Welcome to our fantasy football Week 4 buy-low, sell-high based on our Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) model. It’s never too early to start dealin’, and it’s actually a great time to take advantage of overreactive and desperate leaguemates.
Expected fantasy points essentially show what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of xFP, click here.
The main purpose of using the xFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers and buy players who see plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.
For a more general overview of our very own Jackson Barrett’s trading strategy, click here. In addition, we publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.
Below, you can find xFP data for each player, including average carries, targets, and air yards. And below the chart, you’ll find our Week 4 players to buy-low and sell-high, based on the xFP model.
Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.
Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players we want to buy low and sell high in Week 4.
| Player | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.NACUA, LA | WR | 3 | 21.4 | 24.9 | -3.5 | 0.7 | 14 | 116 |
| A.EKELER, LAC | RB | 1 | 26.4 | 24.8 | 1.6 | 16 | 5 | 23 |
| T.HILL, MIA | WR | 3 | 30.1 | 24.4 | 5.7 | 0 | 11.7 | 160 |
| J.JEFFERSON, MIN | WR | 3 | 25.6 | 24.3 | 1.3 | 0 | 12.7 | 137.3 |
| K.ALLEN, LAC | WR | 3 | 30.3 | 24 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 13 | 112 |
| D.ADAMS, LV | WR | 3 | 25.1 | 23.6 | 1.5 | 0 | 12.3 | 141.3 |
| T.POLLARD, DAL | RB | 3 | 19.1 | 23.5 | -4.4 | 20.7 | 4.7 | -1 |
| J.MEYERS, LV | WR | 2 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 111.5 |
| A.MATTISON, MIN | RB | 3 | 11.9 | 20.6 | -8.7 | 13 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| M.PITTMAN, IND | WR | 3 | 18 | 20.4 | -2.4 | 0 | 11.3 | 67.3 |
| K.WILLIAMS, LA | RB | 3 | 18 | 20.4 | -2.4 | 13 | 6.3 | 8 |
| C.OLAVE, NO | WR | 3 | 17.4 | 20.1 | -2.7 | 0 | 10.7 | 124 |
| J.CHASE, CIN | WR | 3 | 14.4 | 19.8 | -5.4 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 89 |
| S.DIGGS, BUF | WR | 3 | 19.6 | 19.7 | -0.1 | 0 | 10.7 | 97 |
| A.BROWN, PHI | WR | 3 | 14.6 | 19.3 | -4.7 | 0 | 10 | 115.7 |
| M.SANDERS, CAR | RB | 3 | 12.2 | 19 | -6.8 | 13.7 | 6.7 | 9 |
| M.EVANS, TB | WR | 3 | 21.6 | 18.8 | 2.8 | 0 | 9.3 | 126.7 |
| K.WALKER, SEA | RB | 3 | 19.9 | 18.8 | 1.1 | 15.7 | 3.3 | -5.3 |
| Z.MOSS, IND | RB | 2 | 21.6 | 18.6 | 3 | 24 | 3.5 | 5 |
| C.MCCAFFREY, SF | RB | 3 | 23.8 | 18.4 | 5.4 | 20 | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| S.BARKLEY, NYG | RB | 2 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 0 | 14.5 | 5.5 | 6 |
| D.SAMUEL, SF | WR | 3 | 19.5 | 18.2 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 9.3 | 66 |
| T.HIGGINS, CIN | WR | 3 | 11 | 18.2 | -7.2 | 0 | 9.3 | 121 |
| J.JACOBS, LV | RB | 3 | 10 | 17.9 | -7.9 | 15 | 4.7 | 9.3 |
| T.ATWELL, LA | WR | 3 | 16.8 | 17.5 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 8.7 | 112.7 |
| A.ST. BROWN, DET | WR | 3 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 9.3 | 81.7 |
| T.HOCKENSON, MIN | TE | 3 | 17 | 17.3 | -0.3 | 0 | 9.3 | 58 |
| B.ROBINSON, ATL | RB | 3 | 17.2 | 16.8 | 0.4 | 13 | 5.7 | -6 |
| C.RIDLEY, JAX | WR | 3 | 12.1 | 16.4 | -4.3 | 0 | 8.7 | 90.7 |
| T.KELCE, KC | TE | 2 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 8.5 | 53.5 |
| M.WILLIAMS, LAC | WR | 3 | 16.7 | 16.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 8.7 | 102.3 |
| Z.FLOWERS, BAL | WR | 3 | 13.8 | 16 | -2.2 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 40.3 |
| A.COOPER, CLE | WR | 3 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 | 134.3 |
| M.THOMAS, NO | WR | 3 | 11.5 | 15.8 | -4.3 | 0 | 8.7 | 70 |
| K.BOURNE, NE | WR | 3 | 13.3 | 15.6 | -2.3 | 0 | 8.3 | 121 |
| E.MOORE, CLE | WR | 3 | 9.4 | 15.6 | -6.2 | 2 | 8.3 | 64.7 |
| R.STEVENSON, NE | RB | 3 | 12.4 | 15.5 | -3.1 | 15.3 | 4.3 | -2.7 |
| A.THIELEN, CAR | WR | 3 | 18.4 | 15.5 | 2.9 | 0 | 8.3 | 68.7 |
| R.MOSTERT, MIA | RB | 3 | 28 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 3.3 | -4.7 |
| J.COOK, BUF | RB | 3 | 14.5 | 15.3 | -0.8 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 8 |
