Let’s peel back the layers of Week 3 fantasy football.
Volume is the lifeblood of fantasy football success. The Workload Report was created to help visualize the crucial snaps, targets, touches, air yards, and other advanced usage metrics that matter.
The Workload Report is broken into three distinct sections: opportunity, production, and results. The ultimate goal is to dive in and discover where these coveted fantasy points are coming from in Week 3 for every team. We’ll highlight several categories each week and dive into which players showed up and why.
In addition to the screenshots below, check out the full version of The Workload Report to dig into all the data yourself.
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(By Team, How to Use, Team Totals)
WEEK 3 FANTASY ALL-STARS
Dedicated to the players who break 30 PPR points each week
The Miami Dolphins are obviously the story of Week 3. After clearing 70 real-life points on the field, they unsurprisingly have three different players on the list this week. De’Von Achane came out of nowhere (1% PPR share in Weeks 1-2) to explode for 51.3 PPR Points. A lot of that production did come in garbage time though, so I am by no means writing off Raheem Mostert for potential concerns over Achane. Somehow, Tyreek Hill scoring 30.7 PPR points was almost an afterthought in this one.
It was a pretty good day for the old guys Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, and Adam Thielen. It’s hard to say that we’ve never seen it before from any of these guys, but it definitely is funny thinking about some of the hate these guys got over the summer due to their age. Note to self: early in the season, feel free to load up on the “olds.”
SAVED BY THE ENDZONE
These players may have a high fantasy score, but most of it was due to TD “luck.”
Anytime you catch two passes, and both are touchdowns, you are definitely going to make this list. That’s exactly what Donald Parham Jr. did against Minnesota, for a total of four yards. He did have a 52% snap share, and seeing how TD-dependent the TE position is, I think it might be worth taking a flyer on Parham now that Mike Williams is done for the year.
It was such a typical Gabe Davis outing on Sunday against the Commanders. A measly four targets for 1-35-1 is really what we’ve come to expect from him. It’s a shame that he doesn’t get a better target share because he has one of the most explosive fantasy environments around him. However, I don’t think he is a lock for your Flex position every week, and is purely a boom/bust TD-dependent play.
A TOUCHDOWN AWAY FROM BREAKING THE SLATE
Had any of these guys hit paydirt, we may have been hearing a lot more about them this week.
Technically, Keenan Allen did throw for a TD, so I guess he shouldn’t be on this list, but his 18 receptions for 215 yards with no receiving TDs seems worthy in itself. Almost everyone is talking about Allen this week with Williams done, so you can feel confident loading this WR1 up on a weekly basis. He has gotten off to a blazing start here in 2023.
Ja’Marr Chase finally had an alpha game this season, so everyone can breathe easy knowing the consensus No. 2 overall pick still has the juice. He actually had a pretty quiet 12-141-0 line in an otherwise low-scoring game on Monday night. As Burrow continues to get healthy and Chase plays a couple of weaker defenses (hello, Titans in Week 4), everyone will quickly forget about the first two duds.
DOMINATING THE DOMINATOR RATING
(Rec. Yds + Rush Yds)/(Team Rec. Yds + Team Rush Yds) + TD Share + Air Yd Share (WR/TEs)
When I review this list, I like to focus on the players who made it with the least amount of touchdowns scored. Zack Moss is a very impressive inclusion on the list this week, as he played 76% of the snaps against the Ravens and had 33 total opportunities (carries + receptions). Anyone getting 30+ touches in a game will grade out as a really nice fantasy option moving forward. Load him up…until Jonathan Taylor comes back (and ohhh baby when/if Taylor does come back, it’s wheels up).
Amari Cooper balled out against the Titans (going to be one of my favorite secondaries to pick on this year), and saw 145 Air Yards and a solid 0.63 WOPR. The Browns are bubbling into a condensed offense now that Nick Chubb is out, so we should be able to lean on a safe floor from Cooper moving forward.
AIR YARDS= FUTURE PRODUCTION
Who saw Air Yards > 35%, but fantasy share < 20% this week?
