, Jordan Whittington, and the Raiders DEF).
One of the most impressive stats behind this stat line was the efficiency with which he put up these monstrous numbers. His 11 receptions came on 12 targets, and his 175 yards came gradually, where his longest reception for the week was only 35 yards.
Many experts are calling for Jennings to hold relevance as long as he stays the WR2 on the 49ers but are not investing in the possibility of his relevance once Deebo Samuel returns. However, the scientists in our RSJ labs see more potential even with Samuel returning.
If you ask any Brandon Aiyuk fantasy owner, this season has not been the breakout many hoped for, especially in a season that sees both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle missing time. Hell, even the 49ers believe in Aiyuk, handing him $30 million yearly for the next four years. However, Jennings has shown to be a thorn in the side of Aiyuk owners in the two games they have played together this season. Jennings has one more target in three games than Aiyuk and has seen more snaps than in previous years.
Although the hype may be astronomical for this player, you can get him for cheap FAAB off your waivers if he is still available. Many will read columns from the so-called experts at Yahoo and ESPN who think his value will plummet when Deebo returns. Still, you may be able to have a spot-start sitting on your bench when Deebo returns or a weekly starter when Aiyuk/Samuel inevitably sits in future games.
TRAVIS KELCE, TE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Nearly bookending an article with washed-up TEs, let’s go! The folks in the lab, however, feel a bit different about Travis Kelce than they did Mark Andrews.
Kelce finished week 3 with another disappointing line of 4 receptions (a season-high, gross) for 30 yards and no touchdowns. This was not due to a lack of snaps or routes running, so what is the problem?
Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes have shown the football world one thing that has infuriated the NFL world every season: they are fine winning ugly. They do not care if wins come from breakout performances like Xavier Worthy in Week 1, by limiting Mahomes to 150 passing yards and having Isaiah Pacheco and Carson Steele run the ball continuously in Week 2, or by implementing death by 1000 paper cuts like Rashee Rice‘s performance in Week 3.
Simply put, Kelce will have his weeks in this offense, and there will be games that Mahomes needs to open up the offense more. Over the past two seasons, Mahomes has averaged 284 passing yards per game, which he has only eclipsed once this season.
If you can find a Kelce owner freaking out in any of your leagues, try to find a decent price for him and buy into the lack of hype surrounding the player. Tight Ends suck anyways, you might as well have one that has a proven track record.