| R.WHITE, TB | RB | 3 | 11.8 | 15.3 | -3.5 | 16 | 3.3 | -9 |
| D.HOPKINS, TEN | WR | 3 | 9.8 | 15.3 | -5.5 | 0 | 8.3 | 92.3 |
| C.LAMB, DAL | WR | 3 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 8 | 61 |
| R.WOODS, HOU | WR | 3 | 10.5 | 15.1 | -4.6 | 0 | 8.3 | 79.7 |
| C.SUTTON, DEN | WR | 3 | 14.6 | 15 | -0.4 | 0 | 7.7 | 73.3 |
| T.ETIENNE, JAX | RB | 3 | 15.1 | 15 | 0.1 | 16.3 | 4.3 | -5.7 |
| M.BROWN, ARI | WR | 3 | 14.4 | 15 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 77.3 |
| A.JONES, GB | RB | 1 | 26.7 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 9 | 4 | -4 |
| D.HENRY, TEN | RB | 3 | 11.5 | 14.6 | -3.1 | 17 | 2.3 | -10.3 |
| J.CONNER, ARI | RB | 3 | 16.1 | 14.6 | 1.5 | 17 | 2.7 | -8 |
| J.MIXON, CIN | RB | 3 | 12.6 | 14.6 | -2 | 15 | 4 | -10.7 |
| J.DOWNS, IND | WR | 3 | 9.1 | 14.5 | -5.4 | 0 | 8 | 39.3 |
| I.PACHECO, KC | RB | 3 | 11.1 | 14.4 | -3.3 | 11.7 | 3 | -8.7 |
| N.COLLINS, HOU | WR | 3 | 15.7 | 14.2 | 1.5 | 0 | 7.7 | 96.7 |
| J.REED, GB | WR | 3 | 11.9 | 14.1 | -2.2 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 83.7 |
| G.WILSON, NYJ | WR | 3 | 13.5 | 14 | -0.5 | 0 | 7.3 | 70.3 |
| G.PICKENS, PIT | WR | 3 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 0.5 | 0 | 7.7 | 79.3 |
| T.LOCKETT, SEA | WR | 3 | 12.4 | 13.7 | -1.3 | 0 | 7 | 70.3 |
| D.PIERCE, HOU | RB | 3 | 9 | 13.7 | -4.7 | 13.3 | 3 | 1 |
| D.SWIFT, PHI | RB | 3 | 14.4 | 13.6 | 0.8 | 15 | 2.3 | -1 |
| B.AIYUK, SF | WR | 2 | 20.1 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 0 | 7 | 95 |
| C.KIRK, JAX | WR | 3 | 13.1 | 13.4 | -0.3 | 0 | 7.7 | 60.3 |
| R.DOUBS, GB | WR | 3 | 14 | 13.3 | 0.7 | 0 | 6.7 | 79.3 |
| J.GIBBS, DET | RB | 3 | 9.9 | 13.3 | -3.4 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 5.7 |
| K.GAINWELL, PHI | RB | 2 | 8.6 | 13.1 | -4.5 | 14 | 3 | 15.5 |
| D.SMITH, PHI | WR | 3 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 3 | 0 | 6.7 | 93.7 |
| J.WILLIAMS, DEN | RB | 3 | 8.7 | 12.9 | -4.2 | 12 | 4 | -2.3 |
| Z.JONES, JAX | WR | 2 | 8.3 | 12.9 | -4.6 | 0 | 6.5 | 79 |
| B.ROBINSON, WAS | RB | 3 | 16.5 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 15.7 | 1.7 | -4.7 |
| S.LAPORTA, DET | TE | 3 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 1.4 | 0 | 7.3 | 46.3 |
| J.FERGUSON, DAL | TE | 3 | 7.7 | 12.6 | -4.9 | 0 | 6 | 19.3 |
| J.FORD, CLE | RB | 3 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 2.7 | 13.7 | 2.3 | 8.3 |
| C.GODWIN, TB | WR | 3 | 9.7 | 12 | -2.3 | 0 | 6.3 | 55.7 |
| M.ANDREWS, BAL | TE | 2 | 11.5 | 12 | -0.5 | 0 | 6.5 | 39 |
| D.METCALF, SEA | WR | 3 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 2.9 | 0 | 6.3 | 87.3 |
| J.JEUDY, DEN | WR | 2 | 9.3 | 11.9 | -2.6 | 0 | 6 | 81.5 |
| Z.ERTZ, ARI | TE | 3 | 7.4 | 11.9 | -4.5 | 0 | 6.7 | 42.7 |
| D.WALLER, NYG | TE | 3 | 8.4 | 11.9 | -3.5 | 0 | 6.7 | 61.3 |
| J.ADDISON, MIN | WR | 3 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 2.6 | 0 | 6.3 | 81.7 |
| T.BOYD, CIN | WR | 3 | 7.7 | 11.8 | -4.1 | 0 | 6.7 | 31.3 |
| E.ENGRAM, JAX | TE | 3 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 7 | 24.7 |
| D.MONTGOMERY, DET | RB | 2 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 1.3 | 18.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| J.WARREN, PIT | RB | 3 | 9.2 | 11.5 | -2.3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | -6.7 |
| J.MINGO, CAR | WR | 3 | 4.8 | 11.5 | -6.7 | 0 | 6.3 | 79.3 |
| K.PITTS, ATL | TE | 3 | 6.2 | 11.4 | -5.2 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 67 |
| T.ALLGEIER, ATL | RB | 3 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 0 | 12.7 | 2 | -0.3 |
| D.CHARK, CAR | WR | 2 | 10.6 | 11.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 6 | 99 |
| D.JOHNSON, PIT | WR | 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | -3.4 | 0 | 6 | 78 |
| J.HILL, BAL | RB | 2 | 10.6 | 11.1 | -0.5 | 9.5 | 1.5 | -3 |
| L.THOMAS, WAS | TE | 2 | 9.3 | 11 | -1.7 | 0 | 5.5 | 34 |
| N.CHUBB, CLE | RB | 2 | 11.6 | 11 | 0.6 | 14 | 2 | 0.5 |
| D.ACHANE, MIA | RB | 2 | 26.6 | 11 | 15.6 | 9.5 | 2.5 | -5 |
| H.HENRY, NE | TE | 3 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 1.6 | 0 | 6 | 50.7 |
| J.DOBBINS, BAL | RB | 1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 0.9 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| D.SLAYTON, NYG | WR | 3 | 6.6 | 10.5 | -3.9 | 0 | 5.7 | 82 |