This is arguably the most impactful section each week, and I try to spend the most time parsing through the numbers. There are three different buckets that we can separate these players into:
Ready to Explode: In this bucket, I want to look for players who have seen a solid WOPR to start the year, but whose RACR has not been efficient, if the opportunity share holds, the efficiency should bubble up and create a big week. Calvin Ridley, Darius Slayton, and Treylon Burks fit this description.
Certified Studs: These guys are seeing a ton of Air Yards, and their RACR is also relatively high. In other words, the big games should keep rolling for Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, and George Kittle.
Potentially Smoke & Mirrors: All of these guys have some sort of red flag. Either their WOPR isn’t very high, meaning they have just seen a couple of long bombs (“Prayer Yards), or they’ve never really consistently shown signs of an efficient RACR in the past, so there’s no sense trying to hold out hope this year. Alec Pierce, DJ Chark, and Kyle Pitts headline the more cautious part of this list.
RECEIVING ALPHA DOGS
Anything above a 0.8 WOPR is considered ‘ELITE.‘
Now that we’ve got a couple of extra weeks of data here to start the year, we can really start to draw conclusions about how a player’s performance this past week is trending against his performances from the last month or so. In the WOPR category, we, of course, want to look for consistency and not just a one-week blip.
Tee Higgins almost jumps out of the page with that bright red RACR. This means that Higgins is getting all the opportunity that we want from him, but has been wildly inefficient to date with it. Since 2021, Higgins has had a RACR of 0.88 and has never seen a WOPR this high. There is likely some serious correction to the mean coming for both of these statistics, but I’d like to bet on the Air Yard conversion happening first. It’s wheels up. Oh, and he plays the Titans in Week 4.
On the flip side, you could argue that Michael Pittman may be overperforming a bit here compared to his career statistics. He’s also getting his WOPR on fewer Air Yards than the other guys on this list. I still think he is Anthony Richardson’s preferred target. However, with the last week and a half playing with the more pass-heavy Gardner Minshew, I could see Pittman taking a little step back here.
Which players commanded more than 70% of their team’s rushing yards?
Josh Jacobs is due for a big week in this ultra-condensed Raiders offense. It’s him, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and nobody else. His Week 1-2 Rushing Share is slightly skewed by a really weird Week 2 rushing performance, but I think ten receptions through 3 weeks is a great sign for him. I want to keep making bets on this Raiders offense.
The only thing to be concerned about with Bijan Robinson is how dysfunctional the Atlanta Falcons offense seemingly is on a week-to-week basis. He’s got 14 receptions through 3 weeks, and his rushing share keeps ticking up. More long drives and fewer 3-and-outs will definitely benefit the rookie stud. He is trending in the right direction.
Non-WRs who saw a hefty receiving share this week
Not too many RBs made the cut this week, but that’s okay because we have a few fun TEs to discuss. First, Sam LaPorta seems like he’s got the makings of a league winner just three games into his rookie campaign. He’s been incredibly consistent in gaining targets, and his 11 in Week 3 doubled his total from the first two weeks.
Tyler Higbee finally had the kind of game we were expecting from him long before Puka Nacua became a household fantasy football name. He’s on the field for almost every play, so we really want to see that target share keep rising—great 5-71-0 line in Week 3 on Monday night.
LOSING GRIP ON RB1 STATUS
These RBs are all seeing decreases in their USG rating.
Well, it’s definitely not a good thing to see AJ Dillon make this list after another week with Aaron Jones banged up and inactive. We expect his usage to rise, not fall when Jones is out. You could chalk it up to the Packers being in comeback mode for a lot of the 2nd half, but I think it’s mainly due to his lack of efficiency to start the year. It appears that Dillon is mainly a bruiser meant to score TDs in the snow at Lambeau, and he’s tough to be trusted as a reliable every-down back.
Derrick Henry and Brian Robinson Jr. both make this list, but I think their game scripts are the main reason for this. I think the Titans are being hyper-cognizant of Henry’s usage early this season to keep the Big Dog healthy down the stretch. As for Robinson, the Commanders really got their butts kicked by the Bills and were down huge most of the game. It’s a bit concerning not to see him utilized much in a trailing game script, but I’m okay riding it out for a couple more weeks and seeing how his splits with Antonio Gibson keep trending.