Man, does the NFL love a good storyline or what? In Super Wild Card Weekend, fans will see six games across three days, with many teams having much to prove.
Matthew Stafford is returning to try to upset Detroit, where he spent the first 12 years of his career, and spoil the Lions’ potential first playoff win since 1991. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy is hosting his former team, Green Bay, where he spent 13 seasons. Cleveland is kicking off the weekend in Houston, looking to avoid being embarrassed again by the team who traded them Deshaun Watson – one of the worst trades in NFL history?
Knowing storylines helps when placing bets, especially in the top sports leagues. What maximizes viewership? What’s a better feel-good story? How can the NFL maximize profit? The NFL also doesn’t want to lose viewership by not having close games, which is why you don’t normally see blowouts even if, on paper, it should be.
Not to say the NFL is scripted, but if you believe it or it seems like a league is playing one way, you can play back. These are just a few, but some of the top bets I would place, for Super Wild Card Saturday.
Editor’s Note: Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
No. 5 Cleveland Browns @ No. 4 Houston Texans
Point Spread: Cleveland -2
Moneyline: Cleveland -136
Total: 44.5 points
Weather at Kickoff: 66 degrees, 2% chance rain precipitation, Winds S 15mph
We already mentioned the Deshaun Watson drama, and if you’re looking to place wagers, you already know it’ll be veteran quarterback Joe Flacco at the helm Saturday afternoon. Coming off the couch, looking to make a playoff run and upset his former Baltimore team potentially next week (more on that later) is on his mind. No Nick Chubb, no problem. Cleveland has had the odds against it all season, but is finally seeing some love in the postseason against a rookie Houston quarterback and first-year head coach.
FANDUEL BET OF THE GAME:
Joe Flacco Over 272.5 Passing Yards
Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Amari Cooper Anytime Touchdown Scorer
C.J. Stroud Over 243.5 Passing Yards
Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Jerome Ford Anytime Touchdown Scorer
+2460
Our Prediction: Place Bet
Flacco is averaging 323.2 yards per game this season with zero games under 1.5 touchdowns. CJ Stroud averages 273.9 yards per game and does not have a touchdown requirement. With an up-and-down run game, likely chasing points, Stroud should be viewed as a lock.
Additionally, Amari Cooper had 11 catches (16 targets) for 265 yards and two touchdowns against Houston in Week 16. He only has five scores on the year, but has missed time due to injury. If Cleveland wants to win, it needs Cooper. Additionally, Nico Collins stepped into the No. 1 receiver conversation as early as Week 2 this year. Without Tank Dell, Collins has scored five touchdowns and is one of the best receivers in the league when it comes to catch rate. Jerome Ford, who took over after the Chubb injury, could be the only healthy RB, who is used as a true workhorse in Cleveland’s offense.
OTHER TOP BETS
Anytime Touchdown Scorers:
David Njoku (+185), Dalton Schultz (+280), Joe Flacco (+1600).
Game Specials:
Devin Singletary or Jerome Ford to Score the First TD (+260)
Each Team to Score 1+ Rushing TDs & 1+ Passing TDs (+300)
Houston Texans Special Teams to Score a TD (+2800)
Any Quarter to End Scoreless (+300)
Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Nico Collins Combine for 4+ TDs (+2000)
BETS TO AVOID:
Anytime Touchdown Scorers:
Elijah Moore (+300), Dameon Pierce (+500), Brevin Jordan (+750)
Game Specials:
Any Correct Score Bet
Amari Cooper 50+ Receiving Yards in Each Half (+700)
Each Team to Score in All Four Quarters (+1300)
Both Joe Flacco and C.J. Stroud to Each Complete 25+ Passes (+650)
Kareem Hunt 25+ Rushing Yards in Each Half (+1400)
Most Passing Yards of Game: Joe Flacco (-196)
*RSJ compiled this list based on full regular season stats and spread return.
WHAT WE’RE BETTING
Browns to cover, Browns moneyline, and Over 44.5 points.
No. 6 Miami Dolphins @ No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread: Kansas City -4.5
Moneyline: Kansas City -236
Total: 44.5 points
Weather at Kickoff: -7 degrees, 4% snow precipitation, Winds WNW 13mph
The injury bug is real for Miami, who has signed multiple edge rushers this week on a short week before a playoff game. If that’s not bad enough, the Dolphins are on a losing skid, lost the division when it controlled its own destiny, and could be playing the coldest NFL playoff game in history. Yes, history. Kansas City is reported to be -7 degrees at kickoff with a real-feel of -20. The Chiefs are more used to frigid temperatures, but below zero will impact both teams regardless.
Additionally, the next biggest storyline in the game is Tyreek Hill’s return to Kansas City. The two team’s regular season matchup was the NFL’s Germany game, marking the first time Hill will play in Kansas City since being traded to Miami. But, that doesn’t mean he’ll polish off a big game. However, that could change if Jaylen Waddle misses a third straight game.
FANDUEL BET OF THE GAME:
Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown Scorer
+2885
Our Prediction: Do Not Place Bet
Seeing the big names on both teams with the requirement of only scoring a touchdown is tempting. However, Raheem Mostert remains questionable to play after missing the previous two games and could concede a lot of work to De’Von Achane if not completely healthy. The Hill touchdown bet is worrisome because of the weather and him playing a defense that should have a leg up on defending him after doing so daily for six seasons at practice. Hill can have a big game without scoring.
OTHER TOP BETS
Anytime Touchdown Scorers:
Isiah Pacheco (-115), Travis Kelce (+115), De’Von Achane (+175), Justin Watson (+330), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (+650), Chiefs Defense (+700), Dolphins Defense (+950).
Game Specials:
Isiah Pacheco to score 2+ touchdowns (+550)
De’Von Achane to score 2+ touchdowns (+1400)
Travis Kelce 25+ Receiving Yards in Each Half (+260)
Tyreek Hill 50+ Receiving Yards in Each Half (+470)
Any Quarter to End Scoreless (+290)
Patrick Mahomes 25+ Rushing Yards in Each Half (+2000)
BETS TO AVOID:
Anytime Touchdown Scorers:
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+550), Kadarius Toney (+800), Braxton Berrios (+1000), River Cracraft (+1700)
Game Specials:
Any Correct Score Bet
Each Team to Score 1+ Rushing TDs & 1+ Passing TDs (+330)
Kansas City Chiefs to Record 5+ Sacks vs Miami Dolphins (+600)
Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa to Combine for 600+ Passing Yards (+600)
Both Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa to Each Complete 25+ Passes (+750)
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to Combine for 250+ Receiving Yards (+850)
Miami Dolphins to Record 5+ Sacks vs Kansas City Chiefs (+1000)
Each Team to Score in All Four Quarters (+1100)
1+ TDs to be Scored in Each Quarter (+165)
Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to Combine for 4+ TDs (+1000)
WHAT WE’RE BETTING
Dolphins to cover, Chiefs moneyline and Under 44.5 points.