| J.KELLEY, LAC | RB | 3 | 7.2 | 10.5 | -3.3 | 13.3 | 1 | 2.7 |
| G.KITTLE, SF | TE | 3 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | 0 | 6 | 38.7 |
| G.DAVIS, BUF | WR | 3 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 5 | 83.3 |
| J.WADDLE, MIA | WR | 2 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 71 |
| B.COOKS, DAL | WR | 2 | 4 | 10.3 | -6.3 | 0 | 5.5 | 46 |
| R.JOHNSON, CHI | RB | 3 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| A.DILLON, GB | RB | 3 | 5.4 | 9.9 | -4.5 | 13 | 1.3 | -0.7 |
| K.HERBERT, CHI | RB | 3 | 7.2 | 9.9 | -2.7 | 7.7 | 3.3 | -5 |
| K.OSBORN, MIN | WR | 3 | 9.7 | 9.8 | -0.1 | 0 | 5 | 51.7 |
| D.LONDON, ATL | WR | 3 | 7.9 | 9.8 | -1.9 | 0 | 5 | 42 |
| D.JACKSON, IND | RB | 2 | 1.9 | 9.8 | -7.9 | 6.5 | 3 | -3 |
| D.MOORE, CHI | WR | 3 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 1.5 | 0 | 5 | 68.3 |
| C.AUSTIN, PIT | WR | 3 | 8.9 | 9.7 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 59.7 |
| D.PARKER, NE | WR | 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | -1.8 | 0 | 5.5 | 50 |
| N.HARRIS, PIT | RB | 3 | 5.7 | 9.4 | -3.7 | 11.7 | 2 | 2.3 |
| T.MCLAURIN, WAS | WR | 3 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 0 | 5.3 | 49 |
| J.DOTSON, WAS | WR | 3 | 6.1 | 9.3 | -3.2 | 0 | 5.3 | 39.3 |
| T.JONES, NO | RB | 3 | 8.4 | 9.2 | -0.8 | 7 | 2 | -1.7 |
| P.CAMPBELL, NYG | WR | 3 | 5.2 | 9.2 | -4 | 0 | 5.3 | 20 |
| R.RICE, KC | WR | 3 | 8.8 | 9.2 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 31.3 |
| L.MUSGRAVE, GB | TE | 3 | 7.8 | 9.2 | -1.4 | 0 | 5 | 57.3 |
| J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, NE | WR | 3 | 5.5 | 9.2 | -3.7 | 0 | 5.3 | 31 |
| C.KMET, CHI | TE | 3 | 7.1 | 9 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 5 | 29 |
| E.ELLIOTT, NE | RB | 3 | 6.1 | 8.9 | -2.8 | 9.3 | 2.7 | -8 |
| J.SMITH, ATL | TE | 3 | 5.8 | 8.9 | -3.1 | 0 | 4.7 | 30.7 |
| T.HIGBEE, LA | TE | 3 | 8.1 | 8.7 | -0.6 | 0 | 5 | 36 |
| J.WILLIAMS, NO | RB | 2 | 5.1 | 8.7 | -3.6 | 13.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| D.GOEDERT, PHI | TE | 3 | 5.8 | 8.6 | -2.8 | 0 | 5 | 27.3 |
| K.GRANSON, IND | TE | 3 | 7.1 | 8.6 | -1.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 23.7 |
| M.HOLLINS, ATL | WR | 3 | 6.1 | 8.6 | -2.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 59 |
| T.BURKS, TEN | WR | 3 | 5.6 | 8.5 | -2.9 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 78.3 |
| A.ROBINSON, PIT | WR | 3 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 5 | 30.7 |
| T.MARSHALL, CAR | WR | 3 | 4.3 | 8.4 | -4.1 | 0 | 4.7 | 51.7 |
| W.ROBINSON, NYG | WR | 1 | 6.1 | 8.4 | -2.3 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
| C.CLAYPOOL, CHI | WR | 3 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | 0 | 4.7 | 53 |
| L.MURRAY, BUF | RB | 3 | 7.6 | 8.4 | -0.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1 |
| S.PERINE, DEN | RB | 3 | 7.2 | 8.4 | -1.2 | 4 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| J.REYNOLDS, DET | WR | 3 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 0 | 4.3 | 50.7 |
| R.SHAHEED, NO | WR | 3 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 1.5 | 1 | 4 | 78 |
| M.GORDON, BAL | RB | 1 | 7.5 | 8.3 | -0.8 | 10 | 2 | 5 |
| J.PALMER, LAC | WR | 3 | 6.8 | 8.2 | -1.4 | 0 | 4.3 | 51.7 |
| S.MOORE, KC | WR | 3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 47.3 |
| D.SCHULTZ, HOU | TE | 3 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -4.3 | 0 | 4.7 | 29 |
| T.SPEARS, TEN | RB | 3 | 5.4 | 8.2 | -2.8 | 5 | 3.3 | 14.3 |
| H.HURST, CAR | TE | 3 | 7.4 | 8.1 | -0.7 | 0 | 4.3 | 32.3 |
| A.LAZARD, NYJ | WR | 3 | 5.9 | 8 | -2.1 | 0 | 4.3 | 62 |
| I.SMITH, CIN | TE | 2 | 3.9 | 8 | -4.1 | 0 | 4.5 | 21 |
| J.SMITH-NJIGBA, SEA | WR | 3 | 4.9 | 8 | -3.1 | 0 | 4.7 | 12.7 |
| V.JEFFERSON, LA | WR | 3 | 4.8 | 7.9 | -3.1 | 0.3 | 4 | 73.3 |
| D.COOK, NYJ | RB | 3 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | 8.3 | 2.3 | -4.7 |
| K.BOUTTE, NE | WR | 1 | 0 | 7.9 | -7.9 | 0 | 4 | 84 |
| D.KNOX, BUF | TE | 3 | 5.9 | 7.8 | -1.9 | 0 | 3.7 | 17.3 |
| A.PIERCE, IND | WR | 3 | 4.5 | 7.7 | -3.2 | 0 | 4 | 68.7 |
| C.TURNER, WAS | TE | 3 | 4.8 | 7.6 | -2.8 | 0 | 3.7 | 26.3 |
| G.EVERETT, LAC | TE | 3 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 4 | 11.3 |
| B.HALL, NYJ | RB | 3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | -0.7 | 8.7 | 2 | -0.3 |
| D.DOUGLAS, NE | WR | 3 | 4.3 | 7.5 | -3.2 | 0.3 | 4 | 51.7 |
| K.HUNT, CLE | RB | 1 | 5.5 | 7.4 | -1.9 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| C.SAMUEL, WAS | WR | 3 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 4 | 34.3 |
| D.WICKS, GB | WR | 3 | 6.8 | 7.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 4 | 45.3 |
| C.HUBBARD, CAR | RB | 3 | 7.1 | 7.3 | -0.2 | 4 | 3.3 | -5.7 |
| D.FOREMAN, CHI | RB | 1 | 4.4 | 7.3 | -2.9 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| K.TONEY, KC | WR | 3 | 3.6 | 7.2 | -3.6 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 11.7 |
| E.MITCHELL, SF | RB | 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | -2.9 | 8 | 2 | -10 |
| T.HUDSON, CIN | TE | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 33 |
| D.SMYTHE, MIA | TE | 3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | -1.8 | 0 | 3.7 | 29.3 |
| J.JOHNSON, NO | TE | 3 | 4.4 | 6.9 | -2.5 | 0 | 4 | 23.3 |
| T.CONKLIN, NYJ | TE | 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | -1.2 | 0 | 4 | 21.3 |
| D.KINCAID, BUF | TE | 3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | -0.7 | 0 | 4 | 13.7 |
| C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KC | RB | 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 1.3 | -1.7 |
| M.GALLUP, DAL | WR | 3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 3.7 | 41.7 |
| R.DOWDLE, DAL | RB | 3 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 1.3 | -5.3 |
| N.BROWN, HOU | WR | 1 | 4.9 | 6.7 | -1.8 | 1 | 4 | -13 |
| R.MOORE, ARI | WR | 3 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 11.7 |
| D.HARTY, BUF | WR | 3 | 3.3 | 6.6 | -3.3 | 1 | 3.3 | 24.7 |
| M.MIMS, DEN | WR | 3 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1 | 3 | 73.7 |
| K.RAYMOND, DET | WR | 3 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 55.3 |
| S.AHMED, MIA | RB | 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | -2.4 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
| D.PARHAM, LAC | TE | 3 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0 | 2.3 | 15 |
| N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TEN | WR | 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0 | 3.3 | 19.3 |
| O.BECKHAM, BAL | WR | 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 3.5 | 39 |
| C.OTTON, TB | TE | 3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | -0.8 | 0 | 3.7 | 18 |
| P.FREIERMUTH, PIT | TE | 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26.3 |
| M.GESICKI, NE | TE | 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | -0.3 | 0 | 3.3 | 33 |
| G.EDWARDS, BAL | RB | 3 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 0 | 0 |
| B.JOHNSON, DEN | WR | 3 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 0 | 3 | 36.3 |
| B.BERRIOS, MIA | WR | 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | -0.3 | 0 | 3.3 | 44.7 |
| N.AGHOLOR, BAL | WR | 3 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0 | 3.3 | 43.7 |
| D.NJOKU, CLE | TE | 3 | 5.7 | 6 | -0.3 | 0 | 3.7 | 6.7 |
| K.MILLER, NO | RB | 1 | 4.4 | 6 | -1.6 | 9 | 1 | -4 |
| A.GIBSON, WAS | RB | 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | -1.7 | 2.3 | 3 | -3.3 |
| D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLE | WR | 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | -2 | 0 | 3.3 | 33.7 |
| Z.CHARBONNET, SEA | RB | 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | -2 | 5.3 | 1.3 | -0.7 |
| J.MCKINNON, KC | RB | 3 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1 | 2.7 | 0 |
| N.GRAY, KC | TE | 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 0 | 3.3 | 20.7 |
| C.OKONKWO, TEN | TE | 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | -2 | 0 | 3.3 | 16.3 |
| R.CRACRAFT, MIA | WR | 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 0 | 2.7 | 25 |
| T.SERMON, IND | RB | 1 | 3.1 | 5.7 | -2.6 | 5 | 2 | -1 |
| D.HARRIS, BUF | RB | 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | -0.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0 |
| I.HODGINS, NYG | WR | 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 0 | 3 | 27.3 |
| S.TOURE, GB | WR | 3 | 2.5 | 5.5 | -3 | 0 | 2.7 | 55 |
| T.BIGSBY, JAX | RB | 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | -1.3 | 3 | 1 | 0.7 |
| R.BATEMAN, BAL | WR | 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 26.7 |
| N.FANT, SEA | TE | 3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 0 | 3 | 24.7 |
| K.DRAKE, BAL | RB | 1 | 3.1 | 5.2 | -2.1 | 1 | 3 | -4 |
| A.TRAUTMAN, DEN | TE | 3 | 2.8 | 5.2 | -2.4 | 0 | 2.7 | 7 |
| C.PARKINSON, SEA | TE | 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | -0.2 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| D.SINGLETARY, HOU | RB | 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | -1.3 | 6.7 | 1 | -1 |
| P.TAYLOR, GB | RB | 3 | 2.7 | 5 | -2.3 | 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| J.OLIVER, MIN | TE | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2.7 | 5.7 |
| D.MOONEY, CHI | WR | 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 0 | 2.7 | 27.7 |
| Q.JOHNSTON, LAC | WR | 3 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | 0 | 2.7 | 19 |
| J.BATES, WAS | TE | 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | -1 | 0 | 2.3 | 15 |
| M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KC | WR | 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0 | 2.3 | 38 |
| D.THOMPKINS, TB | WR | 3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | -2.2 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 22.7 |
| J.JENNINGS, SF | WR | 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | -0.2 | 0 | 2.3 | 35 |
| W.DISSLY, SEA | TE | 2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0 | 2.5 | 6 |
| A.ABDULLAH, LV | RB | 3 | 1.7 | 4.1 | -2.4 | 0 | 2.3 | 8 |
| J.AGNEW, JAX | WR | 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 2 | 19.3 |
| A.MCFARLAND, PIT | RB | 1 | 3.1 | 3.8 | -0.7 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| T.CHANDLER, MIN | RB | 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | -2.3 |
| P.STRONG, CLE | RB | 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | -0.9 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| K.TURPIN, DAL | WR | 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| T.PALMER, TB | WR | 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0 | 2 | 19.7 |
| W.MALLORY, IND | TE | 1 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0 | 2 | 27 |
| M.JONES, DET | WR | 3 | 0.3 | 3.6 | -3.3 | 0 | 2 | 16.7 |
| G.BRIGHTWELL, NYG | RB | 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | -0.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 |
| G.DULCICH, DEN | TE | 1 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0 | 2 | 19 |
| S.TUCKER, TB | RB | 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | -1.8 | 5 | 0.7 | -1 |
| M.BREIDA, NYG | RB | 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | -3.3 |
| T.MCBRIDE, ARI | TE | 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 | 10.3 |
| C.MOORE, TEN | WR | 3 | 4 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0 | 1.7 | 42.3 |
| M.GOODWIN, CLE | WR | 3 | 0 | 3.3 | -3.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 56.3 |
| H.BRYANT, CLE | TE | 3 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4.3 |
| M.CARTER, NYJ | RB | 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | -0.8 | 1 | 1.7 | 3.7 |
| B.SKOWRONEK, LA | WR | 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -1.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6 |
| T.SCOTT, CHI | WR | 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | -1.5 | 0 | 1.7 | 15.3 |
| J.HILL, MIA | TE | 1 | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| D.VAUGHN, DAL | RB | 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | -0.8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| J.TOLBERT, DAL | WR | 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | -1.5 | 0 | 1.7 | 24 |
| M.BOONE, HOU | RB | 2 | 2.4 | 3.1 | -0.7 | 0 | 2 | -3.5 |
| R.PENNY, PHI | RB | 1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | -0.7 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
| D.DUVERNAY, BAL | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 3 | -2.5 | 1 | 1.3 | 19 |
| L.HUMPHREY, DEN | WR | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1.3 | 11.7 |
| E.EZUKANMA, MIA | WR | 2 | 1.1 | 3 | -1.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4 |
| B.JORDAN, HOU | TE | 3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0 | 1.3 | 8 |
| T.WILLIAMS, CIN | RB | 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | -1.5 | 1 | 1.3 | -4.7 |
| C.EVANS, CIN | RB | 1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | -0.5 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| T.MONTGOMERY, NE | WR | 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 7 |
| K.INGRAM, ARI | RB | 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 4 | 0.3 | -1.7 |
| D.JOHNSON, JAX | RB | 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | -0.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 1.3 |
| J.METCHIE, HOU | WR | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1.5 | 6.5 |
| D.BROWN, WAS | WR | 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 1.3 | 13 |
| R.COBB, NYJ | WR | 3 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -1.7 | 0 | 1.3 | 10.3 |
| L.SHENAULT, CAR | WR | 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 1 | -4 |
| M.HEATH, GB | WR | 3 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 | 0 | 1.3 | 14.7 |
| B.SCOTT, PHI | RB | 2 | 3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| I.LIKELY, BAL | TE | 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 0 | 1.3 | 9 |
| D.BELL, CLE | WR | 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.3 | 7.3 |
| P.HENDERSHOT, DAL | TE | 3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 6 |
| R.CHOSEN, MIA | WR | 1 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 11.5 | 0 | 1 | 41 |
| B.BELL, KC | TE | 3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0 | 1 | 4.3 |
| E.HULL, IND | RB | 1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | -0.5 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| J.BOBO, SEA | WR | 3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| J.HYATT, NYG | WR | 3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 30 |
| C.REYNOLDS, DET | RB | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
| P.DORSETT, DEN | WR | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| K.KIRKWOOD, NO | WR | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 12.3 |
| O.ZACCHEAUS, PHI | WR | 3 | 4.6 | 2 | 2.6 | 0 | 1 | 19 |
| D.DALLAS, SEA | RB | 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1 |
| K.KIEFT, TB | TE | 3 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 0 | 1 | 17 |
| J.MCLAUGHLIN, DEN | RB | 3 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 2 | 0.3 | -2.3 |
| L.SCHOONMAKER, DAL | TE | 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| H.RENFROW, LV | WR | 3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| M.ALIE-COX, IND | TE | 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 12.3 |
| A.HOOPER, LV | TE | 3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 11.3 |
| E.DOTSON, LAC | RB | 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | -0.3 |
| F.MOREAU, NO | TE | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 |
| M.WILCOX, CIN | TE | 3 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| T.JONES, JAX | WR | 3 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| D.CARTER, LV | WR | 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| T.SHERFIELD, BUF | WR | 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | -0.4 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Q.WATKINS, PHI | WR | 2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Z.WHITE, LV | RB | 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| L.CAGER, NYG | TE | 2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| E.DEMERCADO, ARI | RB | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 1 | 0.7 | -1.7 |
| M.MAYER, LV | TE | 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.7 |
| Z.KNIGHT, DET | RB | 1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | -0.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| C.BROOKS, MIA | RB | 3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| T.TUCKER, LV | WR | 2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 21 |
| R.BELL, SF | WR | 3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 7.7 |
| S.SHEPARD, NYG | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.7 | 5 |
| J.STOLL, PHI | TE | 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.7 | 4 |
| X.HUTCHINSON, HOU | WR | 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | 6.7 |
| D.DAVIS, LAC | WR | 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -3 |
| R.TONYAN, CHI | TE | 3 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 0.7 | 7.3 |
| K.SHAKIR, BUF | WR | 3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | 3.7 |
| P.BROWN, NE | TE | 3 | 5 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.7 | 7.3 |
| J.DEGUARA, GB | TE | 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| D.BELLINGER, NYG | TE | 3 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 1 |
| B.WRIGHT, DET | TE | 3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 2 |
| D.OGUNBOWALE, HOU | RB | 1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| B.HOPKINS, LA | TE | 3 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 3.7 |
| Z.PASCAL, ARI | WR | 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| J.AKINS, CLE | TE | 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| J.ROSS, KC | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | 4 |
| T.QUITORIANO, HOU | TE | 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| C.EDMONDS, TB | RB | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| D.WELLS, TB | TE | 3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.7 | 0 |
| B.STRANGE, JAX | TE | 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| C.JONES, CIN | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | 2 |
| I.MCKENZIE, IND | WR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| C.KOLAR, BAL | TE | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0 | 0.5 | 6 |
| J.FUNK, IND | RB | 3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 |
| I.SPILLER, LAC | RB | 2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| A.GREEN, DET | WR | 2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| N.ADKINS, DEN | TE | 2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| J.GRAHAM, NO | TE | 3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.7 |
| C.RODRIGUEZ, WAS | RB | 3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| R.JARRETT, TB | WR | 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| S.SMARTT, LAC | TE | 3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 7 |
| H.LUEPKE, DAL | RB | 3 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| C.MANHERTZ, DEN | TE | 3 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.3 | 4 |
| T.TREMBLE, CAR | TE | 3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 5.3 |
| K.HODGE, ATL | WR | 3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 |
| M.BOYKIN, PIT | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| C.UZOMAH, NYJ | TE | 3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| T.WESCO, TEN | TE | 3 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| M.HARDMAN, NYJ | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| M.PRUITT, ATL | TE | 3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| I.THOMAS, CAR | TE | 3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| L.FARRELL, JAX | TE | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | -1 |
| D.SAMPLE, CIN | TE | 3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | -1.3 |
| G.RICCI, CAR | TE | 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| J.MASON, SF | RB | 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| R.RIVERS, LA | RB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| B.PRINGLE, WAS | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| C.BROWN, CIN | RB | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
WEEK 4 BUY-LOW
| Player | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 3 | 11 | 18.2 | -7.2 | 0 | 9.3 | 121 |
Tee Higgins is a great grab right now based on several factors. He had the blowup game in Week 2 when he had eight catches for 89 yards and 2 TDs, but he has otherwise been a dud. Yet, despite only having two catches for 21 yards in Weeks 1 and 3 combined, he was targeted 16 times in those two games. The volume is there, and Higgins is a great player.
Joe Burrow won’t be hobbled all year (I hope), so the fantasy numbers will come for Higgins. Based on displayed talent and the XFP differential, this is still a high-end WR2. Oh, and he gets the Tennessee pass funnel in Week 4. Buy now, before it’s too late.
| Player | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | 3 | 12.1 | 16.4 | -4.3 | 0 | 8.7 | 90.7 |
This suggestion is based on the eye test as well as the data. Owners celebrated Calvin Ridley after the first week with his eight catches for 101 yards with a TD. I cautioned people then to temper their excitement. However, it seems that many owners have now gone too far the opposite way on Ridley after a combined five catches for 72 yards in the past two weeks.
The key here for Ridley is that he still has had over seven targets over the past two weeks, with Trevor Lawrence struggling. Ridley also dropped a TD in both games, which would have changed the perception of those performances. Ultimately, this talented player is featured in the red zone and still getting targets—another great WR2 who can be had for less now.
WEEK 4 SELL-HIGH
| Player | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
| Zack Moss | RB | 2 | 21.6 | 18.6 | 3 | 24 | 3.5 | 5 |
Has everybody lost their damn minds? Everyone sprinted to add Zack Moss and are now gushing over the Colts’ run game. To be honest, I don’t really get it.
We know who Zack Moss is. My dude is the exact definition of, ‘Just a Guy.’
Moss has never shown this level of efficiency or production at any point in his career, as he has been mostly just a plodder. He got 30 carries in a close Week 3 game with Anthony Richardson in concussion protocol.
This will not be the norm for the Colts.
Once Richardson is back in the lineup, expect opposing defenses to focus more on the run, as is typical when playing against rookie quarterbacks. Moss’ numbers will drop because he is currently playing at a +3 xFP differential, and only elite players should be expected to maintain that production.
There is also the Jonathan Taylor saga returning in a week. Taylor does not want to play for Indianapolis anymore, so I’m not entirely sold that he even comes back in Week 5, but it’s possible. It is also possible that the Colts will acquire another running back in a Taylor trade or sign one of the veteran free agents.
Basically, we have a player who is overproducing based on his normal baseline, we have question marks about his future role, and it’s unsustainable to regularly have 25-plus touches. All of these factors make Moss an easy sell right now.
| Player | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | 3 | 10 | 17.9 | -7.9 | 15 | 4.7 | 9.3 |
Wait, aren’t we identifying players with a negative differential and targeting them as buy lows, not the other way around? Well, yes, usually, but I think Josh Jacobs is an interesting case.
Jacobs has been mediocre through three games, with an average of roughly 67 all-purpose yards per game and no touchdowns. It’s not terrible, but certainly not what drafters were expecting after last year’s performance. In my opinion, Jacobs will get back some of that differential, and the points will rise once he starts to score. However, I do not think Jacobs will reproduce what he did last year, not even close, due to his extended holdout and potentially wearing down after an extremely heavy workload last year.
I understand this is not considered a “sell-high” at all. It’s actually the opposite. But, if you can find an opposing manager who believes in Jacobs and wants to “buy-low” on the running back, sell him if you can net a low-end WR1, high-end WR2. or a more consistent RB2.
